492
FXUS66 KEKA 252013
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1213 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND INTO EARLY WORK WEEK WITH SOME PARTICULARLY COLD MORNINGS WITH
LOWS NEAR FREEZING AND FREEZING. CONDITIONS WILL SLIGHTLY WARM AND
MOISTEN NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN BY MID
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT EASTWARD, PROMOTING VERY DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE SPREADING ACROSS NW
CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND FLATTEN
INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA,
BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS. RIDGES TOPS COULD EXPECTED SOME
GUSTIER WINDS EARLY THIS WEEK AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS.
THE 500 MB RIDGE APPEARS TO SLOWLY BUILD BACK EARLY THIS COMING WORK
WEEK , WITH CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY WARMING UP. THE PATTERN SHIFTS AS
THE RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN GIVING WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWARD. THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY MID WEEK.
AT THIS MOMENT, THERE IS A 50-80 PERCENT CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN
(0.1 INCH OR MORE) TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES REMAINING ALONG THE COASTAL RANGE
IN DEL NORTE, HUMBOLDT AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES. LESSER RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED INLAND IN TRINITY AND LAKE COUNTIES. THERE ARE NO
MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM, AND IF
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR, IT WOULD BE MORE BENEFICIAL THAN
IMPACTFUL, ESPECIALLY AFTER THE RECENT DRY SPELL.
ENSEMBLES CW3E MODELS, AND WPC CLUSTER ANALYSIS SUGGESTS (25-35%)
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE EPS AND GEFS SHOW THE NEXT WEEKEND RAIN TOTALS LOOK
TO BE BELOW 0.1" FOR EACH 24 HOURS PERIOD FRIDAY-SUNDAY. /ZVS/DES
AVIATION...18Z TAFS
DRY OFFSHORE FLOW FIRMLY MAINTAINS VFR
CONDITIONS. MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN FROM A
CLIPPING WEATHER SYSTEM. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE THREAT FOR TURBULENCE
AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AFTER 15Z MONDAY. THE MOISTENING SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME STRATUS TO PUSH INTO CEC AFTER 01Z MONDAY. CIG HEIGHTS LOOK TO
BE IN THE MVFR LEVELS AT THIS TIME IF THIS DOES OCCUR. JJW
MARINE
SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5 FT BY TODAY AS WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE SOME ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. A SERIES OF SMALL, MID TO LONG PERIOD WEST
SWELLS FILL IN THROUGH TUESDAY, EACH PEAKING AT AROUND 5 FT. WINDS
TURN SOUTHERLY AND START TO INCREASE EARLY MONDAY. NBM CURRENTLY
SHOWS ABOUT A 70% CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE OUTER WATERS BY
TUESDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. IF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND HIGHER, THE NORTHERN INNER ZONE
(450) MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR A GALE WATCH OR HAZARDOUS SEAS
WATCH. A MID PERIOD WSW SWELL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. JB/JJW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM PST TUESDAY
FOR PZZ470-475.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR PZZ470-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE THE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/EKA/ZONEMAP.PNG
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