342
FXUS66 KEKA 180854
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1254 AM PST WED FEB 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
SNOW, SMALL HAIL AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A SHORT BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED. RAIN AND
LOW ELEVATION SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PRECIP IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING RAIN, SNOW, AND
STRONG WIND.
KEY MESSAGES:
* THROUGH TONIGHT, HEAVY WET SNOW WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS, DOWNED TREES AND POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY WET
SNOW WILL IMPACT TRAVEL ON HIGHWAYS 199, 299, 36, 101 AND 3.
* SMALL HAIL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE NW
CALIFORNIA COAST WITH HEAVY SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
* AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN AND SNOW, ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
RAIN WITH LOW ELEVATION SNOW ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
* HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGHER SNOW LEVELS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEKEND. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES.
DISCUSSION
THE COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CONTINUING TO BRING SHOWERS
TO THE AREA THIS EVENING. MANY OF THESE CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AS SNOW
LEVELS STILL HOVER AROUND 1500 FEET. LATE TONIGHT, SOME OF THE SNOW
LEVELS MAY EVEN DROP DOWN TO SEA LEVEL. A FEW FLAKES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
AT THE COAST, ALTHOUGH NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECASTED. SNOW LEVELS MAY
DROP TO 500 OR 1000 FEET, ALTHOUGH LESS PRECIPITATION AND LIGHTER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS MORNING WITH
A GENERAL BREAK IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ANOTHER WAVE OF FRONTAL ENERGY SHOULD DROP DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING MORE RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FEET OVER THE AREAS WITH LEVELS
AS LOW AS 500-1000FT FOR INTERIOR DEL NORTE, TRINITY, AND N.
HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL
ALONG THE COAST.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOWS DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SNOW LEVELS BEFORE GIVING WAY TO DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL BE VERY COLD, YET HOW MUCH THIS IS
FELT AT SURFACE WILL DEPEND ON THE EXTEND OF CLOUD COVERAGE.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MAY END UP WARMER THAN EXPECTED IF
THERE ARE MORE LOW CLOUDS. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WHEN IT GETS CLOSER.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODELS SHOW A SERIES STRONG WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS MAY START OFF AROUND
1500 TO 2000 FEET AND ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AS IT GOES THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY AS HEAVIER PRECIP MOVES IN. THAT SAID, SNOW LEVELS
OFTEN RISE SLOWER THAN THE MODELS PREDICT SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THIS
EVENT WILL BE FULL OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR MENDOCINO AND
LAKE COUNTIES. THE ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING HIGHER IVT'S WITH A 75%
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 250 KG/M/S, HOWEVER VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR
OVER 500 KG/M/S. WHILE THIS IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG, IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE QUICK IMPULSES THAT MAY OVERWHELM THE
RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BREAKS IN RAIN WILL BE
A BIG FACTOR IN THE LEVEL OF IMPACTS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MEAN
NBM 24 HOUR MAX GUST SHOWS AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND THE HIGHER ELEVATION WIND GUSTS ARE SHOWING OVER 70 MPH.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS HAVE PREVAILED
AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. RANDOM RAIN SHOWERS,
INTENSE AND MIXED WITH SMALL HAIL AT TIMES, HAS OCCASIONALLY
RESULTED IN MVFR CEILINGS FROM 1500-3000 FEET AND IFR VSBY AROUND 1
TO 2 MILES. THAT SAID, EXPECT VFR TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THU. THERE
IS ABOUT A 50% CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND A 20% CHANCE FOR IFR
VSBY IN MORE INTENSE CONVECTION OR SHOWERS AT ANY GIVEN TIME. WINDS
WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY LIGHT, 10 KT OR LESS, WITH A 25% CHANCE
FOR GUSTS TO 30 KT IN SHOWERS.
MARINE
A LARGE, STEEP, NORTHWEST SWELL IS FORECAST THROUGH WED.
AS OF TUESDAY EVENING, SEAS WERE STILL AROUND 14 TO 16 FT AT 13
SECONDS WHICH IS BORDERLINE FOR A WARNING FOR SEAS. WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY OR WESTERLY ON WED AND COULD GUSTS TO 20-25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. A WEST WIND SURGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE WED NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY PERIODIC GALE FORCE N WIND
GUSTS FOR MOSTLY THE OUTER WATERS ON THU. CONDITIONS SETTLE DOWN ON
FRI BEFORE A SERIES OF POWERFUL FRONTAL SYSTEMS BRING A MODERATE TO
HIGH RISK FOR GALE OR STORM FORCE WINDS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN
NIGHT.
COASTAL FLOODING
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES RESULTED IN MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AT HIGH TIDE TUESDAY, WITH THE TIDE REACHING 8.81
FT ABOVE MLLW WITH A SURGE AROUND 1.5 FEET. APPLYING THE SAME
ANOMALY FOR HIGH TIDE WEDNESDAY RESULTS IN A TIDE OF 8.6 TO 8.7 FT
MLLW AT 11:45 AM AT THE NORTH SPIT TIDE GAUGE. SHOULD THE TIDE
EXCEED 8.8 FT MLLW, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND
HUMBOLDT BAY, INCLUDING THE ARCATA BOTTOMS AND IN KING SALMON. JB
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CAZ101-103.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ102-
104>108-110-111-114-115.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
CAZ113-115.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ455-470-
475.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
PZZ470-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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