970
FXUS66 KEKA 080901
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
101 AM PST SUN MAR 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
SOME WEAK CLIPPING FRONTS WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OF
VERY LIGHT COASTAL DRIZZLE OR A FEW SHOWERS BETWEEN PERIODS OF
REBOUNDING WARM TEMPERATURES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY,
PARTICULARLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS, OR MORE LIKELY LIGHT DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE, ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK FRONTS ATTEMPT TO BRIEFLY FLATTEN IT, INTRODUCING
MORE VERY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ON OCCASION, MAINLY IN
DEL NORTE COUNTY. CHANCES FOR A WETTING RAINFALL (0.1 INCH OR
HIGHER) ONLY REACH 25% TO 35% LATE NEXT WEEK AND INCREASE SOME
NEXT WEEKEND. THERE WILL PERIODS OF REBOUNDING HIGH TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN THE FRONTS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY. A CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL
FURTHER TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAINST THE RESTRENGTHENING
RIDGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE
AND WILL BE QUITE GUSTY MONDAY AFTERNOON IN PARTICULAR. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE WELL-MIXING THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE COAST. NBM HOLDS A HIGH CHANCE (60%-
80%) FOR MAXIMUM WIND GUST OF 30 MPH OR HIGHER MONDAY FOR AREAS
ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF INTERIOR DEL NORTE AND
HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE (40%-60%)
FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 35 MPH OVER SOME OF THE EXPOSED COASTAL
HEADLANDS AND OVER COASTAL DEL NORTE AND AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO.
WINDS WILL EASE SOME TUESDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. JJW
AVIATION...(08/06Z TAFS)
COASTAL STRATUS BLOSSOMED ALONG
THE NORTH COAST SATURDAY EVENING. IFR CEILINGS FROM 200-700 FEET
WERE REPORTED OVER THE COASTAL AERODROMES. MESOSCALE MODELS AS USUAL
WERE UNDERDONE AND TOO SLOW WITH THE STRATUS BLOOM. ALL THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATED NO STRATUS AT KCEC WHICH IS
CLEARLY WRONG BASED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE REPORTS. TWO
MODELS ARE REASONABLY CLOSE, THE NAMNEST AND ARW. THIS IS A KNOWN
DRY BIAS OF ALL MESOSCALE MODELS IN DECAYING OFFSHORE FLOW. TERMINAL
FORECASTS FOR KACV AND KCEC HAVE THEREFORE BEEN ADJUSTED TO MATCH
OBSERVATIONS AND CURRENT TRENDS. TRENDED THE FORECAST AFTER 12-18
HOURS TOWARD GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS STRATUS SCATTERING
OUT AND CLEARING BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, 18Z-21Z. MOS
TENDS TO UNDERESTIMATE THE PERSISTENCE OF THE STRATUS. A SECONDARY
PUSH OF STRATUS WILL LIKELY SURGE ONSHORE AFTER THE INITIAL LATE
MORNING IMPROVEMENT. MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE STRATUS REFORMING AND
EXPANDING AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN PUSHING INTO THE NORTH COAST
RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PAC NW. N
TO NW WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHALLOW
TURBULENCE AND/OR LLWS WILL BE A DISTINCT HAZARD FOR SMALL LIGHT
WEIGHT AIRCRAFT TRAVERSING THE COASTAL TERRAIN.
MARINE
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS STEEP NORTHERLY WAVES COMBINE WITH SHORT
PERIOD NW SWELL. GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES WILL PERSIST FOR WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG TO MODERATE BREEZES
WITH LARGE STEEP NORTHERLY WINDS WAVES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AS A THERMAL TROUGH
MEANDERS NEAR THE COAST. WIDESPREAD NORTHERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A FRONT. NEAR STORM FORCE WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY, NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF CAPE MENDOCINO. GALE
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF GALES.
LARGE STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD, REACHING 14 TO 17 FEET
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGHEST SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. OUR
LONG STRETCH OF STRONG AND PERSISTENTLY NORTHERLIES WILL FINALLY
ABATE AROUND MID WEEK, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDO. MODERATE
WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SOUTH OF CAPE MENDO. STEEP SEAS WILL BE
SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. A SERIES OF MID AND LONG PERIOD SWELL GROUPS
ALSO PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS MID TO LATE WEEK.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ450.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ455.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST TUESDAY
FOR PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ470.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
PZZ470.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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