812
FXUS66 KEKA 162217
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
217 PM PST MON FEB 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
MAJOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS WITH LOW ELEVATION
SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARMER STORM WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES:
* TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT HEAVY WET SNOW WILL RESULT IN
DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS, DOWNED TREES AND POSSIBLE POWER
OUTAGES. HEAVY WET SNOW WILL IMPACT TRAVEL ON HIGHWAYS 199,
299, 36, 101 AND 3.
* SMALL HAIL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FOR LOW ELEVATIONS ALONG NW
CALIFORNIA COAST WITH HEAVY SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
* ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN WITH LOW ELEVATION SNOW ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
* HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGHER SNOW LEVELS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVED ACROSS THE NORTH COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLDER AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND A SECONDARY
TROUGH PASSAGE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE
FORECAST TO PLUMMET TO 2000 TO 2500 FEET LATER TONIGHT AND MAY DIP
DOWN TO 1500 FEET IN LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION. MESOSCALE AND
GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A 500MB COLD CORE DIGS
OFFSHORE THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. SHALLOW INSTABILITY AND
LOW CAPE (<500J/KG) MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED LOW TOPPED STORMS AND
SMALL HAIL. DEEPER DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FROM 2000-3000 FEET TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY WILL YIELD HEAVY SNOW FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000-2500
FEET. CONFIDENCE FOR OVER 4 INCHES IN 6 HOURS IS HIGHEST FOR HUMBOLDT,
DEL NORTE AND SOUTHERN TRINITY COUNTIES WHERE HREF CONTINUES TO
INDICATE OVER AN 80% CHANCE. CHANCE FOR OVER 4 INCHES ALSO INCREASES
FOR NORTHERN MENDOCINO AND NORTHERN LAKE, GENERALLY ABOVE 2500-3000
FEET. GREATER IMPACTS ARE LIKELY FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND
1500-2500 FEET, PARTICULARLY IN NORTHERN MENDOCINO ON HIGH 101
LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS WITH SNOW LEVELS. HEAVY PRECIP RATES
WILL DRIVE DOWN FREEZING LEVELS AND RESULT IN BURSTS OF HEAVY
SNOW AND/OR SMALL HAIL THAT WILL STICK TO THE ROADS. FOR THAT
REASON THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING
FOR NORTHERN MENDOCINO AND LAKE. CONFIDENCE IN WINTER STORM
WARNING AMOUNTS (5 INCHES OR MORE ABOVE 1500 FEET) IS NOT HIGH (A
30-50% CHANCE) FOR LOCATIONS LIKE COBB BY 10 AM TUESDAY.
GREATER IMPACTS ARE FORECAST FOR BERRY SUMMIT ON HIGHWAY 299 AND
COLLIER TUNNEL ON HIGHWAY 199 WHERE UP TO 1 FOOT OF SNOW MAY
ACCUMULATE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE WEAVERVILLE AREA (HWY 299 AT OREGON MOUNTAIN AND
BUCKHORN SUMMIT) WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN 24-36 HOURS.
A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET IN DEL
NORTE, HUMBOLDT AND TRINITY COUNTIES.
SHOWERS AND LOW SNOW LEVELS (2000 FEET) ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM
THE NW. MODELS ARE NOT IN SUPER GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING,
SNOW AMOUNTS/INTENSITY AND SNOW LEVELS. ON WEDNESDAY, ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE INDICATES ABOUT A 30-40% CHANCE FOR 2 INCHES IN 6 HOURS
ABOVE 2000 FEET WITH A SPREAD OF 500 FEET EITHER SIDE OF THAT.
CHANCE FOR > 2 INCHES ABOVE 2000 FEET (+/- 500 FEET) IN 6 HOURS
INCREASES TO 60-80% WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN MORE WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS WITH MAJOR IMPACTS ON OUR
HIGHWAYS, PARTICULARLY AT PASS LEVEL. THIS IS THE FIRST MAJOR SNOW
OF THE SEASON FOR NW CALIFORNIA AND IT IS BEST TO REMAIN OFF THE
ROADS AND STAY HOME IF AT ALL POSSIBLE UNTIL SNOW LEVELS INCREASE.
A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, BEFORE
A WARMER AND POTENTIALLY WINDIER STORM TAKES AIM ON NW CALIFORNIA
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS STORM SYSTEM COULD PACK A WALLOP WITH
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. CW3E AR LANDFALL TOOL,
MAINLY THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, IS DEPICTING OVER A 70% CHANCE FOR A
LONG DURATION (36-48 HOURS) OF IVT > 250 KG/M/S. GFS ENSEMBLE IS
NOT AS HIGH (50-60% CHANCE) WITH SOMEWHAT SHORTER DURATION. THE
RISK FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE. TO WHAT MAGNITUDE AND EXACT
DETAILS REMAIN ELUSIVE AT THIS POINT, BUT IT IS LARGE SCALE
PATTERN THAT IS CONDUCIVE FOR HYDRO CONCERNS (FLOODING) FOR OUR
AREA. STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS.
AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED
AT THE TERMINALS AS RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE. INTERIOR VALLEYS,
INCLUDING UKI SAW LOW STRATUS AND FOG THIS MORNING WITH MOISTURE
FROM THE RECENT RAINS. MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED,
EXCEPT DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS, WHERE IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, EXCEEDING 20 KTS AT TIMES. SMALL HAIL SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS OF 30 KTS
OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. THERE IS A POSSIBLE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT AS WELL WITH THESE WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN
SHELTERED INTERIOR VALLEYS, INCLUDING UKI, WHERE WINDS AT 2 KFT AGL
ARE LIKELY TO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE SURFACE WINDS. JB
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WITH GUSTS OF 30 KTS OR HIGHER BEING OBSERVED ON THE BUOYS.
GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. STEEP SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE WINDS. COMBINED SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FT ARE POSSIBLE WHEN
FACTORING IN A DECAYING NORTHWEST SWELL AT AROUND 7 FT. THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY BUT REMAIN ELEVATED WITH
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS. GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BRING
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT, THE STRONGEST OF WHICH COULD BRING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, GALE FORCE GUSTS, SMALL HAIL, AND ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS.
WEST WINDS EASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON IN
AREAS CLOSE TO SHORE FROM ABOUT TRINIDAD NORTHWARD, WHERE GUSTS MAY
SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15 KTS. ELSEWHERE, GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE THE MID PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL BUILDING TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PEAK
AT AROUND 14 TO 16 FT AT 13 SECONDS. THIS COULD BRING COMBINED SEAS
UP TO 18 FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS, BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. MODELS DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS QUICKLY
TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS. STEEP WIND WAVES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE WINDS AND COULD PROPAGATE INTO THE INNER WATERS.
NORTHERLY WINDS EASE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS AN ADDITIONAL
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, POSSIBLY
WITH GALE OR STORM FORCE GUSTS, ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY. JB
COASTAL FLOODING
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES RESULTED IN MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AT HIGH TIDE LATE THIS MORNING, WITH THE TIDE
REACHING 8.82 FT ABOVE MLLW. THE SURGE WAS AROUND 1.4 FEET AT HIGH
TIDE THIS MORNING. THE SAME ANOMALY AT HIGH TIDE TOMORROW, WHICH IS
AT 11:30 AM AT THE NORTH SPIT TIDE GAUGE, WOULD RESULT IN A TIDE OF
8.6 TO 8.7 FT MLLW. SHOULD THE TIDE EXCEED 8.8 FT MLLW, MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY, INCLUDING THE
ARCATA BOTTOMS AND IN KING SALMON. JB
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ101-103.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ102-105-106.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ104.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ107-
108.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ110-111-114-115.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ450-
470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
VISIT US AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTPS://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTPS://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE THE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/EKA/ZONEMAP.PNG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page