004
FXUS66 KEKA 121009
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1137 PM PDT WED MAR 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
GENERALLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS WEEK. COASTAL
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY FOR HUMBOLDT, WITH SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL OVER DEL NORTE. MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL BEGIN LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
OCCASIONAL SHOTS DRIZZLE TO THE FAR NORTH COAST AND MAINLY DEL
NORTE COUNTY. WHILE QUICKLY WEAKENING, THE FRONT WILL SAG FARTHER
SOUTH LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. RECENT MODEL RUNS PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH OVER DEL NORTE. RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT, BUT NBM
NOW HOLDS A 60 TO 70 CHANCE FOR OVER 0.2 INCH TOTAL FOR DEL NORTE.
A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE BUILDING OVER THE
REST THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO GREATLY AMPLIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE
WARMEST VALLEYS IN MENDOCINO AND SOUTHERN LAKE, POSSIBLY EXCEEDING
90. BY SUNDAY, NBM PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER 85
INCREASE TO AROUND 40% FOR MENDOCINO AND WESTERN LAKE, AND OVER 70%
FOR SOUTHERN LAKE. ON MONDAY, CHANCES INCREASE TO ABOVE 80% FOR
ALL OF SOUTHERN MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES. CHANCES FOR OVER 90
DEGREES ARE 15 TO 20% FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS UKIAH AND
CLEARLAKE. PROBABILITIES FOR OVER 90 DEGREES ARE MUCH HIGHER (65
TO 75%) FOR FAR SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BRING SOME MINOR LEVEL HEATRISK, WITH PERHAPS
VERY LOCALIZED MODERATE LEVELS FOR FAR SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY. MOST
INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S, WHILE COASTAL
AREAS COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S
THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
AVIATION
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
IS BRINGING SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL AREAS. SOME DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING, BUT IT LOOKS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY
MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL SPREAD UP THE RIVER
VALLEYS AS WELL, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO UKI. THESE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT LATER THIS MORNING, BUT LOWER AGAIN IN THE
EVENING.
MARINE
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
HAS WEAKENED NORTHERLY WINDS. NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO THEY ARE
FAIRLY LIGHT AND THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL AREAS OF WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS. THESE REMAIN BREEZY SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO, HOWEVER THE
BUOYS SHOW THEM TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN EXPECTED. SO HAVE LOWERED
THE WIND DRIVE WAVES TO AROUND 4 TO 5 FEET AND LOWERED THE WINDS
SLIGHTLY AS WELL. CURRENTLY THERE IS ALSO A NORTHWEST SWELL MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS. IT IS AROUND 8 OR 9 FEET AT 13 SECONDS. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO
A SMALL LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS
ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SATURDAY A FINAL WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES BY THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AGAIN. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE WATERS. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 20 TO 25 KT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN START TO DIMINISH AGAIN
NEXT WEEK.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 5 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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