902
FXUS66 KEKA 052156
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
156 PM PST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
RAIN WITH BOTH SMALL STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING.
CONCERNS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
REGION. LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD,
BRINGING SHOWERS AND RAINFALL TO THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS ARE RISING
MONDAY AFTERNOON DECREASING THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
HIGHWAY PASS SNOWFALL.
THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING
US A MUCH NEEDED BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING,
GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWN SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. AN ADDITIONAL
PULSE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY TO OUR NORTH, WHICH WILL BRING LARGELY LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE RAIN TO HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE. SNOW LEVELS START AROUND
4,000 FT AND LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 3,000 FT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WHILE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT, SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHEST PASSES OF HIGHWAYS 3, 36, AND
299. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BE BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER
CHANNELED TERRAIN AND EXPOSED RIDGES ARE LIKELY.
SHOWERS BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS IN. AMPLE MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS MAY LEAD TO FOG
AND STRATUS FOR MANY OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS, BUT A COOL AND DRY
AIRMASS BUILDING IN IS LIKELY TO BRING CHILLY TEMPERATURES. NBM IS
CONTINUING TO SHOW HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA, EVEN COASTAL AREAS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS
MOIST CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINS ARE LIKELY TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES
UPWARD. JB/JJW
AVIATION
VIS AND CIG REDUCTIONS FROM SHOWERS AND SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL, NOW MAINLY FOCUSED SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN MENDOCINO AND
LAKE COUNTIES WILL END THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. ABUNDANT INLAND
VALLEY FOG WILL THEN DEVELOP, AND THIS WILL BRING A THREAT FOR
LIFR CONDITIONS AT UKI. AS LIGHT SHOWERS END FARTHER NORTH, ANY
PERIOD OF CLEARING SKY COVER WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR VIS
REDUCTIONS FROM RADIATIONAL FOG OR STRATUS. OTHERWISE, VFR TO MVFR
CRITERIA WILL MAINLY HOLD FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS WHILE WINDS
TURN LIGHT TO VARIABLE OR CALM. JJW
MARINE
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITED THE WATERS SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED BEHIND THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AROUND
20KTS WILL QUICKLY EASE GOING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY
WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY BEFORE EASING AGAIN
THURSDAY. A LARGE, LONG PERIOD WEST NORTHWEST SWELL WITH A
PERIOD OVER 20 SECONDS WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS
OVER 18FT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FROM THIS SWELL. JJW
&
HYDROLOGY
THE ONGOING RAINFALL IN AREA WILL KEEP RIVERS AND
STREAMS ELEVATED. FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS REMAINS A THREAT THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
FOCUSED LARGELY ON MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES COULD SUPPORT MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THOSE AREAS. THE RUSSIAN RIVER AT HOPLAND
REACHED FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE THE NAVARRO RIVER AT
NAVARRO PEAKS INTO FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
IMPACTS TO HIGHWAYS 175 AND 128 SHOULD THESE RIVERS RISES AS
MODELED. THE GARCIA RIVER NEAR POINT ARENA ALSO COULD RISE HIGH
ENOUGH TO IMPACT HIGHWAY 1, AND CREEKS AND STREAMS IN LAKE COUNTY,
INCLUDING PUTAH CREEK AND SCOTTS CREEK, ARE FORECAST TO HAVE
SHARP RISES AND APPROACH OR EXCEED MONITOR STAGE.
ELSEWHERE, THE EEL RIVER AT FERNBRIDGE AND THE MAD RIVER AT ARCATA
ARE WITHIN MONITOR STAGE AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN MONITOR
STAGE. IT IS UNLIKELY FOR THESE RIVERS TO REACH FLOOD STAGE. BOTH
RIVERS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO PEAK TONIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO RECEDE.
JB/JJW
BEACH HAZARDS
A LARGE, LONG PERIOD WEST NORTHWEST SWELL WITH A
PERIOD OVER 20 SECONDS WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING A HIGH RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES STARTING WEDNESDAY.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE REACHED WITH
SURF BREAKERS EXCEEDING 20 FT THROUGH THURSDAY. JJW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ101-102.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CAZ102-108.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CAZ103.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ103>106-
108>115.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CAZ107.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ415.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR PZZ470-
475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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