864
FXUS66 KEKA 050007
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
407 PM PST SUN JAN 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
RAIN SHOWERS AND COASTAL FLOODING CONTINUE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY OVER DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT
COUNTIES. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND WIND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE A BREAK ON TUESDAY. LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND STRENGTHENING WHILE
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY
FOCUSED ON DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP, WITH GUSTS
25-35 MPH EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL HEADLANDS AND EXPOSED RIDGES.
LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AS
THE FRONT NEARS THE COAST.
A SOMEWHAT MORE PROMINENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHILE THE
MOIST PLUME SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SPREADING THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CELL WITH BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE MENDOCINO COAST AND PERHAPS INTO THE
CAPE MENDOCINO LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HREF PROBABILITY
OF 6-HOURS PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 1 INCH INDICATE THERE IS A
20-40% CHANCE FROM THE KING RANGE AND LONG THE MENDOCINO COAST
FROM 4 AM TO 10AM MONDAY. IN ADDITION, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS NEAR SHORE LATE TONIGHT/ EARLY MORNING
AS WELL. GUSTY WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL HEADLAND AND EXPOSED RIDGES IN
MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 3,500 TO 4,000 FEET WITH
THIS SYSTEM, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. THIS COULD BRING
NOTABLE SNOW TO HIGHWAYS 3 AND 36. A FEW SNOWFLAKES ALONG THE
HIGHEST PASSES ON HIGHWAY 299 IN TRINITY COUNTY ARE POSSIBLE, BUT
LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. MEANWHILE, A WINTER STORM
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
5000 FEET WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
TUESDAY IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE DRY, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND. WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LOWER SNOW LEVELS, POSSIBLY
AROUND 3,000 TO 4,000 FEET. THE AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS
POINT, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THIS COULD AFFECT THE
PASSES ALONG HIGHWAY 299 (ALONG WITH HIGHWAYS 3 AND 36). RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE ALSO FAIRLY LIGHT, WITH LESS THAN A HALF INCH
CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA.
THURSDAY THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, BUT
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILDING IN. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NIGHT
AND MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE INTERIOR. NBM IS SHOWING SOME HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES STARTING FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, EVEN COASTAL AREAS, BUT MOIST
CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINS ARE LIKELY TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES
UPWARD. ZVS/MKK
AVIATION...18Z TAFS
A PASSING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS BRINGING
LIGHT SHOWERS AND RAINFALL OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR. AREAS OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING AND WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR AT LEAST TEMPO IFR VIS AND CIGS. THE AXIS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN FROM NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND SOUTHWARD
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CLIPS THE REGION.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE
THREAT FOR TURBULENCE AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE MUCH LOWER
THAN SATURDAY, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT RISK SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
PORTIONS OF DEL NORTE COUNTY WHERE 35 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REACH DOWN TO 1500 FT AGL. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON MONDAY AS
THE LOW DEPARTS SOUTHWARD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEAR THE SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
TERMINAL COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. JJW
MARINE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD
IN AND NORTHERLY WINDS START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BRIEFLY AND VEER TO THE
SW AS A LITTLE SYSTEM MOVES BY THE AREA. AFTER THAT, NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK,
PEAKING AT AROUND 16 FEET FRIDAY MORNING.
COASTAL FLOODING
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
MONDAY FOR HUMBOLD BAY. HIGH TIDES ARE FORECAST TO BE AT 8.04
FEET AT THE NORTH SPIT TIDE GAUGE AT AROUND 12:28 PM LOCAL TIME.
HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH SURGE AND TIDAL ANOMALY WILL RESULT IN
WATER LEVELS BETWEEN 9.3 TO 9.5 FEET MLLW (MEAN LOWER LOW WATER).
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY, INCLUDING KING SALMON
AND JACKSON RANCH ROAD IN THE ARCATA BOTTOMS, WILL BE LIKELY
BETWEEN 10 AM AND 2 PM. /ZVS
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CAZ101-102.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CAZ101-104-109.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR CAZ103>106-108>115.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CAZ103.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR CAZ107.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ450-455-470-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
VISIT US AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTPS://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTPS://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE THE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/EKA/ZONEMAP.PNG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page