159
FXUS66 KEKA 150710
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1210 AM PDT SUN MAR 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY LASTING THROUGH THE
WEEK. EXPECT UNSEASONABLE, VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF NW
CALIFORNIA WITH A CHANCE OF RECORD BREAKING HEAT FOR INLAND AREAS
OF MENDOCINO COUNTY TODAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
SIGNIFICANT WARMING BEGINS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
NEXT WEEK. RESIDUAL STRATUS REMAINS OVER THE EEL RIVER BASIN AS WELL
AS COASTAL AREAS FROM HUMBOLDT BAY UP THROUGH THE KLAMATH RIVER
MOUTH. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CLEARING OUT OVER THE CWA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED GROUPS OVER COASTAL HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE ARE
LIKELY TO RETURN BY SUNDAY EARLY EVENING.
A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
THIS WEEKEND AND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER WITH ITS OVER THE CA/NV/AZ
TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS INCREASINGLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GREATLY AMPLIFY TODAY,
INCREASING INTERIOR TEMPERATURES. MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THIS RIDGE
WILL BE CLOSE TO 3 STANDARD DEVISIONS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING WEEK, MAKE ITS STRONGER THAN
~99.7% OF THE RIDGES THAT USUALLY FLOW OVER WESTERN CONUS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE
WARMEST VALLEYS IN SOUTHERN MENDOCINO AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES.
THANKFULLY, IT IS STILL MID-MARCH SO THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE APPROACHING 90 DEGREES BY EARLY THIS COMING WEEK. AS OF
NOW, THE WARMEST DAYS WILL MOST LIKELY BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN
THE APEX OF RIDGE STRETCHES OVER NW CA BEFORE STALLING AND BUILDING
WITH ITS CENTER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY MID WEEK. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BRING SOME MINOR LEVEL HEATRISK, WITH PERHAPS VERY
LOCALIZED MODERATE LEVELS FOR FAR SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY. MOST
INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S, WHILE COASTAL
AREAS COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S
THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THE EPS AND GEFS IS SHOWING SOME RELIEF FROM
THIS HEAT NEXT WEEK DUE TO A POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE TROF FILLING INTO
THE PACNW AFTER THIS RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD.
AVIATION
A FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND THERE IS SOME
LINGERING STRATUS IN THE COASTAL AREAS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW HAS
CLEARED THIS OUT IN SOME AREAS, BUT MUCH OF THE HUMBOLDT COAST AND
VALLEYS CONTINUE TO SEE LIFR CIGS. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THESE WILL
CLEAR, BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS TOO WEAK
FOR THIS. THIS AFTERNOON VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ALONG THE COAST, BUT LIKELY LESS THAN 10
KT IN MOST AREAS. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. MKK
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS PEAKED SATURDAY EVENING AROUND 20 TO 25
KT. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING TO AROUND
10 TO 15 KT IN THE NORTH AND 15 TO 20 KT SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA AROUND PEAK
HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND DRIVEN WAVES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 6
TO 9 FEET AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WELL. THERE ARE ALSO
TWO SMALL SWELLS. ONE AROUND 3 FEET AT 11 SECONDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND ONE AROUND 2 FEET AT 15 SECONDS OUT OF THE SOUTH. BOTH
OF THESE ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AROUND
10 TO 20 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AND
ESPECIALLY JUST DOWNWIND OF THE CAPE. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 TO 15 KT WITH THE STRONGEST
WIND STILL JUST SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. ALSO ON TUESDAY A NORTHWEST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 4 T 6 FEET AT 14 SECONDS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A FEW OF THE
MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS, BUT IT IS FAIRLY MINIMAL
AT THIS POINT. MKK
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
PZZ455-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
VISIT US AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTPS://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTPS://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE THE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/EKA/ZONEMAP.PNG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page