615
FXUS66 KEKA 010707
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1207 AM PDT FRI MAY 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES COOL
THIS WEEKEND. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS WITH BROADER AND STRONGER STORM
POTENTIAL SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
-WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A WEAK
MARINE LAYER NEAR SHORE
-ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (10-15% CHANCE) OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
-SCATTERED AND POSSIBLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS (15-25% CHANCE) OVER
THE THE INTERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME STORMS PUSHING CLOSER TO
SHORE.
DISCUSSION
A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND WILL BRING SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. INCREASED
MARINE INFLUENCE AND CLOUD COVER WILL SLIGHTLY COOL INTERIOR
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S BY SATURDAY. LOWER
PRESSURE WILL HELP LIFT THE MARINE LAYER ONSHORE, THOUGH MOST MODELS
SHOW AT LEAST SOME MARINE STRATUS STICKING AROUND.
THE GREATEST IMPACT OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON, DAYTIME
CAPE VALUES WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH 1000 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR. PRECIPITABLE WATER, HOWEVER, WILL BE VERY MARGINAL
GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.6 AND 0.8 INCHES. SUCH FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO
CREATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (10 TO 15% CHANCE) OVER THE INTERIOR.
CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST AND FAR EASTERN TRINITY, MENDOCINO, AND
LAKE COUNTIES ALONG THE RIM OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. VERY SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY, BUT WITH A SHIFT NORTHWARDS
TOWARDS INTERIOR DEL NORTE, INTERIOR HUMBOLDT, AND TRINITY COUNTIES.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MORPH INTO A CUTOFF LOW AND TRAVEL DOWN ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TROPICAL AIR WRAPPING UP THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY WILL BRING MUCH MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.2 INCHES. COMBINED WITH INCREASING WIND
SHEAR AND STILL SOLID CAPE, THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MUCH GREATER ON SUNDAY. STORM CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR ARE AROUND
25% WITH GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO PUSH EAST TO WEST INTO THE
COAST (10 TO 15% CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE
COAST). SOME OF THE STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR HOLD THE POTENTIAL TO
BE SEVERE WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND ISOLATED DAMAGING HAIL.
STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE WET, SO MUCH SO THAT NBM CURRENTLY
PLACES A 0.1 TO 0.3 INCHES OF RAIN ALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
STORMS WILL LIKELY LEAVE BEHIND COOLER AND CLOUDIER CONDITIONS FOR
NEXT MONDAY, THOUGH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY LIMIT ANY
OVERNIGHT FROST OR FREEZE CONCERNS. GENERALLY CALM AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY BUILD MID WEEK. ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT
RIDGING WEAKENING LATER NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION...06Z TAFS
WINDS ARE LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD COASTAL DRIZZLE FORECAST. CEILINGS OF MVFR TO IFR
DEVELOPED THURSDAY EVENING, AND HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY TO TREND TO
MORE SOLIDLY IFR, PARTICULARLY NORTH OVER CEC. CEILINGS HAVE A
HIGHER PROBABILITY TO REMAIN LOWER OVER CEC WITH FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE
AND PERIODS OF LIFR (55% CHANCE). ACV HAS HIGHER CHANCES FOR IFR
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS (60% CHANCE), WITH A CHANCE FOR THE LIGHT
DRIZZLE CONDITIONS TO BRING LIFR CEILINGS (30% CHANCE). LIKE
THURSDAY, LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW/MOISTURE POOLING WILL HOLD THE STRATUS
AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND ACV AND LIKELY NORTH THROUGH CEC. INCREASING
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INHIBIT DIURNAL MIXING, FURTHER
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THE STRATUS TO BE MORE PERSISTENT FRIDAY.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS PROBABLE BASED ON STATISTICAL GUIDANCE, BUT
HREF HAS RELATIVELY HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR IFR TO HOLD LONGER. THIS
CAN OCCUR WITH SOLID COVERAGE OF HIGHER CLOUDS ABOVE THE STRATUS.
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRENGTHENED OVER THE
WATERS, ALONG WITH STEEP SEAS. STEEP SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT ARE PULSING
INTO THE INNERS AS WELL. NEAR GALE TO GALE CONDITIONS WILL
PERIODICALLY DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GALE
STRENGTH GUSTS WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT AROUND AND SOUTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNINGS REMAIN OVER THE OUTER ZONES TO
COVER THE PERIODS OF GALES AND LARGE, STEEP SEAS. CONDITIONS
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE INNER ZONES FOR WINDS
UP TO 21 KTS OF STEEP SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY, AND THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BEGIN AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF LIGHTER WINDS AND SMALLER SEAS WHICH IS LIKELY TO CARRY INTO NEXT
WEEK. AN UP TO 21 SECOND SMALL, LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL
BEGIN FILLING IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SWELL IS FORECAST TO PEAK
LATE SUNDAY AT 4 TO 7 FT AT 16 SECONDS.
BEACH HAZARDS
ON SUNDAY, A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WITH
PERIODS BETWEEN 16-19 SECONDS WILL ARRIVE. THIS SWELL CONTINUES TO
BE MONITORED AS IT MAY POSE A MODERATE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES FOR
COASTAL AREAS. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING. SNEAKER WAVES ARE
ANOMALOUSLY LARGE, UNEXPECTED WAVES THAT SWEEP ACROSS BEACHES
WITHOUT WARNING. THERE CAN BE UP TO 30 MINUTES OF SMALLER WAVES
BEFORE A SNEAKER WAVE ARRIVES TO THE SHORELINE. CHOOSE YOUR
RECREATION WISELY BY AVOIDING STEEP BEACHES AND JETTIES AS WELL AS
STAYING MUCH FARTHER BACK FROM THE OCEAN THAN NORMAL. NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN! JB
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR CAZ101-103-104-109.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450-455.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470-
475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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