129
FXUS66 KEKA 170825
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1225 AM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
MAJOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS WITH LOW ELEVATION
SNOWFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARMER STORM WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES:
* THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, HEAVY WET SNOW WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS, DOWNED TREES AND POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY
WET SNOW WILL IMPACT TRAVEL ON HIGHWAYS 199, 299, 36, 101 AND 3.
* SMALL HAIL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE NW
CALIFORNIA COAST WITH HEAVY SHOWERS TODAY.
* ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN WITH LOW ELEVATION SNOW ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
* HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGHER SNOW LEVELS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
SNOW LEVELS OF 2000 TO 2500 FEET ARE FORECASTED TO
SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND MAY DIP DOWN TO 1500
FEET WHERE THERE IS LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION AS COLDER AIR ALOFT
GETS FORCED DOWNWARDS. MESOSCALE AND GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
500MB COLD CORE DIGS OFFSHORE THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. SHALLOW
INSTABILITY AND LOW CAPE (<500J/KG) MAY RESULT IN CONTINUED ISOLATED
LOW TOPPED STORMS AND SMALL HAIL FORMATION, AS HAS ALREADY BEEN
REPORTED. DEEPER DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES FROM 2000-3000 FEET TUESDAY
WILL YIELD HEAVY SNOW FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000-2500 FEET. HREF
CONFIDENCE FOR OVER 4 INCHES IN 6 HOURS IS HIGHEST (~80%) FOR
HUMBOLDT, DEL NORTE AND SOUTHERN TRINITY COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE FOR
OVER 4 INCHES ALSO INCREASES FOR NORTHERN MENDOCINO AND NORTHERN
LAKE, GENERALLY ABOVE 2500-3000 FEET. GREATER IMPACTS ARE LIKELY FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND 2000-2500 FEET, PARTICULARLY IN NORTHERN
MENDOCINO ON HIGHWAY 101 EARLY TUESDAY WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. THE GREATEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS WITH SNOW LEVELS.
HEAVY PRECIP RATES WILL ENABLE LOCALIZED TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS,
DRIVING DOWN FREEZING LEVELS RESULTING IN BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW
AND/OR SMALL HAIL THAT WILL STICK TO THE ROADS AND TREES, WHICH
COULD POSSIBLY FALL ON ROADWAYS. FOR THAT REASON, THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR NORTHERN MENDOCINO AND
LAKE COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IN A WINTER STORM WARNING AMOUNTS (5
INCHES OR MORE ABOVE 1500 FEET) IS NOT HIGH (A 30-50% CHANCE) FOR
LOCATIONS LIKE COBB BY 10 AM TUESDAY.
GREATER IMPACTS ARE FORECAST FOR BERRY SUMMIT ON HIGHWAY 299 AND
COLLIER TUNNEL ON HIGHWAY 199 WHERE UP TO 1 FOOT OF SNOW MAY
ACCUMULATE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE WEAVERVILLE AREA (HWY 299 AT OREGON MOUNTAIN AND
BUCKHORN SUMMIT) WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN 24-36 HOURS.
A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET IN DEL NORTE,
HUMBOLDT AND TRINITY COUNTIES.
SHOWERS AND LOW SNOW LEVELS (1500-2000 FEET) ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD TROUGH DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NW. MODELS ARE NOT IN SUPER GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING, SNOW AMOUNTS, PRECIPITATION, INTENSITY, NOR SNOW LEVELS. ON
WEDNESDAY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES ABOUT A 30-40% CHANCE FOR 2
INCHES IN 6 HOURS ABOVE 2000 FEET WITH A SPREAD OF 500 FEET EITHER
SIDE OF THAT. CHANCE FOR > 2 INCHES ABOVE 2000 FEET (+/- 500 FEET)
IN 6 HOURS INCREASES TO 60-80% WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN MORE WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS WITH MAJOR IMPACTS ON
OUR HIGHWAYS, PARTICULARLY AT PASS LEVEL. THIS IS THE FIRST MAJOR
SNOW OF THE SEASON FOR NW CALIFORNIA AND IT IS BEST TO REMAIN OFF
THE ROADS AND STAY HOME IF AT ALL POSSIBLE UNTIL SNOW LEVELS
INCREASE.
A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, BEFORE A
WARMER AND POTENTIALLY WINDIER STORM TAKES AIM AT NW CALIFORNIA THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS STORM SYSTEM COULD PACK A WALLOP WITH STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. CW3E AR LANDFALL TOOL, MAINLY THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE, IS DEPICTING OVER A 70% CHANCE FOR A LONG DURATION
(36-48 HOURS) OF IVT > 250 KG/M/S AND A MEAN IVT OF AROUND
450-600 KG/M/S FOR THAT PERIOD. THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS NOT AS HIGH
(50- 60% CHANCE) WITH SOMEWHAT SHORTER DURATION. THE ECMWF-AIFS
ENSEMBLE SHOWS RAIN TOTALS OF 2-4" ALONG THE NORTH COAST SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY FOR THIS SYSTEM AS OF RIGHT NOW. THE RISK FOR
FLOODING WILL INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS SOILS WILL BE MUCH MORE
SATURATED. AS OF RIGHT NOW, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE
MAGNITUDE AND EXACT DETAILS, YET IT SEEMS TO BE A LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAT IS CONDUCIVE FOR HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS
(FLOODING) FOR OUR AREA. STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS AND UPDATES
THROUGH THE WEEK. DS
AVIATION
SMALL HAIL AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY
OF KACV AND KCEC ACCOMPANY THE INCOMING WINTER STORM OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. MIXED LEVEL OF CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
DEEP COLD AIR MASS PUSHES TOWARDS THE PACNW. LOW ELEVATION SNOW IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. ACCUMULATION ON FLIGHT DECK
IS NOT OUT OF THE SCOPE OF POSSIBILITIES WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE
PROFILES FOR THE AREA. HAIL, SNOW, AND HEAVY BOUTS OF COLD RAIN
ARE ALREADY BEING REPORTED AND RECORDED. VFR/MVFR ARE EXPECTED
WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS INTERMITTENT WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOUR AND WINTRY WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE
NORTHERNMOST TERMINALS. KUKI IS ALSO VULNERABLE TO THE ADVERSE
WEATHER WITH LESS MAGNITUDE AND FREQUENCY. /EYS
MARINE
THE ONSET OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR THE AREA
WATERS HAVE PRODUCED GUSTY GALE FORCE WINDS, HAIL, MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A DEEP COLD AIR
MASS, WE ARE EXPECTING THE THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS AS WELL. COMBINED
SEAS AROUND 10 FEET WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO A MID PERIOD NW
SWELL, ARRIVING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND BUILDING BY THE AFTERNOON
TO A STEEP 14 TO 16 FT AT 13 SECONDS. THIS COULD BRING COMBINED SEAS
UP TO 18 FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS, BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. MODELS DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS QUICKLY
TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS. STEEP WIND WAVES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE WINDS AND COULD PROPAGATE INTO THE INNER WATERS.
NORTHERLY WINDS EASE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS AN ADDITIONAL
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, POSSIBLY
WITH GALE OR STORM FORCE GUSTS, ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY. JB/EYS
COASTAL FLOODING
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES RESULTED IN MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AT HIGH TIDE MONDAY, WITH THE TIDE REACHING 8.82
FT ABOVE MLLW AND A SURGE WAS AROUND 1.4 FEET. APPLYING THE SAME
ANOMALY FOR HIGH TIDE TODAY RESULTS IN A TIDE OF 8.6 TO 8.7 FT
MLLW AT 11:30 AM AT THE NORTH SPIT TIDE GAUGE. SHOULD THE TIDE
EXCEED 8.8 FT MLLW, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND
HUMBOLDT BAY, INCLUDING THE ARCATA BOTTOMS AND IN KING SALMON.
JB/DS
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ101-
103.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ102-
104>108-110-111-114-115.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ450-
470.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PZZ455-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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