419
FXUS66 KEKA 170742
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1142 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR MOSTLY DEL NORTE, HUMBOLDT, TRINITY AND NORTHERN MENDOCINO
COUNTIES. LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARRIVE AGAIN
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MORE RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
A 5% CHANCE FOR MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING FOR DEL
NORTE, HUMBOLDT, TRINITY AND NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTIES.
- A 15% CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
- MORE RAIN WITH A 5% CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND.
- STRONGER WIND GUSTS FROM 45 TO 60 MPH EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL HEADLANDS AND MOUNTAINS OF DEL
NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBODLT.
- SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO 3500 TO 4500 FEET WEDNESDAY WITH VERY
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
- ANOTHER POWERFUL STORM POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS AN
IVT PLUME PASSES THROUGH THE REGION, PARTICULARLY OVER WINDWARD
FACING TERRAIN. SHARP RISES IN SOME RIVERS, CREEKS, AND STREAMS
ARE ALSO OBSERVED EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR WIND GUSTS FROM 45-50 MPH FOR THE DEL NORTE COAST
INCREASES THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS A 925MB SPEED MAX AROUND
45-55KT DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT THU. LACKING
INSTABILITY WILL PREVENT THESE STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING THE
SURFACE, BUT THE RIDGES OF DEL NORTE, CRESCENT CITY AREA, AND THE
KING RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO SEE 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED.
ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH WILL KEEP SNOW SNOW LEVELS QUITE HIGH IN
GENERAL THROUGH FRI. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3500-4500 FEET ON
WED BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL FALL OFF AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. SNOW LEVEL RAPIDLY INCREASE AGAIN THU NIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT IVT PLUME.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY WILL EVENTUALLY SAG SOUTH INTO SRN MENDO
AND SRN LAKE BY SAT MORNING AND PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN IN THE
NORTH. PRECIP MAY CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN ZONES. MODELS DIVERGE ON
DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW FRONTAL WAVE AND NORTHWARD SURGE OF IVT THIS
WEEKEND LATER IN THE WEEKEND. WE COULD BE IN STORE FOR MORE HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG WINDS THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AT
THE CHANCE OF IVT > 250 KG/M/S THE FOLLOWING WEEK DEC 22-26,
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN WET WEATHER CONTINUING FOR THE
LATTER PORTION OF DEC. IVT DIAGRAMS DO SHOW A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN
IVT BUT THIS MAY SHIFT BACK NORTHWARD. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO THE
AIRPORTS ACROSS THE AREA. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH TOWARDS MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AROUND 11 TO 14Z THIS MORNING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. CONFIDENCE
IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. TONIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE COAST VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH INTERIOR VALLEYS
WILL LIKELY SEE FOG. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE AT THE
COAST EARLY THURSDAY. MKK
MARINE
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST
TOWARDS MORNING. THESE WINDS NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO 5 TO 15 KT BY MIDDAY. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE NORTHWEST SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO AROUND 10 TO 13 FEET. FOR THE
NORTHERN WATERS HAVE EXPECTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RIGHT THROUGH
THE START OF THE GALE WATCH. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY REACH
10 FEET IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY AGAIN. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 KT
MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE ARE LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE GALE WATCH IN THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS REMAINS ON TRACK AND HAVE ADDED A GALE WATCH
TO THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 20 KT. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY,
BUT THERE IS WIDE VARIABILITY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THAT. THERE
IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES, BUT THERE ARE ALSO A LOT OF
SOLUTIONS WITH LOWER WINDS. MKK
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ450.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ470.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM PST
THURSDAY FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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