137
FXUS66 KEKA 190948
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
148 AM PST THU FEB 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
ADDITIONAL HEAVY WET SNOW, RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAJOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS
WITH LOW ELEVATION SNOWFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. A BREAK
IN THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING
RAIN, SNOW AND STRONG WIND.
KEY MESSAGES:
* ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAIN, HEAVY WET SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS,
DOWNED TREES AND POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES.
* MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE ON HIGHWAYS 199, 299, 3, 36 AND
101 THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
* SMALL HAIL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE
NW CALIFORNIA COAST, WITH HEAVY SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
* A BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, WITH BELOW-NORMAL DIURNAL AND
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
* HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGHER SNOW LEVELS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS PROBABLE
THIS WEEKEND. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN DEL NORTE, HUMBOLDT,
MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES.
DISCUSSION
WIDESPREAD RAIN, HEAVY WET SNOW, AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN OCCLUDED COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM
THE PACIFIC NW. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 1,000 TO
2,000 FEET, WITH LEVELS AS LOW AS 500-1,000FT FOR TRINITY, INTERIOR
DEL NORTE, TRINITY, AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. DOWN SOUTH, A
WARMER AIR MASS WILL SLIGHTLY RAISE THE SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 2,000-
3,000 FEET AT MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST WET
SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2,000 FEET IN DEL
NORTE, HUMBOLDT AND TRINITY COUNTIES; LIGHTER AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCHES
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1,000 FEET TO 2,000 FEET. MEANWHILE, 4 TO 6
INCHES OF WET SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2,500 FEET IN
MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES. MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE ON
HIGHWAYS 199, 299, 3, 36 AND 101 THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SMALL HAIL AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH THE
HEAVY SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH CAN CREATE
SLIPPERY "ICE RINK" CONDITIONS ON THE ROADS IN A MATTER OF SECONDS.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING AS NORTHERLY WINDS
ALOFT BRING A DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE
VERY COLD, YET HOW MUCH THIS IS FELT AT SURFACE WILL DEPEND ON THE
EXTEND OF CLOUD COVERAGE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
WARMER THAN EXPECTED IF THERE ARE MORE LOW CLOUDS. EITHER WAY,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR SW
HUMBOLDT, COASTAL MENDOCINO, THE RUSSIAN RIVER VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN
LAKE COUNTY. ON FRIDAY, A BRIEF BREAK OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALLOWING EVEN COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS IF CLOUDS DO NOT INHIBIT
NIGHTTIME COOLING.
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH THE APPROACH OF A BROAD CLOSED UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE WPC 500 MB CLUSTER ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A BROAD CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL, HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR BOTH THE GEFS AND
EPS ARE SHOWING A HIGH PROBABILITIES (90-100% CHANCE) OF AT A
WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER (IVT'S GREATER THAN 250 KG/M/S), HOWEVER
THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE (35-60% CHANCE) FOR OVER 500 KG/M/S.
WHILE THIS IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE MULTIPLE IMPULSES THAT MAY OVER WHELM THE RIVERS AND STREAMS.
THERE STILL UNCERTAINTIES ON EXACT TIMING OF THE RAIN PULSES,
WHICH WILL BE A BIG FACTOR IN THE LEVEL OF IMPACTS. STRONG,
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MEAN NBM 24 HOUR MAX GUST SHOWS AROUND 40 TO
55 MPH AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND THE HIGHER ELEVATION WIND GUSTS
ARE SHOWING OVER 70 MPH. /DS
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS HAVE PREVAILED
AT THE TERMINALS WITH PERIODS OF RANDOM RAIN SHOWERS, INTENSE AND
MIXED WITH SMALL HAIL AT TIMES, HAS OCCASIONALLY RESULTED IN MVFR
CEILINGS FROM 1500-3000 FEET AND IFR VSBY AROUND 1 TO 2 MILES.
EXPECT VFR TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS ABOUT A 50%
CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND A 20% CHANCE FOR IFR VSBY IN MORE
INTENSE CONVECTION OR SHOWERS AT ANY GIVEN TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY LIGHT, 10 KT OR LESS, WITH A 25% CHANCE FOR GUSTS
TO 30 KT IN SHOWERS.
MARINE
A LARGE, STEEP, NORTHWEST SWELL WILL DIMINISH INTO
THURSDAY. A WEST WIND SURGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY PERIODIC GALE FORCE N WIND
GUSTS FOR MOSTLY THE OUTER WATERS ON THU. GALES ARE MOST LIKELY
FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. CONDITIONS SETTLE DOWN VERY BRIEFLY
ON FRI BEFORE A SERIES OF POWERFUL FRONTAL SYSTEMS BRING A
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR GALE OR STORM FORCE WINDS FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MORE SPECIFIC UPDATES AND DETAILS FOR THE
HAZARDOUS WEEKEND WILL BECOME AVAILABLE SOON AS HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.
HYDROLOGY
AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NW
CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID RISES ON
RIVERS, STREAMS AND CREEKS ACROSS THE REGION. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) INCLUDED DEL NORTE COUNTY, HUMBOLDT,
MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES IN THE MARGINAL RISK (AT LEAST 5%) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY. THERE IS A 55 TO 80% CHANCE FOR
24-HR PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION >1" FROM 4 PM SATURDAY THROUGH
4 PM SUNDAY, WITH UP TO 95% CHANCE FOR THE EXPOSED RIDGES IN DEL
NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. THERE IS A 50-75% PROB. FOR >2" & A
30-50% FOR >3" FOR ELEVATED COAST TERRAIN SAT TO SUN.
A RAPID RISE OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
AT THIS POINT, THE RUSSIAN RIVER AT HOPLAND HAS AROUND A 20%
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY EVENING. MANY OTHER RIVERS
SUCH AS THE NAVARRO, MAD, AND EEL ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
ACTION/MONITOR STAGE. THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT GETS
CLOSER. THE REST OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH/EXCEED FLOOD STAGE AS OF YET./DS
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
CAZ101-103.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
CAZ102-105>108.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CAZ104-110-111-114-115.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
CAZ104-109-112-113-115.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PZZ455.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PZZ470-475.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ470.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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