128
FXUS66 KEKA 270951
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
151 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2026
SYNOPSIS
STRONG TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FOR MOSTLY COASTAL HEADLANDS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURNS THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
KEY MESSAGES
* GUSTY TO STRONG SOUTH WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL HEADLANDS AND EXPOSED
RIDGES IN DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT.
* LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING, WITH LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES
RAPIDLY THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT, WHILE MOISTURE HAS
SURGED ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTED BREEZY TO
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL HEADLANDS AND EXPOSED
RIDGES. RESULTING IN GREATER MIXING AND WARMING FOR MOSTLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY EARLY THIS
MORNING THROUGH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50
MPH ARE LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL HEADLANDS AND EXPOSED RIDGES IN
DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR GUSTS > 45
MPH OVER THE COASTAL HEADLANDS AND HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 10 AM PST
THIS MORNING. PEAK GUSTS MAY HOLD OFF TIL 10 AM-1 PM PST. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON.
A QUICK PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RAIN AMOUNTS
FORECAST GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH FROM LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH THE MOST OF THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN 10 AM PST THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING.
LESSER AMOUNTS FROM 0.1 TO 0.3 INCHES FOR LAKE COUNTY. HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER 1 INCH IS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST FACING
ASPECTS IN THE KING RANGE AND DEL NORTE COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND LOW FLOWS ON THE RIVERS, NO MAJOR
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
DOMINATE INTO THURSDAY. OVERALL DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP WITH A WARM FRONT THU-FRI.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES AND WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES MORE PRECIP POSSIBLE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADS TOWARD PAC NW.
PROBABILITIES FOR 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS INCREASES
TO 30-50% FOR THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES AND 15-35% FOR THE
SOUTHERN MOST AND EASTERN MOST VALLEYS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 4
PM SUNDAY. STILL A GREAT DEAL OF VARIABILITY WITH THE AMOUNTS AND
TIMING, BUT OVERALL NO SIGNS FOR MAJOR IMPACTS FROM RAIN OR SNOW
AT THIS TIME. /ZVS
AVIATION...(6Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE
TERMINALS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL
SUNRISE AS SOUTH WINDS KEEP CEILINGS HIGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT, WITH WINDS ALOFT ALREADY STARTING TO INCREASE. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL BE A THREAT AS WINDS ARE MUCH STRONGER ALOFT,
ESPECIALLY AROUND CEC AND ACV. SURFACE GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO START
MIXING DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE
AT ACV AND UP TO 40 KTS AT CEC. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER IN MENDOCINO
AND LAKE COUNTIES, BUT GUSTS COULD STILL EXCEED 20 KTS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH MVFR CEILINGS WILL FOLLOW
THESE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS AND RAINFALL WILL
EXIT THE AREA IN THE EVENING, WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
REMAINING OVERNIGHT. JB
MARINE
WINDS WILL SHARPLY INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM. GALES ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE WATERS,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. STEEP SEAS OF 10 TO 13 FT ARE
FORECAST WITH THESE WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS
OF UP TO 15 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. WINDS EASE
BELOW GALE FORCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL START TO
SUBSIDE. HOWEVER, A LARGE, LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING COMBINED SEAS OF 14-16
FT. WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN BREEZY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. JB/JJW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ101.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ102-105-
106.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ104.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ450-470-
475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 PM PST TUESDAY FOR
PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ470-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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