345
FXUS66 KEKA 212304
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
304 PM PST SAT FEB 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO STRONG GUST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED
BY STRONG TO DAMAGING SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 4500 FEET ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG TO DAMAGING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK
OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
* LIGHT TO MODERATE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ON SUNDAY, WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS
BEGINNING ABOUT 4500 FEET, RISING TO ABOVE 6000 FEET SUNDAY
EVENING.
* ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL,
MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET, AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
* INCREASED RISK FOR MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS
AND URBAN AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A 989 MB SURFACE LOW, LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE
OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST OREGON COASTS (NEAR 41N
130W), IS STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY WHILE TRACKING NORTH- NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE NEPAC. BREEZY TO STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL HEADLAND AND EXPOSED RIDGES, AS WELL AS
A LONG THE CHANNELED TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY IN DEL NORTE AND
HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. GUSTS FROM 40 TO 55 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL HEADLANDS AND EXPOSED RIDGES IN
DEL NORTE, HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN MENDOCINO. EVEN AROUND THE
HUMBOLDT BAY, STRONG GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED.
AS OF 1 PM PST, THE STRONGEST WIND REPORTED WAS 64 MPH AT THE
UPPER BEAR RIVER ROAD STATION IN CAPE MENDOCINO. THESE SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE PROMOTING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES UP TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY'S READINGS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH
COAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD
INTO MENDOCINO COAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, WITH THE STRONGEST
GUSTS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE NW CALIFORNIA COAST. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IS EXPECTED FOR
THE HUMBOLDT COAST, MENDOCINO COAST AND NORTHERN MENDOCINO
INTERIOR. UP TO 70 MPH GUSTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL HEADLAND
AND EXPOSED RIDGES IN DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTY, WITH LOCALLY
UP TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE OVER THE MORE PROMINENT EXPOSED RIDGES.
EVEN DEL NORTE COAST IS EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED BY DAMAGING WINDS
UP TO 60 MPH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR INTERIOR HUMBOLDT, THE KING RANGE, AND DEL NORTE
COUNTY, INCLUDING THE COAST. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
HUMBOLDT COAST, MENDOCINO COAST, AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MENDOCINO INTERIOR.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM COUPLE WITH SOUTHWEST MOISTURE FLUX BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE.
RAIN WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT. CAMS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A NARROW LINE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACTIVITY
APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE WITH SHALLOW INSTABILITY SUNDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEARSHORE COAST. EXPECT
LIGHT TO MODERATE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED IN DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. THE HREF
PROBABILITY OF 6 HOURS PRECIPITATION GREATER THAN 1 INCH IS AROUND
45 TO 75% FOR LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST FACING
HIGHER SLOPES IN DEL NORTE COUNTY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM SUNDAY
(2/22) LOCAL TIME. RAINFALL TOTAL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM RANGE
FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN DEL NORTE....ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO
DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY. MEANWHILE, 0.5 TO 1 INCH IN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY, WITH LOCALLY UP TO 1.5 IN THE KING RANGE. THE LOWEST
AMOUNTS MAY BE LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH IS FORECAST FOR THE
VALLEYS IN TRINITY, LAKE COUNTY AND MENDOCINO WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE UP TO 4000 TO 4500 FT BY
THIS EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT SNOW IMPACTS MAINLY
TO HIGHWAY 3 AT SCOTT MOUNTAIN PASS, WHERE UP TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4500 FEET FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE AND ARE LIKELY TO BE ABOVE
6000 FT BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE TO ABOVE
8000 FT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG WITH A MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
(IVT'S GREATER THAN 500 KG/M/S) IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE REMAIN REGARDING THE
SPECIFIC DETAILS AT THIS MOMENT. 48 HR NBM PROBABILITY NOW INDICATES
AN INCREASING 60-90% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 2 INCHES
ACROSS DEL NORTE, HUMBOLDT, SOUTHERN TRINITY AND NORTHERN
MENDOCINO COUNTIES FROM 4 AM MONDAY THROUGH 4 AM WEDNESDAY, AND A
25-40% CHANCE FOR AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN
SOUTHERN MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES. IN ADDITION, THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL HEADLANDS
AND EXPOSED RIDGES ALONG THE NORTH COAST. STAY TUNED! /ZVS
AVIATION...18Z TAFS
MAIN THREATS ARE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
TURBULENCE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL TO ISOLATED AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AFTER 12Z. VFR TO MVFR
CIGS AND VIS WILL BE MAINTAINED OUTSIDE OF TEMPO HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION RATES.
A PASSING STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS WILL ARE
OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. WINDS ALOFT
NEAR 2000 FT AGL OF 50 TO 70 KTS WILL CREATE A HIGH RISK FOR
DANGEROUS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE. WINDS ALOFT AND
THROUGH THE SURFACE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN WEAKENING AFTER 14Z SUNDAY,
BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KTS NEAR 2000FT AGL WILL REMAIN A
HAZARD INTO MONDAY MORNING. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
RAISING CEILING HEIGHTS. CHANCES FOR MVFR CEILINGS INCREASE TO 55
PERCENT AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. JJW
MARINE
STORM CONDITIONS ARE UNDERWAY OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND
AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO, WILE SOLID GALE GUSTS AND LOCALIZED STORM
GUSTS CONTINUE IN THE INNERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATER (ZONE 470) WHERE HIGH END STORM
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 KTS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING. SATELLITE
ESTIMATED WINDS (SCATTEROMETER) ESTIMATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KTS
AT THE 11:30 AM PASS, AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS HIGHLY LIKELY TO
HAVE OCCURRED SINCE THEN. SEAS ARE VERY STEEP, LARGE, AND HAZARDOUS.
SEAS WILL BE PARTICULARLY LARGE IN ZONE 470, UP TO 25 FT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY, BUT GALE
STRENGTH GUSTS WILL LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY.
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL BEGIN INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BETTER
COVERAGE OF 34 KT GUSTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN EXTENSION OF
THE GALE WARNINGS IN ST LEAST ZONE 470 MAY BE REQUIRED TO COVER
THIS. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING WOULD BE REQUIRED OTHERWISE FOR
MULTIPLE ZONES FOR STEEP SEAS OF 13 TO 15 FT.
ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL CRANK UP THE SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 34KTS. A GALE WARNING
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THAT PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY. THIS BREAK IN LARGE SEAS AND STRONG
WINDS LOOKS TO CARRY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION DEVELOPS. JJW
HYDROLOGY
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ101-102-
104>106.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ103-109-110-112.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST
SUNDAY FOR CAZ107.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ450.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ455.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ470.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ470-475.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ475.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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