062
FXUS66 KEKA 140830
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
130 AM PDT SAT MAR 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAINFALL/COASTAL DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON OVER DEL NORTE AND
NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL BEGIN
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO CLIP DEL NORTE AND
NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND
BRING LIGHT RAIN TO DEL NORTE COUNTY AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO
NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
MODERATE TO HEAVY DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. CURRENTLY, LOOKING AT NBM 24 HOUR
PROBABILITIES OF OVER 0.1 INCHES ACCUMULATION (11PM FRIDAY 3/13 TO
11PM SATURDAY 3/14): DEL NORTE COUNTY HAS ABOUT A 90 TO 95
PERCENT CHANCE; NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY HAS ABOUT A 65 TO 85
PERCENT CHANCE WITH HIGHER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST FROM ABOUT CAPE
MENDOCINO AND NORTH. MORE RECENT NBM RUNS EVEN HAVE ABOUT A 40 TO
60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 0.5 INCHES OR MORE FOR DEL NORTE COUNTY IN
24 HOURS OVER THE SAME TIME PERIOD (11PM FRIDAY 3/13 TO 11PM
SATURDAY 3/14).
GENERALLY, A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GREATLY AMPLIFY BY SUNDAY. NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST
VALLEYS IN SOUTHERN MENDOCINO AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS OF NOW, THE WARMEST
DAYS WILL MOST LIKELY BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL BRING SOME MINOR LEVEL HEATRISK, WITH PERHAPS VERY LOCALIZED
MODERATE LEVELS FOR FAR SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY. MOST INTERIOR
VALLEYS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S, WHILE COASTAL AREAS
COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S THROUGH
THAT PERIOD.
AVIATION
AN APPROACHING FRONT IS DRIVING THE WEATHER THIS
MORNING. THIS BROUGHT STRATUS TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND WELL UP THE
RIVER VALLEYS. THE FRONT IS APPROACHING AND MAY BRIEFLY LIFT THESE
CLOUDS UP TO MVFR CONDITIONS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TO
DEL NORTE COUNTY, BUT IT WILL RAPIDLY TAPER OFF FARTHER SOUTH. KACV
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN AND THIS MAY BRIEFLY
BRING CIGS AND VIS DOWN. AREAS FARTHER INLAND, INCLUDING UKI, ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF CEC
BY AROUND 17Z AND PAST ACV BY AROUND 22Z ACCORDING TO THE HREF. THIS
LOOKS IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS. TONIGHT CLEARING SKIES ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND DRY AIR MOVES
IN. MKK
MARINE
WINDS REMAIN CLOSE TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO THE WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND THERE
MAY BE SOME LOCAL AREAS OF WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS
REMAIN BREEZY SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. SATURDAY A FINAL WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES BY THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO
THE AGAIN. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT FIRST IN THE NORTHERN WATERS AND THEN IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THIS SLIGHTLY AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WINDS WILL PICK UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
THEN SPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS. A FEW GALE
FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF CAPE MENDOCINO AND POINT ST
GEORGE, BUT OTHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 25 KT
RANGE. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND DRIVEN WAVES, THERE ARE TWO SWELLS.
ONE FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET AT 11 SECONDS AND ONE FROM
THE SOUTH AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET AT 17 SECONDS. THESE ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 TO 15 KT, BUT REMAIN AROUND 15 TO 20 SOUTH OF THE
CAPE. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE
LIGHTEST WINDS OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH THURSDAY NOW LOOKS VERY
SIMILAR. MKK
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PDT
SUNDAY FOR PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM PDT
SUNDAY FOR PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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