161
FXUS66 KEKA 122140
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
240 PM PDT THU MAR 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
GENERALLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS WEEK. COASTAL
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY FOR HUMBOLDT, WITH SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL OVER DEL NORTE. MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL BEGIN LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH
THE EXCEPTION POSSIBLY COMING OVERNIGHT TO DEL NORTE COUNTY WITH A
STANDING FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT
TOWARDS DEL NORTE, INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS BRINGING
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO ACCUMULATE. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER SOUTH
TOWARDS DEL NORTE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. RECENT MODEL RUNS
PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OVER DEL NORTE. RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT,
BUT NBM NOW HOLDS A 30-40% CHANCE FOR OVER 0.2 INCH TOTAL FOR DEL
NORTE.
A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE BUILDING OVER THE
REST THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO GREATLY AMPLIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE
WARMEST VALLEYS IN MENDOCINO AND SOUTHERN LAKE, POSSIBLY EXCEEDING
90. BY SUNDAY, NBM PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER 85
INCREASE TO AROUND 40% FOR MENDOCINO AND WESTERN LAKE, AND OVER 70%
FOR SOUTHERN LAKE. ON MONDAY, CHANCES INCREASE TO ABOVE 80% FOR
ALL OF SOUTHERN MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES. CHANCES FOR OVER 90
DEGREES ARE 15 TO 20% FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS UKIAH AND
CLEARLAKE. PROBABILITIES FOR OVER 90 DEGREES ARE MUCH HIGHER (65
TO 75%) FOR FAR SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BRING SOME MINOR LEVEL HEATRISK, WITH PERHAPS
VERY LOCALIZED MODERATE LEVELS FOR FAR SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY. MOST
INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S, WHILE COASTAL
AREAS COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S
THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)
LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY LIFTED AND SCATTERED
OUT OF THE AREA, BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. COASTAL STRATUS IS
LIKELY TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. SOME BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AND LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE TRINITY AND EEL RIVER VALLEYS MAY SEE CLOUDS
AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT OTHERWISE INTERIOR AREAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR.
JB
MARINE
NORTH WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AROUND AND SOUTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO, WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS LIKELY. CONDITIONS ARE
MILDER NORTH OF THE CAPE, WITH PEAK GUSTS POTENTIALLY NOT EVEN
REACHING 10 KTS. THE SEA STATE IS DOMINATED BY A MID PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL OF 6 TO 8 FT AT 12 SECONDS. THIS SWELL WILL BE
REINFORCED THROUGH FRIDAY AND BEGIN TO DECAY BY SATURDAY. STEEP
NORTHERLY WINDS WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS BY THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY, WINDS REMAIN BREEZY
SOUTH OF THE CAPE, BUT GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH NORTH OF THE CAPE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. JB
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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