611
FXUS66 KEKA 282220
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
220 PM PST WED JAN 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS DEL NORTE AND FAR NORTHERN HUMBOLDT THROUGH THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER, VARIABLE CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. CHANCE FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
BROAD FLAT RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A LONG FETCH OF SOUTHWESTERLY
MOISTURE WITH ABOVE NORMAL PWATS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. MINOR SHORT WAVELENGTH DISTURBANCES IN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT (10-20% CHANCE FOR A
FEW HUNDREDTHS) IN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MOSTLY ACROSS
DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT TONIGHT-FRI, PARTICULARLY OVER
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW IS FORECAST TO OCCUR FRI-
SAT AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS OFFSHORE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
PRECIP CHANCE ALONG THE ORCA BORDER IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH.
OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER WITH GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURE ARE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS CUTTING OVER THE FLAT RIDGE WILL HAMPER THE
LONGWAVE COOLING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE AS
COLD. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COUNTER TO THE LONGWAVE COOLING WILL BE
ABUNDANT LOW CLOUD COVER AND FOG IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. MODELS
AS WELL AS BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY
TONIGHT AND LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AFTER MOIST AIR
PUSH LAST NIGHT. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FORM AGAIN IN THE
VALLEYS THU NIGHT/FRI AM, ESPECIALLY IN TRINITY, HUMBOLDT AND
NORTHERN MENDO.
DAYS 3-7: GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING NW CALIFORNIA COAST THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE
FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF TIL SUNDAY WHEN MOST OF THE
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. A FASTER SCENARIO SUGGESTS RAIN ARRIVING
EARLIER, SAT NIGHT. WITH A DOMINANT BLOCKING PATTERN, THIS DOES
NOT APPEAR AS LIKELY AS A SLOWER PROGRESSION. MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE
(NBM QMD) CONTINUES TO INDICATE A 40-60% CHANCE FOR 0.25 INCHES OR
MORE IN 24 HOURS ENDING 4 PM SUNDAY OR 4 AM MONDAY FOR MAINLY THE
NORTHERN MOST ZONES. THERE IS A 13-23% CHANCE FOR 1" IN 24 HOURS
OVER DEL NORTE MOUNTAINS AND SW HUMBOLDT (KING RANGE) FOR THE
SAME 24 HOUR TIME PERIODS. GENERALLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE
FORECAST FOR EASTERN VALLEYS OF TRINITY AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
LAKE AND SOUTHERN MENDO WHERE CHANCES FOR 0.10 INCHES IN 24 HOURS
IS AROUND 20-45% ENDING 4 AM MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS APPEAR QUITE HIGH
WHEN MOST OF THE PRECIP ARRIVES, GENERALLY ABOVE 6KT ON SUNDAY,
LOWERING TO 5KFT IN THE COOLER AIR AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BY MONDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY ALSO BECOME GUSTY FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT SAT NIGHT OR SUN MORNING.
DETERMINISTIC GFS 925MB WINDS DO INCREASE TO 40-45 KT OFFSHORE SAT
EVENING. ECMWF ENSEMBLE METEOGRAMS AND EFI ARE NOT SUGGESTING A
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THIS TIME. NBM 24 HOUR PROBABILITIES
DOES INDICATE 10-30% CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR MORE OVER THE
RIDGES OF DEL NORTE AND SW HUMBOLDT SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING.
STAY TUNED FOR FINE TUNING OF THE FORECAST. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY BEFORE A RIDGE ALOFT AMPLIFIES AND
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WE STAY DRY
FOR A DAY OR TWO AND PERHAPS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...18Z TAFS
WITH DAYTIME CLEARING OF INLAND VALLEY
STRATUS, VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPED. HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING IN THROUGH TODAY WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH.
THE RECENT RAINFALL WILL ENCOURAGE IN INLAND VALLEY FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH IMPACTS LIKELY THROUGH
UKI. THE OCEANIC SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRIVE A BAND OF STRATUS
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. CURRENT IMPACTS TO THE COAST
LOOK LIMITED AT THIS TIME. A CLOSER BRUSH IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MENDOCINO COAST. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE, BUT HREF VISIBILITIES DO
NOT DEPICT VIS VALUES UNDER 3SM FOR THE MENDOCINO COAST AT THIS
TIME. STRATUS MAY PUSH CLOSER TO THE DEL NORTE COAST AT TIMES
THURSDAY, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON CEC TERMINAL IMPACTS. RADIATIONAL
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS ALWAYS A CONCERN AFTER RAINFALL. THE MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OVER THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. JJW
MARINE
MID TO LONG PERIOD W TO WSW SWELLS ADD TO THE COMBINED
SEA HEIGHT OF 8 TO 10 FT WEDNESDAY. SHORT PERIOD SOUTHERLY SEAS OF 6-
8 FT REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15
TO 18 KTS REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS OUT TO 10 NM AND OVER MOST OF
THE SOUTHER OUTER WATERS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH.
STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. NBM IS
SHOWING AROUND A 53% CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO.
SEAS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A LARGE, LONG PERIOD
WESTERLY SWELL BUILDS IN. THE SWELL WILL PEAK THURSDAY AT 12-14 FT
AT 15 TO 16 SECONDS THURSDAY, THEN WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
INTO FRIDAY. COMBINED SEAS MAY BRIEFLY FALL BELOW 10 FT FRIDAY, BUT
AN ADDITIONAL MID PERIOD SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED.
COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 10 FT LATER SATURDAY
FROM AN ADDITIONAL LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL. A LARGER, LONG PERIOD
WEST SWELL BUILDS IN SUNDAY WHEN SEAS WILL REACH 12-14 FT.
SEAS AND WINDS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE MUCH LOWER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
NBM DOES SHOW A 54% CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED AREA OF GALE STRENGTH
GUSTS FROM NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND AND SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. JJW
COASTAL FLOODING
CHANCE FOR MINOR HIGH TIDE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE WEEK, PRIMARILY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHEST CHANCE (40%)
FOR SALT WATER INUNDATION OF NORMALLY DRY AREAS WILL BE ON SATURDAY,
JAN 31ST. IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS SEVERE AS THE KING TIDE
FLOODING OBSERVED IN EARLY JANUARY. MORE NUISANCE ROAD FLOODING
IS LIKELY IN AREAS LIKE KING SALMON. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
LARGE SURF WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR COASTAL FLOODING.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PST
FRIDAY FOR PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ470-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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