580
FXUS66 KEKA 162158
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
258 PM PDT MON MAR 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE-SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. INTERIOR WIDESPREAD
MINOR HEATRISK THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOLING GRADUALLY
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH REMAIN ABOVE-NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
A STRONG H5 RIDGE AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE ARE, WITH SOME
HIGH- LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING UP TO 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED WITH
YESTERDAY'S READING, EVEN ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST. COASTAL
STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND SCATTERED OUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON TUESDAY, ALLOWING TO ANOTHER SUNSHINE DAY.
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE-
SEASONABLY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS A REX BLOCK PATTERN PERSIST OVER THE WRN
CONUS. LOCALLY BREEZY ALL INLAND AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 TO 30
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NBM PROBABILITY FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 90F AROUND UKIAH NOW SHOWS A 55% CHANCE ON TUESDAY,
DIMINISHING TO 20-30% WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN TO 40% ON FRIDAY. MINOR HEATRISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HEAT WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT THOSE WHO
ARE EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND WITHOUT COOLING OR HYDRATION.
MEANWHILE, MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S; HOWEVER, THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS, WITH HIGH CLIMBING INTO THE
70S. CURRENTLY THERE IS A 45-70% CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL
AREAS EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY, INCREASING TO 70-95% ON
THURSDAY.
THE ANOMALOUS 500 MB RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
SHIFT SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SUGGEST A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING THE AREA THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN CONTINUING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A GRADUAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ON FRIDAY, THOUGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE- NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /ZVS
AVIATION
DUE TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGING HANGING OVER THE
PACNW, MOISTURE IS MOSTLY HEADED TOWARDS WA/OR AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BLOCKS. SOME MOISTURE IS MAKING ITS WAY
INTO OUR CWA WHICH COULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS THE
SHALLOW INVERSION SETTLES IN. DRIER WARMER AIR WILL HELP CLEAR
THINGS OUT DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL LIKELY HAPPEN BEFORE LATE
MORNING. A FEW HOURS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE AT KCEC TUESDAY MORNING
WITH 50% PROBABILITY OF CEILINGS LESS THAN 500FT AND ALMOST 40% FOR
KACV FOR THE SAME CATEGORY. VISIBILITY LESS THAN 3 MILES HAS A 40%
PROBABILITY FOR KACV AND ALMOST 60% FOR KCEC WHICH MOS GUIDANCE ALSO
IS SIGNALING IN A MORE SUBTLE WAY. KUKI LIKELY TO HAVE PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY. /EYS
MARINE
A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL HAS FILLED IN WITH 2FT WAVE
HEIGHTS AND 18 SECOND PERIOD. WINDS HAVE EASED BELOW 10KTS NEAR BUOY
46022 WITH GUSTS JUST AROUND 10KTS AT BUOY 46014 NEAR POINT ARENA.
IT LOOKS AS IF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SWELL MAY PEAK NEAR 3 FEET AT
16 SECONDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY A NORTHWEST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 4 T 6 FEET AT 14 SECONDS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH THE
STRONGEST WIND STILL JUST SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE WINDS INCREASE TO GALES AND
MAY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. MKK /EYS
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORDS (MARCH 17)
STATION/FORECAST/RECORD/DATE
-------/--------/------/----
KCEC 59 80 1939
KEKA 61 71 1939
KUKI *96 93 1914
----------------------------
*(POTENTIAL TIED OR BROKEN RECORD)
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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