161
FXUS66 KEKA 172157
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
257 PM PDT TUE MAR 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE-SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD MINOR HEATRISK FOR THE
INTERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL GRADUALLY THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, YET REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS BY MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
REGION, LEADING TO DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ABUNDANT CLEAR SKIES IS OBSERVED ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL STRATUS THAT REMAINS
PUSHING BACK AND FORWARD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. AS
RESULT, AFTERNOON COASTAL TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING UP TO 10
DEGREES COOLER COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY'S READING. MEANWHILE, THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER UP TO 2,000 FEET IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
LOW CLOUDS LAPPING THE COASTAL AREAS INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S WITH PATCHY FOG ALONG THE SHELTER VALLEYS, WHILE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE 500 MB BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY
IN THE 80S DEGREES, WITH HIGHS INTO LOW 90S IN THE WARMEST
INTERIOR. MINOR HEATRISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE HEAT WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT THOSE WHO ARE EXTREMELY
SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND WITHOUT COOLING OR HYDRATION. IF YOU PLAN TO
SEEK A RELIEF BY RECREATION IN AN AREA LAKE, RIVER, OR STREAM,
REMEMBER THAT IS STILL MARCH AND THE WATER IS COLD.
MEANWHILE, MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S; HOWEVER, THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS, WITH HIGH CLIMBING INTO THE
70S. THERE IS A 70-95% CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE EXCEEDING 70
DEGREES ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGEST A
COLD FRONT TRAVERSING THE AREA THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH IN CONTINUING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A GRADUAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON
FRIDAY, THOUGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE- NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED BY MID NEXT WEEK, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NW
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES MODELS AND WPC CLUSTER
GUIDANCES ARE SUGGESTING A BREAK-TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES OF THE
BLOCKING RIDGE BY MID NEXT WEEK INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NW AND SHIFTING OR "FLATTENING" THE
HIGH PRESSURE BY MID NEXT WEEK. THIS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE
SPECIFIC DETAILS AT THIS MOMENT. /ZVS
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AND WINDS WEAK. A SHALLOW COASTAL STRATUS LAYER
FORMED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING, AFFECTING COASTAL TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS CLEARED TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRATUS CONTINUING TO
DIMINISH, BUT STILL LURKING JUST OFF SHORE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR FOR TERMINALS THROUGHOUT NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA INTO
THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SHALLOW COASTAL STRATUS LAYER COULD FORM ALONG
THE COAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. /JLW
MARINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
GENTLE TO MOSTLY CALM NORTH WINDS TODAY AND THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK
WITH ONLY LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS TO AROUND 15 KTS IN THE LEE OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. CALMER WINDS WILL REMAIN AS LONG AS HIGH PRESSURE COVERS
THE AREA. AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN, STRONGER WINDS WILL
RETURN THIS WEEKEND, WITH GALE CONDITIONS VERY LIKELY (80% CHANCE)
IN THE OUTER WATERS BY SUNDAY.
CALM WINDS WILL GENERALLY LIMIT ANY MEANINGFUL SHORT PERIOD SEAS
THROUGH THE WEEK. THAT SAID A MINOR, LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL AND
MODEST MID PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL COMBINE TO CREATE AT LEAST
SOME SEAS UP TO 6 FEET THROUGH MID WEEK. STEEPER SHORT PERIOD SEAS
WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH THE WIND. /JHW
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORDS (MARCH 18)
STATION/FORECAST/RECORD/DATE
-------/--------/------/----
KCEC 61 78 1914
KEKA 61 73 1997
KUKI *91 92 1914
----------------------------
*(POTENTIAL TIED OR BROKEN RECORD)
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
NONE.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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