465
FXUS66 KEKA 142131
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
131 PM PST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ARRIVE FOR DEL
NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD BY TUESDAY FOR MENDOCINO AND LAKE.
MORE RAIN IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH EACH STORM, ESPECIALLY
LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THE LONG STRETCH OF UNSEASONABLY DRY WEATHER WILL
COME TO AN END THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS
IMPACTS NW CAL WITH BOUTS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS ROUND WILL BE ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY FOCUSED ON DEL NORTE
AND HUMBOLDT WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 0.10-0.25 INCHES PER HOUR
AND LOCALLY HEAVIER RATES OVER 0.50IN/HR FOR SW FACING ASPECTS OF
DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. HREF ENSEMBLE EXTREME HAS OVER
1 INCH/HOUR WHICH SEEMS EXECESSIVE. MUCH LIGHTER RAIN RATES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MENDOCINO AND LAKE TIL PERHAPS TUE WHEN MOIST PLUME
SAGS SOUTHWARD AND STALLS OUT.
ANOTHER, STRONGER ROUND OF RAIN RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AND SPREAD
FURTHER SOUTH TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS ROUND WILL MOST
LIKELY HAVE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT,
WHICH MAY GENERATE VERY MINOR URBAN FLOODING. THIS SECOND ROUND WILL
SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH WITH ONLY A SLIGHT FOCUS ON THE NORTH COAST.
LOW ELEVATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS ROUND WILL MOST LIKELY BE BETWEEN
0.5 AND 1.5 INCHES WITH UPPER ELEVATION AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF RAIN. IN THIS RAIN, EVEN THE SOUTHERN MOST PART OF THE AREA IS
NEARLY GUARANTEED TO SEE WETTING RAIN.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE WEEK. PEAK WIND
GUSTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL MOST LIKELY BE 20 TO 35 MPH WITH
ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF IMPACTFUL GUSTS OVER 45 MPH ON HIGH COASTAL
RIDGES. WINDS GUSTS WILL MOST LIKELY BE STRONGEST WITH THE SECOND
ROUND OF RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ECMWF ENSEMBLE INDICATES
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST WINDS THU OR THU NIGHT, THOUGH THERE
CONTINUES TO BE LARGE SPREADS. ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH AND FAIRLY
HIGH SNOW LEVELS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT ALL PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
THERE REMAINS GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE (80% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS)
THAT A WETTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER.
LONG RANGE FORECASTS HAVE PLACED A HIGHER RISK FOR A MODERATE TO
STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER NEAR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS COULD TRANSLATE INTO HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH. ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS HIGH BUT HAS GRADUALLY
INCREASED IN CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. WITH PRECEDING
RAIN, SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BECOME POSSIBLE. LENDING SUPPORT
FOR WET AND STORMY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER IS CPC'S
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK WHICH HAS NW CA IN A HIGH RISK FOR HEAVY PRECIP,
A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A MODERATE RISK FOR
HIGH WINDS.
AVIATION
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN TONIGHT WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND RAIN ARRIVING BRINGING
CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR/IFR FOR THE NORTH COAST TOMORROW. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS PASSAGE TOMORROW MORNING AS
WELL INCREASING THE THREAT OF LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AND MOUNTAIN WAVE
FORMATION WITH WINDS ALOFT UP TO 40KTS AT 2500-3000FT. VALLEY FOG
INLAND TONIGHT IS NOT EXPECTED, YET STILL POSSIBLE WITH ABOUT A 40%
PROBABILITY OF CEILINGS UNDER 500FT FROM 10Z TO 14Z.
MARINE
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY AS AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. GUSTS FROM
20-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS, WITH THE
STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 15-25KTS IN
THE SOUTHERN WATERS. STRONG WINDS AND STEEP-SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL
PROMOTE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS PROMPTING FOR THE HOISTING OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS ZONE 470 FROM 11 P.M. THIS EVENING THROUGH 11
A.M. TOMORROW. WINDS DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY, BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHERLY BREEZES.
A MID- PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL AROUND 8 TO 10 FEET IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF
FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS MID- TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
MINOR RISES EXPECTED ON NORTH COAST RIVERS EARLY TO
MID WEEK. ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW MONITOR
OR ACTION STAGE. MINOR FLOODING OF SMALLER RIVERS, CREEKS AND
STREAMS WITH POOR DRAINAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PST
MONDAY FOR PZZ470.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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