716
FXUS66 KEKA 170833
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
133 AM PDT TUE MAR 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE-SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD MINOR HEATRISK FOR THE
INTERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL GRADUALLY THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, YET REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
A STRONG 500MB RIDGE AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. NIGHTTIME SATELLITES SHOW A
STRATUS CLOUD BANK OFF THE SHORE SLOWLY FLOWING TOWARDS THE AREA
INTO TUESDAY AS A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTH
COAST. COASTAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT AND SCATTERED OUT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY, ALLOWING TO ANOTHER SUNSHINE-FILLED
DAY.
QUIET, DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE-SEASONABLY TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. ALL
INLAND AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NBM
PROBABILITY FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 90F AROUND UKIAH NOW
SHOWS A 55% CHANCE ON TUESDAY, DIMINISHING TO 20-30% WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 40% ON FRIDAY. MINOR HEATRISK
ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HEAT WILL
PRIMARILY AFFECT THOSE WHO ARE EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND
WITHOUT COOLING OR HYDRATION.
MEANWHILE, MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S; HOWEVER, THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS, WITH HIGH CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.
CURRENTLY THERE IS A 45-70% CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL AREAS
EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY, INCREASING TO 70-95% ON THURSDAY.
THE ANOMALOUS 500 MB RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A
COLD FRONT TRAVERSING THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH FOR A CONTINUATION IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GRADUAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON
FRIDAY, THOUGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE- NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /ZVS
AVIATION
VERY DRY AIR OVER THE AREA ALONGSIDE WEAK WINDS HAVE
PROMOTED GENERALLY WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A VERY SHALLOW AND WEAK MARINE LAYER TO FORM IFR FOG ALONG THE COAST
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY ONLY AROUND 40%.
REGARDLESS OF ANY FOG FORMATION, VFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY RETURN
BY MID TUESDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR FOG WILL DECREASED TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS LIGHT WIND GRADUALLY TURNS MORE OFFSHORE. /JHW
MARINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
GENTLE TO MOSTLY CALM NORTH WINDS TUESDAY AND THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK WITH ONLY LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS TO AROUND 15 KTS IN THE LEE OF
CAPE MENDOCINO. CALMER WINDS WILL REMAIN AS LONG AS HIGH PRESSURE
COVERS THE AREA. AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN, STRONGER WINDS
WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND, WITH GALE CONDITIONS VERY LIKELY (80%
CHANCE) IN THE OUTER WATERS BY SUNDAY.
CALM WINDS WILL GENERALLY LIMIT ANY MEANINGFUL SHORT PERIOD SEAS
THROUGH THE WEEK. THAT SAID A MINOR, LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL AND
MODEST MID PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL COMBINE TO CREATE AT LEAST
SOME SEAS UP TO 6 FEET THROUGH MID WEEK. STEEPER SHORT PERIOD SEAS
WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH THE WIND. /JHW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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