926
FXUS66 KEKA 272210
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
210 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2026
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY DRIER WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 50 MPH (64 MPH AT KNEELAND RAWS) THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER ELEVATIONS
AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND EEL DELTA HAVE GUSTED TO 35-40 MPH (KACV
AND KFOT) AS WELL. SO FAR WINDS HAVE NOT PICKED UP AT KCEC. GUSTS
FROM 45-50 MPH PER THE HREF MEAN ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON TODAY.
A WIND ADVISORY FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FOR COASTAL DEL NORTE AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES REMAINS IN EFFECT
TIL 4-6 PM. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
AFTER 4-6 PM AS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE AND PERHAPS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HREF CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A 1 HOUR WINDOW FROM 3-5 PM FOR RAIN RATES OVER 0.25IN/HR
OVER SW HUMBOLDT IN THE KING RANGE. THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD
FRONT, DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND LOW FLOWS ON THE RIVERS WILL
SEVERELY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ANY MAJOR HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS. AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH THROUGH 10 PM TUE FOR
DEL NORTE, HUMBOLDT AND NW MENDOCINO. LESSER AMOUNTS FROM 0.1 TO
0.3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR LAKE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN MENDO. WE POSTED
ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR SELECT CITIES ON OUR WEB PAGE AND
SOCIAL MEDIA OUTLETS.
DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 20'S ACROSS NORTHERN
TRINITY THIS AFTERNOON. EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD RESULT IN LOWER
SNOW LEVELS AND SLUSHY WET SNOW DOWN TO 2500-3500 FEET AROUND
TRINITY CENTER THIS EVENING. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. 2 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST IN 6 HOURS FOR SCOTT MOUNTAIN PASS ON
ROUTE 3 THIS EVENING. THIS IS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. MOTORIST TRAVELING OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
PASSES ABOVE 4500 FEET THIS EVENING SHOULD BE READY FOR SLIPPERY
ROADS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND DOMINATE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES WITH A SERIES OF WARM FRONTS WILL BE POSSIBLE (20-50%
CHANCE) PRIMARILY FOR DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT, PARTICULARLY
IN REGIONS OF SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. OVERALL IT DOES LOOK TOO
WET OR IMPACTFUL WITH AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF FEW ONE HUNDREDTHS
TO PERHAPS (15% CHANCE) FOR A TENTH IN 6 HOURS ACROSS DEL NORTE.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES AND WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HEADS TOWARD PAC NW. THERE IS STILL A SOME VARIABILITY WITH THE
AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND TIMING, HOWEVER SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE DAY WHEN
MOST OF THE RAIN ARRIVES. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL IN
ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW 925MB WINDS DO NOT LOOK
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT BEEFING UP THE WINDS ABOVE THE NBM.
MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A 40-60% CHANCE FOR
0.25-0.50 INCHES IN 24 HOURS ENDING 4 AM MON, MOSTLY FOR THE
NORTHERN MOST ZONES. CHANCE FOR MAJOR IMPACTS FROM RAIN OR SNOW
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK, MON-TUE, AS A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS RETURN.
AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED
DURING THE DAY, THOUGH NOTABLY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL
OVERCAST SKIES HAVE BOTH BUILT IN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS UP TO NEAR 40 KTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
NEAR SUNSET AS A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THIS
WILL GENERATE GUSTY SURFACE CONDITIONS AND MODEST LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO IMPACT THE COAST AROUND 2 PM LOCAL TIME. SOME BRIEFLY HEAVIER
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 7 PM. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL
MOST LIKELY PREVAIL WITH BRIEF PERIOD DOWN TO IFR. BEHIND THE
FRONT, LINGERING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS LATE OVERNIGHT THOUGH THE THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS. SIMILARLY FOR THE INTERIOR, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY THOUGH SOME MODELS INDICATE A CHANCE
(20%) OF LOW VALLEY FOG AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. /JHW
MARINE
GALE CONDITIONS HAVE BUILT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS DURING
THE DAY TODAY WITH SOME GALE CONDITIONS PUSHING CLOSE TO SHORE INT
HE INNER WATERS. SOME BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS HAVE SO FAR BEEN
RECORDED. GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THE AREA. STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD
ALONG THE WIND, UP TO AROUND 10 KTS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF BEHIND THE FROND WITH FEW GUSTS
EVEN OVER 15 KTS BY MIDNIGHT. SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL ALSO FALL, WITH
COMBINED SEAS LIKELY BRIEFLY BELOW 6 FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING. ASIDE
FROM SOME MODERATE GUSTS UP TO 24 KTS IN THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS
WEDNESDAY, WIND WILL BE MOSTLY GENTLE WITH ONLY MODERATE SHORT PERIOD
SEAS. THAT SAID, A STEEP LONG PERIOD SWELL UP TO 14 FEET WILL BUILD
IN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PERSIST INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MORE MODERATE
CONDITIONS WILL THEM MOST LIKELY BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND. /JHW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ101-102-
105-106.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ104.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ450-470-
475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ455.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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