197
FXUS66 KEKA 132102
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
202 PM PDT FRI MAR 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
COASTAL DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
FOR HUMBOLDT, WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL OVER DEL NORTE. MORE
SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL BEGIN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A FRONT IS APPROACHING NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT TOWARDS DEL NORTE COUNTY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE REGION AND PERHAPS BRING LIGHT RAIN TO DEL NORTE
COUNTY AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION VERY LATE TONIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO LATE SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY,
LOOKING AT NBM 24 HOUR PROBABILITIES OF OVER 0.1 INCHES
ACCUMULATION (5PM FRIDAY 3/13 TO 5PM SATURDAY 3/14): DEL NORTE
COUNTY HAS ABOUT AN 85 TO 95 PERCENT CHANCE; NORTHERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY HAS ABOUT A 50 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE WITH HIGHER CHANCES
ALONG THE COAST FROM ABOUT CAPE MENDOCINO AND NORTH. MORE RECENT
NBM RUNS EVEN HAVE ABOUT A 25 TO 45 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 0.5 INCHES
OR MORE FOR DEL NORTE COUNTY IN 24 HOURS OVER THE SAME TIME PERIOD
(5PM FRIDAY 3/13 TO 5PM SATURDAY 3/14).
GENERALLY, A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GREATLY AMPLIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
OF THE WARMEST VALLEYS IN MENDOCINO AND SOUTHERN LAKE POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS OF NOW, THE WARMEST
DAYS WILL MOST LIKELY BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL BRING SOME MINOR LEVEL HEATRISK, WITH PERHAPS VERY LOCALIZED
MODERATE LEVELS FOR FAR SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY. MOST INTERIOR
VALLEYS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S, WHILE COASTAL AREAS
COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S
THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT ALL
TERMINALS AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE RIVER VALLEYS HAVE LIFTED AND
SCATTERED. LOW CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, WITH DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AROUND ACV AND
CEC. LIFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY AND CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY TO LIFT AND SCATTER. SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD SEE STRATUS
AGAIN OVERNIGHT, BUT UKI IS LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR. JB
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AROUND AND SOUTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. STEEP WIND WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE WINDS. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA, WINDS REMAIN MILD WITH GENERALLY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. SEAS ARE DOMINATED BY A MID PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL AT AROUND 5 TO 7 FT AND A SMALL LONG PERIOD
SOUTHERLY SWELL. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND TURN SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY NORTH OF THE CAPE AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. NORTH WINDS SHARPLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS FRONT, BRINGING NEAR-GALE FORCE GUSTS TO THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND WIDESPREAD 20 TO 25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS. STEEP
WIND WAVES OF 5 TO 8 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WINDS. WINDS
EASE NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO SUNDAY, BUT REMAIN BREEZY AROUND AND
SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS EASE MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK. JB
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT
SUNDAY FOR PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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