095
FXUS66 KEKA 180706
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1206 AM PDT WED MAR 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE-SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD MINOR HEATRISK FOR THE INTERIOR
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL GRADUALLY THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, YET REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INCREASES BY MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
REGION, LEADING TO DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER UP TO 1,500 FEET IS CURRENTLY SOCKED ALONG
THE COAST AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH PATCHY FOG
ALONG THE COASTAL VALLEYS, WHILE WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES EXIST OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE 500 MB BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DRY,
ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY AT THE EARLIEST. INLAND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S DEGREES,
WITH HIGHS INTO LOW 90S IN THE WARMEST PARTS OF THE INTERIOR IN
SOUTHERN LAKE AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES. MINOR HEATRISK ACROSS THE
INTERIOR IS EXPECTED, PRIMARILY IMPACTING THOSE WHO ARE EXTREMELY
SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND ARE WITHOUT COOLING OR HYDRATION. IF YOU PLAN
TO SEEK A RELIEF BY RECREATION IN AN AREA LAKE, RIVER, OR STREAM,
REMEMBER THAT IS STILL MARCH AND THE WATER IS COLD. FOR COASTAL
AREAS, MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH SUNNY AFTERNOONS. THURSDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE COAST, WITH A 25-50% CHANCE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURE EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES FOR CITIES AND TOWNS DIRECTLY ON
THE COAST (CRESCENT CITY, EUREKA, FORT BRAGG, ETC.).
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES MODELS AND WPC 500MB CLUSTERS SUGGEST A BREAKDOWN
OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, GIVING SPACE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERNS WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL COOLING
BEGIN ON FRIDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS NW CA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION (BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AT THE EARLIEST) AND
CONTINUING THE FORECASTED COOLING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HIGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE SPECIFIC DETAILS AT THIS MOMENT.
/ZVS/DS
AVIATION
A SHALLOW BUT THICK MARINE LAYER HAS BLANKETED THE COAST
OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE OF CLEARING AROUND SUNRISE, BUT THEY CURRENTLY GREATLY
UNDERESTIMATE CURRENT FOG, SO MODEL SPREAD MAY CURRENTLY BE
UNRELIABLE. REGARDLESS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY RETURN TO
THE COAST BY MID MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED FOR VFR
CONDITIONS ALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR. /JHW
MARINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
GENTLE TO MOSTLY CALM NORTH WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY LOCALLY
ENHANCED WINDS TO AROUND 15 KTS IN THE LEE OF CAPE MENDOCINO. CALMER
WINDS WILL REMAIN AS LONG AS HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA. AS HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN, STRONGER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN
FIRST TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY. STRONGER WINDS WILL RETURN THIS
WEEKEND, WITH GALE CONDITIONS VERY LIKELY (80% CHANCE) IN THE OUTER
WATERS BY SUNDAY.
CALM WINDS WILL GENERALLY LIMIT ANY MEANINGFUL SHORT PERIOD SEAS
THROUGH THE WEEK. THAT SAID A MINOR, LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL AND
MODEST MID PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL COMBINE TO CREATE AT LEAST
SOME SEAS UP TO 6 FEET THROUGH MID WEEK. STEEPER SHORT PERIOD SEAS
WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH THE WIND. /JHW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
NONE.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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