239
FXUS66 KEKA 222256
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
256 PM PST SUN FEB 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
* LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN DEL NORTE COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS ABOUT RISING
TO ABOVE 6000 FEET THIS EVENING.
* ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL,
MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET, AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
* INCREASED RISK FOR MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS
AND URBAN AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
* FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR DEL NORTE, HUMBOLDT, TRINITY, MENDOCINO AND LAKE
COUNTIES.
DISCUSSION
A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLED NEARSHORE CONTINUE
PROMOTING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WAS
OBSERVED THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE RAIN RATES. LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH IVT'S SPIKING UP ABOVE 500 KG/M/S IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A LOW-LEVEL JET IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING
WARMER AIR ADVECTION IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND AID IN RISING SNOW
LEVELS ABOVE 8000-9000 FEET ALONG WITH STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS THE COASTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST. A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR OR
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS FROM 40 TO 55 MPH IS FORECAST OVER THE
COASTAL HEADLANDS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF INTERIOR DEL NORTE AND
HUMBOLDT...ALTHOUGH UP TO AROUND 60 MPH IS EXPECTED OVER THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. HREF ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATED GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE, ECMWF ENSEMBLE INDICATED
MEAN GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH FOR CRESCENT CITY, AND HUMBOLDT BAY AND
EEL DELTA. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL HEADLANDS
AND EXPOSED RIDGES IN DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES FROM MONDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
MONDAY OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE FROM 10
PM MONDAY TO 10 AM TUESDAY IN MOST AREAS. MANY AREAS ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THIS TIME FRAME. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS THE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING,
FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL TOTAL
AMOUNTS FROM THIS EVENT RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES FOR DEL NORTE AND
THE KING RANGE FROM 4 PM MONDAY THROUGH 4 AM WEDNESDAY, WITH
LOCALLY UP TO 8 INCHES. FOR ELSEWHERE, 1 TO 2.5 INCHES IS
EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY UP TO 5.5 OVER THE SOUTHWEST WINDWARD-
FACING TERRAIN. LOWEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTY WHERE 0.5 TO 1 INCH IS EXPECTED. A FLOOD WATCH FOR SMALL
STREAM FLOODING. HOWEVER, DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND LOW FLOWS
WILL LIMIT THE RISK FOR FLOODING UNLESS DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS
AND RAIN RATES EXCEED 1 INCH/HOUR AND SUSTAIN FOR A LONG DURATION
OVER THE SAME SPOT. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
/ZVS
AVIATION...18Z TAFS
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STREAMING
IN A BAND OF SHOWERS AND SOME MODERATE RAINFALL. THE MODERATE
PRECIPITATION IS OCCASIONALLY BRINING IFR VIS AND MVFR CIGS TO THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. THE RAINFALL AND LINGERING SHOWERS WILL FADE
AFTER 6Z MONDAY. SOUTH WIND AROUND 40 KTS THROUGH 2000 FT AGL
CONTINUE THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z MONDAY
FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
UKI: CONTINUED SHOWERS, TO VICINITY LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER 6Z MONDAY.
AN 80 TO 90% CHANCE FOR CEILINGS LESS THAN 3000 FT TO CONTINUES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT LEAST TEMPO MOVEMENT AT OR BELOW 1700 FT
EXPECTED (50%), WITH CHANCES (30%) FOR MOVEMENT BELOW 1000 FT 6Z TO
15Z MONDAY. OCCASIONAL SOUTH WINDS OF 25 KTS THROUGH 2000 FT AGL
CONTINUES A MARGINAL RISK FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH 9Z
MONDAY. JJW
MARINE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EASING TODAY BEHIND THE PASSING OF A
STRONG FRONT. GALE STRENGTH GUSTS WILL LINGER LONGER AROUND CAPE
MENDOCINO AND OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER ZONE (470) THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL ALSO BE SLOWER TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THESE DESCRIBED AREAS AND MAY WARRANT A HAZARDOUS SEAS
WARNING BEHIND THE EXPIRING GALE TONIGHT.
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFTS FOR GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
REPRIEVE IN ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE INNERS (OUT 10 NM) EARLY
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN THEREAFTER SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE QUICKLY INCREASING FROM A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM.
GALE STRENGTH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KTS WILL ARRIVE MONDAY EVENING OVER
THE WATERS, INCLUDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE INNERS, WITH ISOLATED 45
KT GUSTS AROUND THE CAPE AND THROUGH ZONE 470. THE RESPONSIBLE FRONT
WILL BE RELATIVELY QUICK TO PASS, AND WINDS WILL BEGIN EASING INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GALE WATCHES ARE OUT FOR THE OUTER ZONES STARTING
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY THE COVERAGE OF GALE STRENGTH GUSTS
IS NOT BROAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALE OR HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCHES OR
WARNINGS FOR THE INNERS, BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED. JJW
HYDROLOGY
A SECOND ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NW
CALIFORNIAN LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR A DURATIONS OF 24 TO 36 HOURS AND WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID RISES ON RIVERS, STREAMS AND CREEKS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) CONTINUES
TO INCLUDE DEL NORTE COUNTY, HUMBOLDT, TRINITY, MENDOCINO AND LAKE
COUNTIES IN THE MARGINAL RISK (AT LEAST 5%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE (75 TO
95%) FOR 24-HR PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 1 INCH FROM
4 PM MONDAY THROUGH 4 PM TUESDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH
HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE.
CONVECTIVE ALLOW MODELS WILL LIKELY SHED MORE LIGHT ON HOURLY
RATES. RISK FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL INCREASE ON
TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT, ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE. STAY TUNED AS FORECASTS,
PARTICULARLY RIVER STAGE FORECASTS, CAN AND DO CHANGE. /ZVS
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
CAZ101>115.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
CAZ102.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
CAZ104-106.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CAZ107.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ450.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
PZZ450-470-475.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ455-475.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM PST
MONDAY FOR PZZ470.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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