193
FXUS66 KEKA 152159
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
259 PM PDT SUN MAR 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. INCREASING HEAT ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH
INTERIOR WIDESPREAD MINOR HEATRISK. EXPECT UNSEASONABLE, VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF NW CALIFORNIA WITH A CHANCE OF
RECORD BREAKING HEAT FOR INLAND AREAS OF MENDOCINO COUNTY.
DISCUSSION
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC BUILDING
INTO THE REGION IS PROMOTING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE-SEASONABLY
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA. DESPITE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE OBSERVED. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
RUNNING GENERALLY 5 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY'S
READING, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER-60S TO UPPER-70S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOPED AROUND THE HUMBOLDT BAY AND VICINITY.
RIDGING REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE WRN CONUS THROUGH LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TREND
PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 10-20F ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY, AND REMAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY. BY MID WEEK, THE HIGH PRESSURE "FLATTEN" AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL BRING SOME ONSHORE FLOW; HOWEVER, INTERIOR TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S INTO LOW 90S. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW REGIMEN (EASTERLY WINDS) IS ANTICIPATED TO SLIGHTLY
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, KEEPING THE AIR DRY AND
REINFORCE THE WARMING TREND. NBM PROBABILITY FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 90F AROUND UKIAH SHOWS A 40% ON TUESDAY, DIMINISHING TO
20-25% WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 50% ON
FRIDAY. EXPECT A WIDESPREAD MINOR HEATRISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
THE HEAT WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT THOSE WHO ARE EXTREMELY SENSITIVE
TO HEAT AND WITHOUT COOLING OR HYDRATION. EVEN THE COASTAL AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP TO MID 60S THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY BY MID
WEEK BEFORE SEAS BREEZES DEVELOP. HOWEVER
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND
SHIFT EASTWARD, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAIN HIGH IN CONTINUING DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN, BUT REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. /ZVS
AVIATION
AFTER THE EARLY MORNING PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD DECK
FILLING BACK IN AFTER A BRIEF SCATTERING OUT, WE HAVE VFR AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS WHICH COULD LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LOW LEVEL INVERSION DUE TO THE RESILIENT HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING PATTERN, RESULTING IN SHALLOW CLOUD COVERAGE LASTING
AS LONG AS THEY HAVE INTO THE AFTERNOON AT KCEC AND KACV. HREF HAS
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGHER CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT FILLING BACK IN BY
THE EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH AN EVEN LESS DENSE MID LEVEL SCATTERED
OR FEW GROUPINGS SHOWING UP THIS AFTERNOON BUT LIKELY TO NO EFFECT
AS FAR AS FLIGHT OPERATIONS GOES. MOS GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A FEW
HOURS OF LIFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR KACV. CALM WINDS AND LIGHT
CLOUD COVER COULD MAKE THIS HAPPEN. PROBABILITIES FOR LESS THAN 2
MILES OF VISIBILITY IS AROUND 20% FOR KACV AT 12-15Z WITH KCEC A BIT
HIGHER, AROUND 30% FOR VISIBILITY LESS THAN 2 MILES AROUND THE SAME
TIME. KUKI LIKELY TO HAVE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY. /EYS
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS BUILDING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE OUTER
WATERS, JUST BELOW CRITERIA IN THE NORTHERN WATERS FOR SMALL CRAFTS
AT 17-19KTS AT THE MOST AND ISOLATED TO AREAS OF OUR WESTERN MOST
PERIPHERY OF THE 60NM BOUNDARY-DIMINISHING SOON AFTER SUNSET. MOST
OF THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH GUSTY
WINDS ON LEEWARD SIDE OF CAPE MENDO SHOWING ISOLATED GUSTS NEARING
GALE FORCE AT 01-04Z. THIS NARROW EXPANSION FAN COVERS A STRIP JUST
OFF OF THE CAPE AND EXTENDS BEYOND THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
OUTER WATERS BEYOND 10NM. DUE TO THE LACK OF AREA COVERAGE IT DOES
NOT MEET GALE CRITERIA DESPITE 34-36KT VELOCITIES. WIND WAVES FROM
THE STOUT NORTHERLIES AT 5-6FT IN AS MANY SECONDS OF PERIOD, ALONG
WITH THE 20-26KT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFTS
AND SO A SC.Y HAS BEEN HOISTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING 13Z FOR THE
INNER WATERS AND LATE MONDAY NIGHT EARLY TUESDAY AT 06Z. A LONGER
PERIOD NW SWELL AROUND 5-6FT AT 11-13SECONDS ARRIVES TUESDAY BUT
DIMINISHES QUICKLY AS A LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL AROUND 2FT AT
16SECONDS FILLS IN WEDNESDAY. /EYS
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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