973
FXUS66 KEKA 160849
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
149 AM PDT MON MAR 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. INCREASING HEAT ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH INTERIOR
WIDESPREAD MINOR HEATRISK. EXPECT UNSEASONABLE, VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF NW CALIFORNIA WITH A CHANCE OF RECORD
BREAKING HEAT FOR INLAND AREAS OF MENDOCINO COUNTY.
DISCUSSION
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION PROMOTING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE-SEASONABLY
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA. DESPITE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING TO FACILITATE THE FORMATION OF LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AROUND THE HUMBOLDT BAY AND VICINITY.
THERE IS VERY HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT RIDGING WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, CONTINUING
TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TREND PATTERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 10-20F ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. BY MID WEEK, THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STALL OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL FORCE
OFFSHORE, EASTERLY WINDS THAT WILL REINFORCE THE ANOMALOUS TEMPS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NBM SHOWS THE PROBABILITY FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 90F AROUND UKIAH AT 50% ON TUESDAY,
DIMINISHING TO 20-25% WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN TO 50% ON FRIDAY. EVEN HIGHER PERCENTAGES ARE DISPLAYED FOR
SE LAKE COUNTY THROUGH THIS WEEK FOR TEMPERATURES OVER 90F. EXPECT
A WIDESPREAD MINOR HEATRISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE HEAT WILL
PRIMARILY IMPACT THOSE WHO ARE EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND
THOSE WITHOUT COOLING OR HYDRATION AVAILABLE. EVEN THE COASTAL
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP TO MID TO UPPER 60S THIS WEEK BEFORE
AFTERNOON SEAS BREEZES DEVELOP.
OVER THE WEEKEND, MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH IN A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DS
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE IN PLACE. THERE QUITE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE MAKING IT HARD
TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY STRATUS, BUT CURRENTLY NONE OF THE TAF SITES
ARE SHOWING ANY. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE KACV COULD SEE SOME FOG
TOWARDS MORNING, BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY BRIEF IF IT DOES
OCCUR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AT SOME
POINT IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING FLOW SHIFTS MORE ONSHORE AND
MODELS ARE SHOWING A RETURN OF STRATUS IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS.
TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN KCEC
FIRST AND IT MAY BE LATER IN THE EVENING AT KACV. UKI IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR. MKK
MARINE
MONDAY THE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AROUND
10 TO 20 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AND
ESPECIALLY JUST DOWNWIND OF THE CAPE. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL GUSTS
TO 30KT JUST DOWNWIND OF CAPE MENDOCINO. MONDAY A SOUTHERLY SWELL IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS. INITIALLY IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE AROUND 2 FEET AT 18 SECONDS. IT LOOKS IT MAY PEAK NEAR 3
FEET AT 16 SECONDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY A
NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 4 T 6 FEET AT 14
SECONDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 5
TO 15 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WIND STILL JUST SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE WINDS INCREASE TO GALES AND
MAY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. MKK
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
VISIT US AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTPS://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTPS://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE THE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/EKA/ZONEMAP.PNG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page