129
FXUS66 KEKA 060847
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1247 AM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
RAIN CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. BOTH SMALL STREAM AND
RIVER FLOODING CONTINUE EARLY TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE REGION. LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN LATE THIS
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A DEEP, UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING A MUCH NEEDED
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING, GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWN
SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. AN ADDITIONAL PULSE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY TO OUR NORTH, WHICH
WILL BRING LARGELY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN TO HUMBOLDT AND
DEL NORTE. SNOW LEVELS START AROUND 4,000 FT AND LOWER DOWN TO
AROUND 3,000 FT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE LIGHT, SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
HIGHEST PASSES OF HIGHWAYS 3, 36, AND 299. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BE
BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER CHANNELED TERRAIN AND EXPOSED
RIDGES ARE LIKELY.
SHOWERS BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS IN. AMPLE MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS MAY LEAD TO FOG
AND STRATUS FOR MANY OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS, BUT A COOL AND DRY
AIRMASS BUILDING IN IS LIKELY TO BRING CHILLY TEMPERATURES. NBM IS
CONTINUING TO SHOW HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA, EVEN COASTAL AREAS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS
MOIST CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINS ARE LIKELY TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES
UPWARD. JB/JJW
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE IS STARTING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS IS
BRINGING OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COASTS. A FEW
PATCHES OF FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING, BUT GENERALLY THE
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP SKIES CLEAR. INLAND AREAS OF MENDOCINO AND
LAKE COUNTIES ARE CONTINUING TO SEE SHOWERS IN THE AREA, BUT THESE
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AND SKIES MAY CLEAR. IF/WHEN
THIS OCCURS THIS WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS. SO HAVE
ADDED FOG TO THE KUKI TAF, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. LATER THIS
EVENING A WEAK SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH
BRINGING SOME MORE RAIN TO THE AREA. MKK
MARINE
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AND THE LOW PRESSURE IS
DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS IS BRINGING MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE WATERS. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
TUESDAY AND A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SOME 10 TO 15 KT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTHERN WATERS
WHILE FARTHER SOUTH THE WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY. THE 11 SECOND
SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO
PEAK AROUND 15 TO 25 WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT A LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FORERUNNERS OF THIS
WAVE START TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY THESE WAVES MAY BE
AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET AT 23 SECONDS. THESE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY
AND OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 17 TO 19 FEET AT 18 SECONDS BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS IS ABOUT 2 FEET OVER THE WAVE WATCH 3 MODEL AND MORE
IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF WAVE MODEL. ISSUED A HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SWELL OVER 17 FEET.
THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FRIDAY, BUT THE SWELL
MAY REMAIN ABOVE 10 FEET UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. MKK
HYDROLOGY
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
RUSSIAN RIVER AT HOPLAND HAS PEAKED AT 18.55 FT AT 9:45PM MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RECEDE INTO MID TUESDAY
MORNING. THE NAVARRO RIVER AT NAVARRO IS AT ITS PEAK FLOOD STAGE
AROUND 11:15PM MONDAY NIGHT AT 23.13 FT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
IMPACTS TO HIGHWAYS 175 AND 128. THE GARCIA RIVER NEAR POINT
ARENA ALSO COULD RISE HIGH ENOUGH TO IMPACT HIGHWAY 1, AND CREEKS
AND STREAMS IN LAKE COUNTY, INCLUDING PUTAH CREEK AND SCOTTS
CREEK, ARE FORECAST TO HAVE SHARP RISES AND APPROACH OR EXCEED
MONITOR STAGE. SCOTTS CREEK PEAKED AT 12.82 FT AT 9:15PM MONDAY
NIGHT, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. JB/JJW
BEACH HAZARDS
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT A LARGE LONG PERIOD
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE FORERUNNERS OF THIS WAVE START TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY
THESE WAVES MAY BE AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET AT 23 SECONDS BUILDING TO 5 TO
8 FEET BY MIDDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE A BIT OF SET BEHAVIOR
WITH THESE LONG PERIODS CREATING A SNEAKER WAVE THREAT. THERE WILL
BE SOME BACKGROUND SWELL AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING, BUT
THE SETS MAY STILL BE DISTINCT ENOUGH TO CATCH SOME PEOPLE OFF
GUARD. THESE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND OVERNIGHT TO
AROUND 17 TO 19 FEET AT 18 SECONDS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING BREAKERS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES OF AROUND 22
TO 25 FEET. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. MKK
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CAZ101-103-104.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CAZ109.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR PZZ450-470.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR PZZ455-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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