931
FXUS66 KEKA 292201
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
301 PM PDT WED APR 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. RAINSHOWERS
WITH INTERIOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
CONTINUES TO CAUSE SUBJECTIVELY "PLEASANT" WEATHER. WINDY AFTERNOONS
AFTER MORNING STRATUS IS FORECASTED FOR COASTAL AREAS WITH INTERIOR
AREAS TO HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHTLY BREEZY, VARIABLE WINDS WITH VALLEY
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 70-80F THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE COME
FRIDAY HOWEVER.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE OFF SOCAL BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD, AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE PACNW. THIS TROF WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES REMAIN AMPLE FOR RAINSHOWERS,
WITH VALUES BETWEEN 0.7-1.0". IN ADDITION TO MOISTURE, HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL DATA IS SHOWING CAPE DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. CAPE VALUES OF 250J/KG UP TO
1000J/KG ARE POSSIBLE. THE T-STORM POSSIBILITY LOOKS MORE LIKELY FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NBM SHOWING AROUND A 10-15% PROBABILITY OF
LIGHTNING DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS EACH
AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH NEW
MODEL RUNS. FOR AREAS THAT ARE NOT LIKELY TO GET THUNDERSTORMS, A
CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN (>0.10") IS POSSIBLE (20-30%) TO FALL EACH
AFTERNOON. THESE RAINSHOWERS CHANCES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
EACH MORNING, VALLEY FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS INCREASED
MOISTURE ENTERS THE AREA. @DS
AVIATION
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH VFR PREVAILING.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS
TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT, CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND EXPAND INTO THE NEAR COAST
RIVER VALLEYS. MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
OVER THE WATERS WILL MIX OUT THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH A
RETURN TO VFR AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT BY THE AFTERNOON FOR THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. INLAND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH VFR PRIMARILY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /RPA
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND SEAS
SPIKED BRIEFLY AT THE BUOYS TO AROUND 8 TO 9 FEET. SEAS HAVE SINCE
SUBSIDED SLIGHTLY, BUT ARE LIKELY STILL ELEVATED OVER THE OUTER
WATER ZONES. THUS, WITH GUSTY NORTHERLIES SOLIDLY IN SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA TO NEAR GALE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD AND BE VERY STEEP IN THE OUTER WATER
ZONES. CONSIDERING ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF GALE ARE EXPECTED OVER THAT
TIME, THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED AND A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED IN ITS PLACE, STARTING IMMEDIATELY THIS AFTERNOON.
SEAS WILL BE A LITTLE LESS STEEP NEAR THE COAST, ONLY EXCEEDING
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA, RESULTING IN ONLY THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THOSE WATERS. TO SIMPLIFY THE FORECAST, WITH THE
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING ISSUED INTO THE DAY SATURDAY, THE SMALL
CRAFTS FOR THE INNER WATER ZONES WERE ALSO EXTENDED TO SATURDAY AS
WELL DESPITE THAT BEING A LITTLE BEYOND OUR TYPICAL POLICY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DIVES DOWN TOWARD THE REGION, POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A
CUT-OFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /RPA
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450-455.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470-
475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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