727
FXUS66 KEKA 210810
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1210 AM PST SAT FEB 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING
STRONG TO DAMAGING SOUTH WINDS, A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW EARLY INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG TO DAMAGING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK OF
DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.
* PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
* INCREASED RISK FOR MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS AND
URBAN AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS
IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY
RAIN, AND HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW.
A BROAD CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEPAC). SOUTHERLY
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE IN DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES AS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER
THE EXPOSED RIDGES AND COASTAL HEADLANDS, WHERE GUSTS OF 40 TO 60
MPH ARE POSSIBLE. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH
STRONG TO DAMAGING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL HEADLANDS
AND EXPOSED RIDGES. A BROAD SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP WELL OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING, AND TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A LONG-
DURATION LOW LEVEL JET AT 925 MB FROM 65 TO 75 KTS ALONG THE NW
CALIFORNIA COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IT WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE AND
STRONG WINDS ALOFT MOST LIKELY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR OR ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT. THE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH, BEGINNING TONIGHT FOR DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES AND
SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO MENDOCINO COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON, AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IS EXPECTED FOR
THE HUMBOLDT COAST, MENDOCINO COAST AND NORTHERN MENDOCINO INTERIOR.
UP TO 70 MPH GUSTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL HEADLAND AND EXPOSED
RIDGES IN DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTY, WITH LOCALLY UP TO 80 MPH
POSSIBLE OVER THE MORE PROMINENT EXPOSED RIDGES. EVEN DEL NORTE
COAST IS EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED BY DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
INTERIOR HUMBOLDT, THE KING RANGE, AND DEL NORTE COUNTY, INCLUDING
THE COAST. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE HUMBOLDT COAST,
MENDOCINO COAST, AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY.
CAMS ARE SUGGESTING A NARROW LINE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACTIVITY
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST EARLY
SUNDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE WITH SHALLOW
INSTABILITY SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
NEARSHORE COAST. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FORECAST UP TO 2.5 INCHES
FOR DEL NORTE COUNTY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY THROUGH 4 AM MONDAY, AND 0.75
TO 1.50 INCHES FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY. LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WINDWARD FACING TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE,
AROUND 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES IS EXPECTED FOR HUMBOLDT, TRINITY, AND
NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTIES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE KING RANGE. SOUTHERN MENDOCINO AND LAKE
ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN.
SNOW LEVELS START OUT AROUND 2000 TO 2500 FT THIS MORNING, MEANING
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL TO LOWER ELEVATIONS IN TRINITY
COUNTY OVER SOME OF THE PASSES ON HIGHWAYS 3, 36, AND 299, AND
PERHAPS A FEW SNOWFLAKES DOWN TO WEAVERVILLE. THIS IS A WARM SYSTEM,
SO SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO GRADUALLY RISE UP TO 4000 TO 4500 FT BY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIMIT SNOW IMPACTS MAINLY TO HIGHWAY 3 AT
SCOTT MOUNTAIN PASS. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS
CONTINUE TO RISE AND ARE LIKELY TO BE ABOVE 6000 FT BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE TO ABOVE 8000 FT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER (IVT'S GREATER THAN 500 KG/M/S) IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. THIS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE STILL
UNCERTAINTIES ON EXACT TIMING OF THE BREAKS IN RAIN WILL BE A BIG
FACTOR IN THE LEVEL OF IMPACTS. 48 HR NBM PROBABILITY INDICATES
THERE IS A 50-75% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ACROSS
DEL NORTE, HUMBOLDT, SOUTHERN TRINITY AND NORTHERN MENDOCINO
COUNTIES FROM 4 AM MONDAY THROUGH 4 AM WEDNESDAY, AND A 15-30%
CHANCE FOR AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN
MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES. STAY TUNED! /ZVS/JB
AVIATION
A COMPACT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE NEPAC, CONTINUES TOWARD NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. AN ASSOCIATED COASTAL JET WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING, BRINGING GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHER
ELEVATION TERMINALS THAT MAY BE AROUND COASTAL HEADLANDS OR EXPOSED
RIDGES. BEFORE THE WINDS MIX DOWN TO LOWER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS
MORNING, LLWS WILL BE AN ISSUE, ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST COASTAL TERMINALS
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER GUSTS EXPECTED FOR LOWER ELEVATION TERMINALS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON. OVERCAST SKIES WILL
DOMINATE WITH ELEVATED WINDS KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR. /JLW
MARINE
WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHEASTERLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. WIDESPREAD GALE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD
THROUGH ALL THE MARINE ZONES BY EARLY TO MID MORNING. CONDITIONS
HAVE REACHED THE NORTHERN WATERS AND WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH AND
CLOSER TO SHORE THROUGH THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT STORM
CONDITIONS (GUSTS OVER 48 KTS) WILL EFFECT THE OUTER WATERS (90% OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS) BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BUILD INTO THE INNER WATERS AROUND THIS TIME, WIND
SPEEDS WILL LIKELY STALL DURING THE DAY BEFORE SURGING LATER IN THE
EVENING. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM GUSTS IN
THE INNER WATERS SATURDAY EVENING. VERY STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL
BUILD IN EXCESS OF 22 FEET IN THE NORTHERN WATERS, THOUGH THE CAPE
WILL PARTIALLY PROTECT THE INNER WATERS AND KEEP SEAS CLOSER TO 8 TO
12 FEET. SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER.
STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GALE FORCE BUT LIKELY FALL BELOW STORM FORCE DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH SHORT PERIOD SEAS GRADUALLY FALLING CLOSER TO 12
FEET. SHORT PERIOD SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ONLY A VERY MINOR MID PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL UP TO 6 FEET
MIXING WITH THE SHORT PERIOD SEAS. /JHW
HYDROLOGY
AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NW
CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID
RISES ON RIVERS, STREAMS AND CREEKS ACROSS THE REGION. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) INCLUDED DEL NORTE COUNTY, HUMBOLDT,
MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES IN THE MARGINAL RISK (AT LEAST 5%) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR DAY 4 AND 5 (MONDAY AND TUESDAY). THERE IS A
60 TO 80% CHANCE FOR 24-HR PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 1
INCH FROM 4 PM MONDAY THROUGH 4 AM TUESDAY, WITH UP TO 90% CHANCE
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE.
RAPID RISES OF THE MAIN STEM RIVERS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT THE CNRFC IS FORECASTING ALL MAIN STEM
RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE DURING THIS EVENT. THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE FOR THE EEL RIVER AT FERNBRIDGE REACHING OR EXCEEDING
ACTION/MONITOR STAGE ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, THERE IS A LESS OF 10%
CHANCE FOR REACHING OR EXCEEDING ACTION/MONITOR STAGE FOR MAD RIVER
AT ARCATA. THERE IS AROUND A 10% CHANCE FOR THE RUSSIAN RIVER AT
HOPLAND AND THE NAVARRO RIVER AT NAVARRO TO REACH FLOOD STAGE. ALL
OTHER RIVERS HAVE LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE TO REACH MONITOR OR FLOOD
STAGE. /ZVS
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ101.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ102-104>106.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR CAZ103.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST
SUNDAY FOR CAZ107.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR CAZ109-110-112.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PZZ455.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
PZZ455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PZZ470.
STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PZZ475.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ475.
STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
VISIT US AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTPS://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTPS://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE THE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/EKA/ZONEMAP.PNG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page