196
FXUS66 KEKA 300724
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1224 AM PDT THU APR 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND WARM CONTINUES TODAY. INTERIOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE TODAY BRINGING
PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MANY INTERIOR
VALLEYS COULD REACH THE HIGH 70S TO LOW 80S. COASTAL TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY TO BE COOLER WITH MORNING STRATUS POTENTIALLY PERSISTING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS FROM THE MID TO HIGH 50S ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS.
THIS PATTERN CHANGES FRIDAY AS A TROUGH DIPS DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, BRINGING
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS VALUES OF 0.7-1.0". INTERIOR RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPE OF AROUND 500
J/KG MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY TO NORTHERN TRINITY
AND AROUND SISKIYOU COUNTY, THOUGH DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD STUNT
THUNDERSTORM GROWTH. CONDITIONS SATURDAY ARE SIMILAR, IF NOT
SLIGHTLY BETTER FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH SLIGHTLY MORE
MOISTURE ALOFT AND MORE INSTABILITY. CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE
LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD AND BRINGS MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. CAPE OF
AROUND 500 TO 750 J/KG WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR, INCLUDING IN TRINITY,
INTERIOR DEL NORTE, INTERIOR HUMBOLDT, EASTERN MENDOCINO, AND
NORTHERN LAKE. AMPLE MOISTURE WITH HIGH PWATS DOES PRESENT A LOW-END
FLASH FLOOD RISK SHOULD TRAINING STORMS DEVELOP, THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS POINT. BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KTS COULD SUPPORT A
FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORM CELLS BRINGING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HAIL,
AND STRONG WINDS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED SHOULD THIS TREND
CONTINUE. GENERALLY EAST FLOW ALOFT IS LIKELY TO BRING THESE
INTERIOR SHOWERS TO THE COAST BY THE EVENING. THUNDER MAY EVEN BE
HEARD AT THE COAST! WETTING RAIN (>0.1") CHANCES ARE AROUND 50-60%
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE SOUTHERN MENDOCINO AND SOUTHERN LAKE
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. NBM ACTUALLY HAS LOW END CHANCES (20%) OF OVER AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS OF DEL NORTE AND THE KING RANGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS TAPER OFF AS RIDGING LIKELY
RETURNS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. JB
AVIATION...06Z TAFS
IN A VERY SIMILAR SETUP THAT OCCURRED OVER THE
PREVIOUS 24 HOURS, STRATUS HAS EXPANDED FROM HUMBOLDT BAY AND INTO
THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FROM A COASTAL EDDY
WILL ALSO EMBED STRATUS UP THE DEL NORTE COAST INTO CEC. UNLIKE LAST
NIGHT, A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BRING HIGHER
PROBABILITIES (50 TO 70%) OF LOWERING TO IFR LEVELS AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY. MOSS GUIDANCE IS INTRODUCING A CHANCE FOR A MORE BRIEFER
PERIOD OF LIFR NEAR 14Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH (20-30%). MOSS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO LOW WITH CIGS RECENTLY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS FORECAST.
WINDS MAY BE LIGHTER AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY WHERE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND MOISTURE POOLING LOOKS TO LOCK IN THE STRATUS LONGER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. IF CIGS DO MANAGE TO LOWER TO IFR HEIGHTS, IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR OR VFR WOULD BE EXPECTED AFTER 20Z.
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRENGTHENED OVER THE
WATERS, ALONG WITH STEEP SEAS. STEEP SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT ARE PULSING
INTO THE INNERS AS WELL. NEAR GALE TO GALE CONDITIONS WILL
PERIODICALLY DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GALE
STRENGTH GUSTS WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT AROUND AND SOUTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNINGS REMAIN OVER THE OUTER ZONES TO
COVER THE PERIODS OF GALES AND LARGE, STEEP SEAS. CONDITIONS
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE INNER ZONES FOR WINDS
UP TO 21 KTS AND PERIODS OF STEEP SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY, AND THE NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BEGIN AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS AND SMALLER SEAS WHICH MAY CARRY INTO NEXT
WEEK. AN UP TO 21 SECOND SMALL, LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL
BEGIN FILLING IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SWELL IS FORECAST TO PEAK
SUNDAY AT 4 TO 7 FT AT 17 SECONDS.
BEACH HAZARDS
ON SUNDAY, A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL OF AROUND
3 TO 6 FT AT 16 SECONDS WILL ARRIVE. THIS SWELL WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AS IT MAY POSE A MODERATE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES TO THE AREA.
SHOULD THIS SWELL CONTINUE AS MODELED, A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT MAY
BE NEEDED. SNEAKER WAVES ARE RELATIVELY LARGE, UNEXPECTED WAVES THAT
CAN SWEEP ACROSS THE BEACH WITHOUT WARNING. THERE MAY BE 30 MINUTES
OF SMALLER WAVES BEFORE A SNEAKER WAVE ARRIVES. AVOID STEEP BEACHES
AND JETTIES AND STAY MUCH FARTHER BACK FROM THE OCEAN. NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN! JB
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450-455.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470-
475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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