323
FXUS66 KEKA 112029
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
129 PM PDT WED MAR 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
COASTAL DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY FOR HUMBOLDT
AND DEL NORTE. MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS LIKELY LATE THIS WEEKEND
AND NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
INTERIOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK
SYSTEM WILL CLIP THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE TO THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO NUDGE UPWARDS
SLIGHTLY, LOWERING THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD FROST. STILL, SOME AREAS
IN NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S.
A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE BUILDING OVER THE
REST THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK, CLIPPING FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY
WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAINFALL OR
DRIZZLE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR A 0.1 INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL ARE A LITTLE HIGHER FOR THIS SYSTEM FOR COASTAL DEL NORTE
(50-75%), BUT ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS MAY BE RECORDED ELSEWHERE.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GREATLY AMPLIFY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST VALLEYS IN
MENDOCINO AND SOUTHERN LAKE POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 90. BY SUNDAY, NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER 85 INCREASE TO AROUND 40%
FOR MENDOCINO AND WESTERN LAKE, AND OVER 70% FOR SOUTHERN LAKE. ON
MONDAY CHANCES INCREASE TO ABOVE 80% FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN MENDOCINO
AND LAKE COUNTIES. CHANCES FOR OVER 90 DEGREES ARE ABOUT 20% OUTSIDE
SOUTHERN LAKE, WHERE CHANCES ARE OVER 70%. ELSEWHERE, MOST INTERIOR
VALLEYS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S, WHILE COASTAL AREAS COULD
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION...(11/18Z TAFS)
VFR WITH OCCASIONAL CIRRUS CONTINUED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH WED. WINDS HAVE REMAINED MUCH LIGHTER AS WELL.
FRONTAL SYSTEM HEADED INTO THE PAC NW (NW OREGON) MAY INDUCE A
SHALLOW PUSH OF MOIST AIR ONTO THE NORTH COAST. CHANCE FOR COASTAL
STRATUS WITH CEILINGS < 1000 FT AGL INCREASES TO 20-40% FROM 12/03Z
TO 12/07Z AND THEN 30-60% AFTER 12/07Z. CHANCE FOR LOW VSBY < 3SM IS
MUCH LESS, AROUND 10-20%. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SE OVERNIGHT
AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS MAY HINDER OR DELAY IFR DEVELOPMENT TIL
EARLY THU WHEN ONSHORE BREEZES DEVELOP. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
SHORT TO MID PERIOD NW SWELL AROUND 7 TO 8 FT IS
FORECAST TO STEADILY SUBSIDE TONIGHT-FRI. LONG PERIOD SW SWELL
IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO 2 FT THU-FRI. OTHERWISE, STEEPER N-NW
WIND WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WAVE SPECTRUM AND POSE
THE GREATEST HAZARD TO SMALL VESSELS. WIND WAVES WILL BE BORDERLINE
FOR AN ADVISORY SOUTH OF CAPE MENDO TODAY-TONIGHT, NEAR 6 FT. NORTH
WIND GUSTS FROM 25-30KT ALSO APPEAR LOCALIZED DOWNWIND OF CAPE MENDO
AS WELL. NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP WIND WAVES SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT. COVERAGE OF SEAS AND WIND
GUSTS > 25 KT LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY FOR SMALL
CRAFT. OTHERWISE, LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS EXPECTED FOR THE
NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AS A STALLED OUT FRONT MEANDERS ABOUT
NORTH OF THE AREA, OVER NW OREGON. STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGHOUT THIS WEEKEND AS THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTS OUT THE NE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NW. WINDS
DO NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE WATCH, HOWEVER LOCAL
GALE GUSTS DOWNWIND OF CAPE MENDOCINO IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE WITH
THESE NORTHERLY WIND PATTERNS AND IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 5 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
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