889
FXUS66 KEKA 142105
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
105 PM PST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
CLEARER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOST LIKELY BUILD EARLY
SUNDAY WITH MORE CONSISTENT RAIN LATER SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY,
OVERALL RAIN WILL AND WIND WILL BE MINOR TO MODERATE AND AGAIN
FOCUSED IN LAKE AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES.
DISCUSSION
IN THE WAKE OF RECENT RAIN, MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR HAS GENERALLY MOVED ACROSS THE AREA. ASIDE FORM AREAS
OF VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT, SKIES HAVE CLEARED ALL ACROSS THE AREA,
INCLUDING THE COAST. DESPITE COOLER AIR, HIGH DEWPOINTS IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS IN EXCESS OF 40 WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE TO RESTRICT FROST
FORMATION TONIGHT.
CLEARER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY, BUT ANOTHER CUTOFF TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA AROUND SUNDAY. SIMILAR TO THIS PAST
SYSTEM, THERE WILL BE TWO INTERACTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WHICH AD
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOWS IN TWO DIRECTIONS, BOTH FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE FROM THE WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL MOST LIKELY PRODUCE AN
INITIAL, WEAK ROUND OF RAIN MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST TO THE THE
NORTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEMS WILL BE
FOCUSED IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR.
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS WAVE WOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH A 90%
CHANCE OF BEING BELOW 0.2 INCHES.
A MUCH STRONGER WAVE OF RAIN WILL MOVE ONSHORE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, WITH MOST LIKELY 24 HOUR
RAINFALL OF 1.0 TO 1.6 INCHES OF RAIN SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. MOST
LIKELY AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH ARE CLOSER TO 0.8 TO 1.2 INCHES.
ENSEMBLES SHOW VERY LITTLE HIGHER END MOISTURE PLUME POTENTIAL, SO
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL MUCH ABOVE THE MOST LIKELY
RANGES EXCEPTED IN ISOLATED, RAIN ENHANCED AREAS. SUCH RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL BE MOSTLY BENEFICIAL WITH ONLY MINOR IMPACTS.
NEITHER WAVE OF THE RAIN SYSTEMS SHOWS MUCH POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL
WINDS EITHER. EVEN THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE WINDS SHOW SOUTHERLY
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH FOR A SHORT PERIOD ON MONDAY. SUCH WINDS WILL
ONLY PRODUCE A MILD RISK INCREASE FOR TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD PERSIST UNTIL AROUND NEXT TUESDAY. COLDER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY FINALLY BRING SOME
OF THE FIRST PROPER FREEZES OF THE SEASON TO MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
WITH NBM SHOWING A 20 TO 35% CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD LOWS BELOW 32 ON
FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION...18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FIRMLY IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO IMPACT UKI THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE (30%) UKIAH COULD SEE
STRATUS OR FOG FORMATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS BUT
ADDITIONAL INLAND VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THIS 18Z PERIOD. JJW
MARINE
CALMER CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS SLOWLY EASE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE GOOD TO EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE
SHORT PERIOD SEAS CALM DOWN. THERE WILL BE A QUICK BURST OF
NORTHERLY WINDS 15-20KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.
WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY TURN SOUTHERN SUNDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE DETAILS ON HOW THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EVOLVES WITH THIS
TROUGH. MODELS ARE BETTER RESOLVING A QUICKLY STRENGTHENING SURFACE
LOW SOMEWHERE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE SUNDAY OR
MONDAY. SUSTAINED GALE TO STRONG GALE, AND EVEN STORM STRENGTH GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE SURFACE LOW BRUSHES CLOSER TO OUR COAST AS
IT DIVES SOUTH. MODELS ARE LIKELY NOT RESOLVING THE DETAILS OF THIS
FORECAST WELL DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE QUICKLY DEVELOPING LOW. SOME
MODELS DEVELOP THE SURFACE FARTHER SOUTH AROUND POINT AREA. THIS
WOULD BRING LESS IMPACTS TO OUR WATERS, BUT WOULD STILL BRING A
POTENTIAL FOR GALE GUSTS. WILL BE RAMPING UP THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL THREAT AND GALE WATCHES MAY BE UP SOON. STAY
TUNED TO THIS DEVELOPING FORECAST. JJW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ450-455-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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