154
FXUS66 KEKA 162009
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1209 PM PST SUN NOV 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BREEZY WINDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
MENDOCINO COUNTY ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH WIDESPREAD FROST AND INTERIOR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE BEING OBSERVED AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN (RATES OF 0.3 TO 0.5 INCHES AN HOUR)
ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF OVER 2.5
INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP
TONIGHT TO 4500-5000 FT, WHICH MAY BRING 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO
HIGHWAY 3 AT SCOTT MOUNTAIN PASS.
SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS, GENERALLY
PEAKING AROUND 20-30 MPH. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
OF 25-35 MPH ALONG THE COAST INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WATERS AND
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. WINDS COULD EXCEED 40
MPH AROUND THESE THUNDERSTORMS, SHOULD ANY DEVELOP.
BEHIND THE FRONT A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER OUR
AREA. WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLY FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT IF CLOUD COVERAGE HOLDS OFF.
NBM SHOWS HIGH CHANCES (>=50%) FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW 36F IN
TRINITY, EASTERN MENDOCINO, AND LAKE COUNTIES. CHANCES FOR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OF 32F OR LESS ARE ~30-50% IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS OF
TRINITY AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES. WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE COLDEST
MORNING, AND IF OFFSHORE FLOW IS WEAK ENOUGH, AREAS OF FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL AREAS AS WELL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
COOLER, WITH EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS STRUGGLING TO REACH 60.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN CHILLY THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS VALUES BEGIN
TO ALIGN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.
MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN AN ADDITIONAL SYSTEM
ARRIVING LATE NEXT WEEK, RETURNING WET WEATHER TO THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE ON IMPACTS IS LOW AT THIS POINT, BUT RAIN, GUSTY WINDS,
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE ALL POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED. JB/JJW
AVIATION
18Z TAFS.AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING DEGRADED
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS WILL SHIFT TO EVEN BREEZIER NORTHERLIES LATE THIS EVENING (~04-
06Z). RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD CREATING LIMITED VISIBILITIES AND
MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES. COASTAL SITES WILL SEE A HEAVIER BAND OF RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC LIFR
CONDITIONS. INLAND AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN WITH LOW CLOUDS OR
VALLEY FOG THROUGH THE MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
BY MID TO LATE EVENING FOR THE OUTER WATERS. HIGH RESOLUTION AND
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WIDE RANGE OF SCENARIOS THIS
EVENING. SOME ARE FASTER AND STRONGER WHILE OTHERS ARE SLOWER AND
WEAKER. AS OF MIDDAY, IT SEEMS THE FASTER SOLUTIONS ARE WINNING OUR.
HREF MODEL DATA SHOWS THAT OVER A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD, AN AREA WITH A
RADIUS OF 10KM HAS ABOUT A 70% CHANCES FOR GUSTS OVER 34KT BY MID TO
LATE EVENING IN THE OUTER WATERS. INNER WATERS ARE LESS CERTAIN WITH
TIMING, HOWEVER CHANCES FOR GUSTS >34KT INCREASE TO 70% OR MORE LATE
EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. VERY STEEP NORTHERLY WIND WAVES MIX WITH
TOP OF A LARGE SHORT PERIOD NW SWELL AROUND 15-17 FT AT 12-13
SECONDS WILL ALSO MAKE FOR EXCEPTIONALLY HAZARDOUS OCEAN CONDITIONS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE GLOBAL
AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEA
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY, THOUGH THE PEAK OF THE GALES
WILL LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE WINDS, SEAS REMAIN QUITE
ELEVATED AND STEEP. THUS, FOLLOWING THE GALE WITH A WARNING FOR SEAS
IS LIKELY. CONDITIONS SHOULD CALM DOWN ON WED, BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND GENERATES MORE IMPACTFUL WINDS AND SEAS
BY THU.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PST MONDAY
FOR PZZ450.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM PST MONDAY FOR
PZZ450-470.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ455.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PST MONDAY FOR
PZZ470.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM PST MONDAY FOR
PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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