262
FXUS66 KEKA 112004
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1204 PM PST SUN JAN 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA BRINGING
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME OF THE
MORE PROTECTED NORTHERN VALLEYS WILL SEE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG MORE LIMITED WARMING.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAIRLY FLAT OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS THE INLAND
VALLEYS THAT SAW FOG THIS MORNING ARE WARMING MORE SLOWLY. THE
RIDGES ARE STARTING TO SEE TEMPERATURES WARM WITH SOME AREAS
RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES. IN THE VALLEYS THE INVERSION
MAY GET SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER, BUT THE VALLEYS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
HAVE RH REACH 90 TO 100 PERCENT EACH NIGHT. THIS MAY ALSO CREATE
POOR AIR QUALITY WITH ANY LOCALLY GENERATED POLLUTANTS GETTING
TRAPPED. THE VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY THE ONES SEEING FOG, WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WARM UP. SO FAR THESE HAVE BEEN ONLY REACHING AROUND
50 DEGREES. OVER THE WEEK THEY WILL LIKELY GET SLIGHTLY WARMER,
BUT THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WARMER THEY WILL GET.
HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST WELL BELOW THE NBM IN THESE
VALLEYS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL LIKELY SEE LOW RH BOTH OVERNIGHT AND IN
THE AFTERNOONS. FOR EXAMPLE BACKBONE RAWS IN TRINITY COUNTY AT
4600 FEET IS SHOWING A 10 PERCENT RH THIS MORNING. THE DRY AIR AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK. THESE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES,
LIKELY IN THE 60S OR EVEN NEAR 70 BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS NOT UNTIL THE 21ST OR 22ND OF JANUARY.
THIS IS A LONG WAYS OUT, BUT THE NBM HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THIS SINCE YESTERDAY. MKK
AVIATION
THE PERIOD OF CONSISTENT VFR IS POTENTIALLY COMING TO AN
END. WHILE DAYLIGHT HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH OFFSHORE
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE NORTH COAST, SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
SHOWING A RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER WITH ITS ACCOMPANYING
STRATUS/FOG. CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LESS THAN 50% (FOR THE HREF AND
TAF LAMP) SO THE FORECAST IS REMAINING ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR
FLYING, YET THE TREND HAS BEEN SLOWLY HINTING ON FOG SETTLING IN THE
KCEC AREA FIRST AROUND 05-07Z BEFORE EXPANDING SOUTHWARD TO KACV BY
08Z-10Z. THE NAMNEST AND ARW SHOW THE ARRIVAL OF STRATUS AT 06Z SO A
TEMPO HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AN HOUR BEFORE AND AFTER THIS TIME. INLAND
AREAS ARE ALSO SHOWING FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AROUND 12Z ONWARD
AS COLD AIR DRAINS INTO THE VALLEYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE INLAND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
IF THE FOG DOES NOT FORM OVER THE COAST, EXPECTED ANOTHER NIGHT OF
CALM WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL ARRIVES TO THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST SHOW THIS
SWELL ARRIVING MIDDAY, BEFORE PEAKING AT AROUND 12 FT AT 16 SECONDS
BY MONDAY MORNING. THE SWELL WILL NOT BE VERY STEEP, YET SWELL
HEIGHTS OVER 10 FEET WILL POSE A DANGER TO MARINERS OPERATING
SMALLER VESSELS LEADING TO AN ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ALL
WATERS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLIES RETURN ON MONDAY AND INCREASE BY TUE.
THE FORECAST PROBABILITY OF GUSTS OVER 25 KTS IS BECOME INCREASINGLY
LIKELY (OVER 70% CHANCE) TUE INTO WED, YET THERE IS A LESSER
PROBABILITY (~30%) FOR GALE GUSTS > 34 KT, MOSTLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS AND AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO. ELEVATED STEEP NORTHERLY WAVES IN
COMBINATION WITH A DECAYING WESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE ON THU AND
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
BEACH HAZARDS
TODAY, ANOTHER LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL
ORIGINATING FROM A LOW NEAR THE ALEUTIANS FINALLY FILLS IN THIS
AFTERNOON AT AROUND 7 FT AT 20 SECONDS BEFORE PEAKS AROUND 12 FT AT
16 SECONDS. CALM WINDS, AND SUNNY SKIES ALONG THE COAST COULD LEAD
TO A FALSE SENSE OF SAFETY WHILE AT THE BEACH FOR THIS PERIOD. A
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS MODERATE INCREASE IN
THE SNEAKER WAVE THREAT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STAY MUCH FARTHER BACK FROM THE OCEAN AND AVOID STEEP BEACHES AND
JETTIES. REMEMBER, NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN! DS
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CAZ101-
103-104-109.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PST
MONDAY FOR PZZ450-455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PST
TUESDAY FOR PZZ470-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
VISIT US AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTPS://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTPS://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE THE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/EKA/ZONEMAP.PNG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page