416
FXUS66 KEKA 140857
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1257 AM PST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WETTER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN SUNDAY WITH A
GRADUALLY LIFTING MARINE LAYER. LIGHT RAIN WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE
NORTH COAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH HEAVIER RAIN SPREADING
SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE CURRENT, UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BUT BEGIN TO AUGMENT THROUGH THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER HAS STARTED TO SLIGHTLY LIFT
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH SHALLOW MARINE AND VALLEY FOG HAS PERSISTED.
FURTHER LIFTING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, GREATLY REDUCING THE
CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHALLOW FOG SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A WETTER PATTERN WILL BUILD IN
EARLY THIS WEEK. THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN WILL BUILD IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THIS ROUND WILL BE ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY
FOCUSED ON THE FOR NORTH COAST IN HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE WITH MOSTLY
LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY (80% CHANCE) THOUGH
WITH RAINFALL CLOSER TO 1.0 INCH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NEAR
CRESCENT CITY. LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA MONDAY
ANOTHER, STRONGER ROUND OF RAIN RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AND SPREAD
FURTHER SOUTH TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS ROUND WILL MOST
LIKELY HAVE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT,
WHICH MAY GENERATE VERY MINOR URBAN FLOODING. THIS SECOND ROUND WILL
SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH WITH ONLY A SLIGHT FOCUS ON THE NORTH COAST.
LOW ELEVATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS ROUND WILL MOST LIKELY BE BETWEEN
0.5 AND 1.5 INCHES WITH UPPER ELEVATION AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN. IN THIS RAIN, EVEN THE SOUTHERN MOST PART OF THE AREA IS
NEARLY GUARANTEED TO SEE WETTING RAIN.
BEYOND RAIN, ENHANCED SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BRIEFLY ARRIVE ALONGSIDE
THE RAIN. SIMILAR TO THE RAIN THOUGH MUCH WINDIER THAN ANY
CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE
TYPICAL FOR DECEMBER. PEAK WIND GUSTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE 25 TO 35 MPH WITH ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF IMPACTFUL GUSTS
OVER 45 MPH ON HIGH COASTAL RIDGES. WINDS GUSTS WILL MOST LIKELY BE
STRONGEST WITH THE SECOND ROUND OF RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE RAIN. PERSISTENT MUCH WARM THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS WILL
ELIMINATE ANY WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS AND WILL ALSO LIMIT THE
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE REMAINS GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE (80% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS)
THAT A WETTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER.
LONG RANGE FORECASTS HAVE PLACED A HIGHER RISK FOR A MODERATE TO
STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER NEAR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD
TRANSLATE INTO HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 6 INCHES AND WIND GUSTS OVER
50 MPH. ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS HIGH BUT HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED IN
CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. WITH PRECEDING RAIN, SOME
MINOR FLOODING WILL BECOME POSSIBLE WITH THIS ROUND BUT THE OVERALL
RISK REMAINS LOW WITH LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE OF ANY RIVERS REACHING
FLOOD STAGE. /JHW
AVIATION
A WIDESPREAD MARINE LAYER WITH STRATUS
BLANKETING THE COASTAL WATERS AND EXTENDED WELL UP THE ADJACENT
RIVER VALLEYS. THE PROFILERS INDICATES THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED
ABOUT 2000-2500 FT. MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A POTENTIAL (45-55% CHANCE) FOR A PERIOD OF LIFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 11Z-15Z AT ACV. OTHERWISE, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR WITH A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT
THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS, WITH MIXING CLOUDS.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAINS AT UKI. /ZVS
MARINE
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. GUSTS FROM 20 TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS, WITH THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. STRONG
WINDS AND STEEP-SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL PROMOTE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFTS ACROSS ZONE 470 SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY, BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTH BREEZES. A
MID- PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL AROUND 8 TO 10 FEET IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF FRONTAL
SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS
MID- TO LATE NEXT WEEK. /ZVS
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
NONE.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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