246
FXUS66 KEKA 160852
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1252 AM PST MON FEB 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. MONDAY
EVENING THE COLD AIR MOVES IN WITH RAIN AND SNOW STARTING RIGHT
BEHIND IT. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STRONG WINTER STORM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY SNOW, ESPECIALLY IN HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE
COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1500 TO 2000
FEET, BUT LOCAL AREAS MAY BE LOWER. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND
LOW ELEVATION SNOW ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
* MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT HEAVY WET SNOW WILL GENERATE
DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS, DOWNED TREES AND POSSIBLE POWER
OUTAGES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOUNTAIN PASSES HIGHWAYS
199, 299, 36, AND 3. THIS MAY ALSO IMPACT HIGHWAY 101.
* SMALL HAIL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FOR LOW ELEVATIONS ALONG NW
CALIFORNIA COAST WITH HEAVY SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
* ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND LOW ELEVATION SNOW ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT
RAIN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY IS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AND ONLY A
FEW ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.
SNOW LEVELS IN THE MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 4,000 FEET.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE COLD WEATHER SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH
OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES (AND SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL RAPIDLY IN THE EVENING. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE PRECIP PICKING UP LATER IN THE EVENING AFTER THE COLD
AIR HAS MOVED IN. BY 10PM MONDAY WHEN THE PRECIP STARTS TO PICK UP
SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1500 TO 25000 FEET, LOWEST
IN THE NORTH. THESE SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS SHOW THESE SNOW LEVELS DROPPING
AROUND 1200 TO 2500 FEET TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BRING HEAVY SNOW, ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. 6 TO 18 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS ABOVE 2,000 TO
3,000 FEET. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
ESPECIALLY IN DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES.
THIS COLD AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING SOME INSTABILITY. SOME OF
THE STRONGER SHOWERS MAY HELP DRIVE SNOW LEVELS LOWER AND THESE
MAY REACH SEA LEVEL. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE EUREKA OR ARCATA COULD SEE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN
WITH THE RAIN. WHILE SNOW IS UNLIKELY AT THE COAST, SMALL HAIL
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY. THESE MAY COVER THE ROADS WITH SMALL HAIL AND
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 THIS WILL NOT BE QUICK TO MELT AND THE
ROADS WILL BE SLIPPERY.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE RAIN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHTER, ESPECIALLY IN TRINITY COUNTY, BUT THE AIR WILL BE COLDER.
EARLY WEDNESDAY SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1,000 TO
1,500 FEET. HOWEVER MOST AREAS ONLY EXPECTED TO SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW. THIS PRECIP WILL BE SHOWERY AND THERE COULD BE LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. AGAIN THIS COULD DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN AND SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT THE COAST, BUT NOT LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND
SNOW IS EXPECTED. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE AROUND 1500 TO 2500 FEET
ONCE AGAIN, HOWEVER THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK. THE ECMWF EFI IS AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 HIGHLIGHTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW. SO THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE A
SYSTEM THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED. FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY AS WELL THERE MAY BE A
BREAK IN THE HEAVIER RAIN AND SNOW. THEN THE MODELS ARE
HIGHLIGHTING ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. THE ENSEMBLES ARE
STARTING TO HIGHLIGHT INCREASED IVT AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN ON
SUNDAY. MKK
AVIATION...(06Z TAFS).
POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING
LIGHT RAIN AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WHICH IS LIKELY TO WANE INTO
THE MORNING, BRINGING LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND OBSCURATIONS IN THE
WAY OF MIST AT FLIGHT DECK LEVEL. STRATUS, MID LEVEL, AND HIGH
CLOUDS LOSE DENSITY MONDAY MORNING BUT ARE STILL LIKELY TO
MAINTAIN SCATTERED AND BROKEN AT THEIR RESPECTIVE ALTITUDES. THE
NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BRING NORTHERLY GUSTS TO KCEC AND
KACV BY THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON RESPECTIVELY. INSTABILITY
PERSISTS IN FRONT OF THE NEXT FRONT WITH WEAKER TROUGHING DUE TO
AN ELONGATED AND SHALLOW GRADIENT. WITH THE NEXT FRONT WE SEE AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AND TIGHTER GRADIENT. GEOSTROPHIC FLOW FROM THE
NW WILL SOURCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS MONDAY EVENING, VEERING
WESTERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING. /EYS
MARINE
THE PERSISTENT 8-10FT WAVE HEIGHTS FROM THE RESIDUAL
SWELL HAVE FINALLY TRENDED DOWN. WIND WAVES ARE MORE ACTIVE WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FETCH OVER AREA WATERS BECOMING THE DOMINANT FACTOR
IN WAVE GENERATION. WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM WE SEE
GEOSTROPHIC MERIDIONAL FLOW FROM THE NW, WHICH WILL BARE DOWN ON
THE AREA WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT
AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE OCCURRENCE OF 35-38KT GUSTS IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND
SO A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN HOISTED TO COVER THE HAZARD. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL COVER THE CONDITIONS UP UNTIL THAT POINT FOR
THE SOUTHERN INNER AND OUTER WATERS, MEANWHILE COVERING THE
NORTHERN WATERS FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE DURATION OF THE CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON. COMBINED SEAS JUST UNDER 10FT AS
THE WIND WAVE FILLS IN. AN ADDITIONAL SWELL IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY HAVE GONE WITH THE WAVE MODEL FOR
WAVE HEIGHTS, BUT THEY COULD COME IN HIGHER LIKE THE LAST SYSTEM.
MKK/EYS
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ101-103.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY
FOR CAZ102-105-106.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 PM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ104.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ107-
108.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 PM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ110-111-114-115.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 3 PM PST TUESDAY
FOR PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ455.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ475.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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