595
FXUS66 KEKA 202356
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
356 PM PST FRI FEB 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING
STRONG TO DAMAGING SOUTH WINDS, A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG WITH
DEEPEN IVT PLUME IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET EARLY
INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG TO DAMAGING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK
OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.
* PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
* INCREASED RISK FOR MINOR FLOODING OF SMALLER RIVER, CREEKS AND
STREAMS, URBAN AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL
SYSTEMS ALONG WITH IVT PLUME IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY SNOW AND HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE A
BROAD CLOSED UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE TO DROP FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEPAC). AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS SPREADING HIGH LEVEL- CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WARM FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A COMPACT
SURFACE LOW SWINGING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE COASTAL
HEADLAND AND EXPOSED RIDGES TONIGHT AS A COASTAL JET DEVELOPS
ALONG THE COAST. GUST FROM 40 TO 60 MPH ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOPED
LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL HEADLANDS AND EXPOSED RIDGES IN DEL
NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
FROM LATE THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH
STRONG TO DAMAGING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL HEADLANDS
AND EXPOSED RIDGES. A BROAD SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP WELL OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST SATURDAY MORNING, AND TRACK NORTH- NORTHEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A LONG- DURATION
LOW LEVEL JET AT 925 MB FROM 65 TO 75 KTS ALONG THE NW CALIFORNIA
COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IT WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE AND STRONG
WINDS ALOFT MOST LIKELY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY NEAR OR ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. THE STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH,BEGINNING TONIGHT FOR DEL
NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO MENDOCINO
COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
GUST UP TO 50 MPH IS EXPECTED FOR THE HUMBOLDT COAST, MENDOCINO
COAST AND NORTHERN MENDOCINO INTERIOR. UP TO 70 MPH ARE FORECAST
FOR THE COASTAL HEADLAND AND EXPOSED RIDGES IN DEL NORTE AND
HUMBOLDT COUNTY, WITH LOCALLY UP TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE OVER THE MORE
PROMINENT EXPOSED RIDGES. EVEN DEL NORTE COAST IS EXPECTED TO BE
IMPACTED BY DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE TO UPGRADE THE WIND ADVISORY TO HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
DEL NORTE COUNTY, HUMBOLDT INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST HUMBOLDT. A WIND
ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COAST, MENDOCINO
COAST AND NORTHERN MENDOCINO INTERIOR.
CAMS ARE SUGGESTING A NARROW LINE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACTIVITY
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST
EARLY SUNDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE WITH
A SHALLOW INSTABILITY SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND NEARSHORE COAST. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FORECAST UP TO
2.5 INCHES FOR DEL NORTE COUNTY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY THROUGH 4 AM
MONDAY, AND 0.75 TO 1.50 INCHES FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY. LOCALLY UP
TO 3 INCHES IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WINDWARD FACING
TERRAIN.
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER (IVT'S GREATER THAN 500 KG/M/S) IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. THIS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE STILL UNCERTAINTIES ON EXACT TIMING OF THE BREAKS IN RAIN
WILL BE A BIG FACTOR IN THE LEVEL OF IMPACTS. 48 HR NBM
PROBABILITY INDICATES THERE IS A 50-75% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ACROSS DEL NORTE, HUMBOLDT, SOUTHERN TRINITY
AND NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTIES FROM 4 AM MONDAY THROUGH 4 AM
WEDNESDAY, AND A 15-30% CHANCE FOR AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND LOWEST
ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES. STAY TUNED!
/ZVS
AVIATION
VERY SHALLOW AND LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG ASIDE, VFR
CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED ALL ACROSS THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY SCATTERED
SKIES. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN THIS EVENING,
WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL TERMINALS. VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT CEILINGS STAYING
OVER 4 KFT WILL MOST LIKELY MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS LITTLE
CHANCE (LESS THAN 20%) OF CEILINGS DROPPING TO MVFR. STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SATURDAY WITH INCREASING RISK FOR LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR. /JHW
MARINE
MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS HAVE VERY BRIEFLY BUILT OVER THE
WATERS WITH GUSTS MOSTLY BELOW 15 KTS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS SLOWLY
FALLING BELOW 6 FEET. THESE CALMER CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SHORT
LIVED AS WINDS TURN SOUTH EASTERLY AND RAPIDLY BUILD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD GALE CONDITIONS WILL BUILD ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
FIRST AND SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH AND CLOSER TO SHORE THROUGH THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT STORM CONDITIONS (GUSTS OVER 48 KTS) WILL
EFFECT THE OUTER WATERS (90% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS) BY EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH GALE CONDITIONS WILL BUILD INTO THE INNER WATERS
AROUND THIS TIME, WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY STALL DURING THE DAY
BEFORE SURGING LATER IN THE EVENING. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF AT
LEAST ISOLATED STORM GUSTS IN THE INNER WATERS SATURDAY EVENING.
VERY STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 22 FEET IN THE
NORTHERN WATERS, THOUGH THE CAPE WILL PARTIALLY PROTECT THE INNER
WATERS AND KEEP SEAS CLOSER TO 8 TO 12 FEET. SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER.
STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GALE FORCE BUT LIKELY FALL BELOW STORM FORCE DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH SHORT PERIOD SEAS GRADUALLY FALLING CLOSER TO 12
FEET. SHORT PERIOD SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ONLY A VERY MINOR MID PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL UP TO 6 FEET
MIXING WITH THE SHORT PERIOD SEAS. /JHW
HYDROLOGY
AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NW
CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID
RISES ON RIVERS, STREAMS AND CREEKS ACROSS THE REGION. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) INCLUDED DEL NORTE COUNTY, HUMBOLDT, MENDOCINO
AND LAKE COUNTIES IN THE MARGINAL RISK (AT LEAST 5%) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR DAY 4 AND 5 (MONDAY AND TUESDAY). THERE IS A 55 TO
80% CHANCE FOR 24-HR PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 1 INCH
FROM 4 PM MONDAY THROUGH 4 AM TUESDAY, WITH UP TO 90% CHANCE FOR
THE KING RANGE IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
A RAPID RISE OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT THE CNRFC IS FORECASTING ALL
MAIN STEM RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE DURING THIS EVENT.
THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE FOR THE EEL RIVER AT FERNBRIDGE REACHING
OR EXCEEDING ACTION/MONITOR STAGE ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, THERE
IS A LESS OF 10% CHANCE FOR REACHING OR EXCEEDING ACTION/MONITOR
STAGE FOR MAD RIVER AT ARCATA. THE REST OF THE MAIN STEM RIVER ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH/EXCEED FLOOD STAGE AS OF YET./ ZVS
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR CAZ101.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST
SUNDAY FOR CAZ102-104>106.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
CAZ103.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM PST SUNDAY
FOR CAZ107.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
CAZ109-110-112.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ450.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR PZZ455.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST SATURDAY
FOR PZZ470.
STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ475.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ475.
STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
VISIT US AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTPS://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTPS://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE THE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/EKA/ZONEMAP.PNG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page