296
FXUS66 KEKA 062217
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
217 PM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW RETURN TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN LATE THIS
WEEK BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. SNEAKER
WAVES ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY TRANSITIONING INTO
LARGE SURF ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FINALLY COME TO AN END
ALLOWING STREAMS AND RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION TO RECEDE.
HOWEVER, BEFORE WE CAN COMPLETELY DRY OUT, ANOTHER COUPLE FRONTS
WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO PRIMARILY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. TOTAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE TWO WAVES OF PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS OF HUMBOLDT,
DEL NORTE, AND WESTERN TRINITY COUNTIES WITH POTENTIALLY OVER AN
INCH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL BEHIND EACH
FRONT, POTENTIALLY TO AS LOW AS 2500 FEET IN DEL NORTE COUNTY
BEFORE THE SNOW COMES TO AN END. TOTAL SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL EASILY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT WITH VERY LITTLE
EXPECTED DOWN TO ANY HIGHWAY PASSES, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
NOT BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN CONCERN IS HIGHWAY 199
WHERE LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH THE HIGHWAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A FEW
HOURS WITH UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE. IF TRENDS POINT
TO HEAVIER SNOW AT THE TUNNEL THEN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO RAMP UP BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
WITH MANY OF THE RIDGETOPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS, PARTICULARLY IN
LAKE AND EASTERN TRINITY COUNTIES. LOCAL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND WEDNESDAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S
ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE FROST/FREEZE SEASONS
HAVE CONCLUDED FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE TURN TO THE NEW YEAR SO NO
FROST HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED. HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
MAY APPROACH 30F IN PORTIONS OF LAKE AND SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTIES
THURSDAY AND PARTICULARLY FRIDAY MORNINGS. THE NEED FOR COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL HAVE TO BE CONTEMPLATED FOR THOSE TWO MORNINGS. A
WARMING TREND WILL LIKELY BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND. /RPA
AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND ELEVATED BKN-OVC CEILINGS. AN APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM TONIGHT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
COASTAL TERMINALS. A BREAK IN THE RAIN IS FORECASTED FROM ABOUT 16Z
UNTIL ABOUT 22Z TOMORROW WHEN MORE RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN MVFR/VFR WITH ONLY A 20%
PROBABILITY OF IFR FOR THE NORTH COAST. INLAND, LIGHT WINDS REMAIN
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THAT SOME FOG/LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE, YET A PROB30 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KUKI
AS FAR DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
MARINE
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY SETTLING OVER THE AREA
AS THE LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO 10 TO 15
KT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WHILE FARTHER SOUTH,
THE WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 15 TO 25 WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
THE 11 SECOND SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS IS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
LARGE, LONG PERIOD SWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INITIALLY THESE WAVES MAY BE AROUND 3 TO 4
FEET AT 23 SECONDS. THESE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT
TO AROUND 17 TO 19 FEET AT 18 SECONDS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS
ABOUT 2 FEET OVER THE WAVE WATCH 3 MODEL AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE
ECMWF WAVE MODEL. ISSUED A HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SWELL OVER 17 FEET.
THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FRIDAY, BUT THE SWELL
MAY REMAIN ABOVE 10 FEET UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. CALMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY THIS COMING WEEKEND.
BEACH HAZARDS
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT A LARGE, LONG
PERIOD SWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE FORERUNNERS OF THIS WAVE WILL START TO BUILD IN
WEDNESDAY AROUND MIDDAY. INITIALLY, THESE WAVES MAY BE AROUND 3 TO 4
FEET AT 23 SECONDS BEFORE BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET BY MIDDAY. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SET BEHAVIOR WITH THESE LONG PERIODS CREATING AN
INCREASED SNEAKER WAVE THREAT. THERE WILL BE SOME BACKGROUND NW
SWELL AND INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS, BUT THE SETS MAY STILL BE
DISTINCT ENOUGH TO CATCH SOME PEOPLE OFF GUARD. AFTER THE FRONT
RUNNERS OF THIS WAVE GROUP ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS, THE SWELL WILL
KEEP BUILDING OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 17 TO 19 FEET AT 18 SECONDS BY
THURSDAY MORNING. LARGE BREAKERS OF 22 TO 25 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR
WEST AND NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FROM 7 PM PST WEDNESDAY UNTIL 4 PM PST ON THURSDAY DUE TO
THESE DANGEROUS SHORELINE CONDITIONS.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CAZ101-103-104.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY
FOR CAZ101-103-104-109.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CAZ109.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM PST
THURSDAY FOR PZZ450-470.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM PST
THURSDAY FOR PZZ455-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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