372
FXUS66 KEKA 292255
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
255 PM PST THU JAN 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. RIDGE ALOFT AMPLIFIES AND NORTHERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK, WITH DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN PROMOTES DRY AND MILD WEATHER
CONDITIONS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S TODAY, EVEN ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER, A LOW-
LEVEL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN KEEPING PERSISTENT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE TRINITY VALLEYS, KEEPING THE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, ESPECIALLY AT WEAVERVILLE AND HAYFORK.
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE, PROMOTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE A
PERIOD OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IS OBSERVED FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF CAPE MENDOCINO. INCREASING HIGH- LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST- WESTERLY FLOW MOVES TOWARD OR/WA. OTHERWISE, DRY AND
MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVER NW CALIFORNIA AS THE MAIN
RIDGE GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOME MODERATE SOUTHERLY BREEZES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOPED OVER THE
INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ALONG
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FORM
AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IN TRINITY,
HUMBOLDT AND INTERIOR MENDOCINO. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER SIMILAR COMPARED
WITH TODAY, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND, AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, AND THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFT EASTWARD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT EMBEDDED TO THE TROUGH WILL APPROACHES THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA FROM WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. A FASTER SCENARIO SUGGESTS
RAIN ARRIVING EARLIER, SATURDAY NIGHT. MULTI- MODEL ENSEMBLE (NBM
QMD) CONTINUES TO INDICATE A 40-65% CHANCE FOR 0.25 INCHES OR MORE
IN 24 HOURS ENDING 4 PM OR 10 PM SUNDAY FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
ZONES, ESPECIALLY DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. THERE IS UP TO
15% CHANCE FOR 1" IN 24 HOURS OVER DEL NORTE MOUNTAINS AND SW HUMBOLDT
(KING RANGE) FOR THE SAME 24 HOUR TIME PERIODS. GENERALLY LIGHTER
AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE FORECAST FOR EASTERN VALLEYS OF TRINITY AND
NORTHERN MENDOCINO WHERE CHANCES FOR 0.10 INCHES IN 24 HOURS ARE
AROUND 20-45% ENDING 10 PM SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS APPEAR QUITE HIGH
WHEN MOST OF THE PRECIP ARRIVES, GENERALLY ABOVE 6KT ON SUNDAY,
LOWERING TO 5KFT IN THE COOLER AIR AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BY MONDAY
MORNING.
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY BEFORE A RIDGE ALOFT
AMPLIFIES AND NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS
AND WE STAY DRY FOR A DAY OR TWO AND PERHAPS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
/ZVS
AVIATION
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM AGAIN IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND MAY EVEN DEVELOP AT KUKI AGAIN, THOUGH MESOSCALE MODELS
AND DOWNSCALED BUFKIT PROFILES ARE DRIER. AFTER TWO CONSECUTIVE
NIGHTS, 18Z FORECAST HAS BEEN LARGELY BASED ON PERSISTENCE. VERY LOW
CHANCES (<20%) FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OR LIFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL AERODROMES (KACV AND KCEC).
OTHERWISE, VFR WITH VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOST LIKELY
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND
UNDER 10 TO 15 KTS. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES TONIGHT ACROSS
INTERIOR DEL NORTE COUNTY. CHANCE FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
SHALLOW TURBULENCE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF DEL NORTE
AND COULD HAVE AN IMPACT SMALL AIRCRAFT.
MARINE
WESTERLY SWELL PEAKED AROUND 13-14 FEET AT 14-15 SECONDS
TODAY AND WILL START TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AN
ADVISORY FOR SMALL CRAFT DUE TO HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES. SWELL AROUND 10 FEET MAY
LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 10 FT MID TO LATE
MORNING. OTHERWISE, A GENERALLY TRANQUIL WIND REGIME (5-15KT) IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
STEEP SOUTHERLY WAVES AROUND 5 TO 7 FEET ARE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS (PZZ470) BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS S-SE
WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT. STEEP WIND WAVES IN COMBINATION WITH
DECAYING WESTERLY SWELL NEAR 8 FEET WILL LIKELY YIELD SEAS AROUND 10
TO 11 ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THE ADVISORY FOR SMALL CRAFT
HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR PZZ470 FOR THIS REASON. THE WIND WAVE
GENERATIONS FROM NWPS MAY BE TOO HIGH. SEAS SHOULD LAY DOWN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY BEFORE A COUPLE OF LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL GROUPS (>15 SECONDS) PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF STEEP SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND THESE
WESTERLY SWELL GROUPS MAY YIELD SEAS AROUND 10-13 FT WITH MIX OF
PERIODS FROM 8 TO 16 SECONDS. THE LARGEST LONG PERIOD SWELL GROUP
(AROUND 12 FEET AT 16 SECONDS) ARRIVES SUNDAY AND ANOTHER ADVISORY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.
ELEVATED SEAS ABOVE 10 FEET DUE TO THIS WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN WILL
MOST LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS A GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY WIND REGIMES TAKES HOLD.
BEACH HAZARDS
TWO LONG PERIOD (>16 SECONDS) WESTERLY SWELL GROUPS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST ONE WILL ARRIVE
ON SATURDAY WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT AT 17 SECONDS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. A DECAYING SWELL AROUND 6 FEET AT 11 SECONDS WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT AND SHOULD MITIGATE THE SNEAKER WAVE RISK ON SAT. ANOTHER
LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAIN ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH HEIGHTS EVENTUALLY
BUILDING TO 12 FEET WITH PERIODS NEAR 16 SECONDS. BREAKERS UP TO 16
FEET FOR WEST AND NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST
BASED ON AVERAGE BEACH SLOPE PROFILES. BEACHGOERS VENTURING NEAR OR
IN THE SURF ZONES SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT. AVOID ROCKS, JETTIES AND
STEEP BEACHES.
COASTAL FLOODING
CHANCE FOR MINOR HIGH TIDE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHEST
CHANCE (40%) FOR SALT WATER INUNDATION OF NORMALLY DRY AREAS WILL BE
ON SATURDAY, JAN 31ST. IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS SEVERE AS
THE KING TIDE FLOODING OBSERVED IN EARLY JANUARY. MORE NUISANCE ROAD
FLOODING IS LIKELY IN AREAS LIKE KING SALMON. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND LARGE SURF WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR COASTAL FLOODING. STRONG
WINDS (>35KT) AND LARGE SURF (>20FT) ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
STORM SURGE MODEL INDICATES 8.5 FEET MLLW AT THE NORTH SPIT TIDAL
GAUGE ON FRIDAY WHICH IS BELOW CRITERIA OF 8.8 FEET MLLW. SATURDAY
APPEARS MORE PROBABLE, THOUGH STORM SURGE MODEL HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING
AROUND FROM 8.7 TO 8.9 FT MLLW FOR SATURDAY. PROBABILITY DECREASES
TO 30% ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER THAT WILL DEPEND ON SURF HEIGHTS AND THE
STRENGTH OF SOUTHERLIES OFFSHORE. SUNDAY COULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 8.8 FT MLLW AS WELL. STAY TUNED FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN
ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY. WE POSTED A GRAPHIC
ON OUR WEB PAGE TO BRING ATTENTION TO THIS.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ450-455-
475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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