023
FXUS66 KEKA 012242
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
342 PM PDT FRI MAY 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE HAS HELPED LIFT THE MARINE LAYER CLOSE TO
SHORE THOUGH STRATUS HAS STAYED PERSISTENT. MARINE INFLUENCE WILL
PUSH MORE ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF
STORMS ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
-ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (10-15% CHANCE) OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
-SCATTERED AND SOME ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS (15-25% CHANCE)
OVER THE THE INTERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME STORMS PUSHING
CLOSER TO SHORE.
DISCUSSION
A WEAK SHORTWAVE HAS APPROACHED THE AREA TODAY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOMEWHAT MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE INTERIOR HAS REMAINED HOT TODAY, MARINE INFLUENCE AND
CLOUD COVER LIFTED INTO THE INTERIOR WILL SLIGHTLY COOL INTERIOR
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S BY SATURDAY. LOWER
PRESSURE WILL HELP LIFT THE MARINE LAYER ONSHORE, THOUGH MOST MODELS
SHOW AT LEAST SOME MARINE STRATUS STICKING AROUND ALONG THE SHORE.
THE GREATEST IMPACT OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. THIS AFTERNOON, DAYTIME CAPE VALUES
HAVE NEARED 1000 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. PRECIPITABLE WATER,
HOWEVER, IS MARGINAL GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.8 INCHES. SUCH
MARGINAL MOISTURE HAS SO FAR MADE FOR LITTLE MORE THAN SCATTERED
CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS A
SLIGHT CHANCE (10%) OF SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING.
CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST FOR FAR EASTERN TRINITY, MENDOCINO, AND
LAKE COUNTIES ALONG THE RIM OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. VERY SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY, THOUGH MOST CONVECTIVE MODELS SHOW
A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN THUNDER CHANCES (GENERALLY LESS THAN 15%).
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MORPH INTO A CUTOFF LOW AND TRAVEL DOWN ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TROPICAL AIR WRAPPING
UP THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WILL BRING MUCH MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.2 INCHES. COMBINED WITH INCREASING
WIND SHEAR AND STILL SOLID CAPE, THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MUCH GREATER ON SUNDAY. STORM CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR ARE
AROUND 25% WITH GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO PUSH EAST TO WEST
INTO THE COAST (10 TO 15% CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE HUMBOLDT AND
DEL NORTE COAST). SOME OF THE STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR HOLD THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING HAIL. STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE WET, SO MUCH SO THAT NBM
CURRENTLY PLACES A 0.1 TO 0.3 INCHES OF RAIN ALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
STORMS WILL LIKELY LEAVE BEHIND COOLER AND CLOUDIER CONDITIONS FOR
NEXT MONDAY, THOUGH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY LIMIT ANY
FROST OR FREEZE CONCERNS. GENERALLY CALM AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL
MOST LIKELY BUILD FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. /JHW
AVIATION
COASTAL STRATUS CONTINUES ALONG THE NORTH COAST TODAY.
MVFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH TEMPO IFR CATEGORIES
EXPECTED. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR KCEC WITH VARIABLE WINDS
AT KACV. TONIGHT, A SURGE OF DRIZZLE IS FORECASTED, YET MINOR
IMPACTS TO VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED. WHILE THERE IS VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS (<10%), MODELS SHOW STRATUS REMAINING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. INLAND, VFR IS EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS, ESPECIALLY NEAR RIDGETOPS AND POSSIBLY
MIXING DOWN INTO N-S ORIENTATED VALLEYS.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR INTERACTING WITH A
SKINNY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NE PACIFIC IS REINFORCING THE
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS
SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP IS RESULTING IN CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE WATERS AS WELL AS LARGE, STEEP SEAS. WHILE THE LARGEST WAVES (UP
TO SIG. HEIGHTS OF 13-15FT) ARE MODELED FOR THE OUTER WATERS, STEEP
SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT ARE PROPAGATING INTO THE INNERS. NEAR-GALE
CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND SATURDAY. GALE STRENGTH GUSTS WILL BE
MORE PERSISTENT AROUND AND SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO, YET COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW TO WARRANT A WIDESPREAD GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNINGS PERSIST OVER THE OUTER ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE PERIODS OF LIGHT GALES, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY, THE
CONTINUED LARGE, STEEP SEAS. AFTER THESE WARNINGS EXPIRE, EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS. CONDITIONS
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFTS ARE BEING OBSERVED FOR THE INNER ZONES DUE
CONTINUED MODERATELY BREEZY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS.
SATURDAY EVENING, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE PACNW
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA, ALLOWING THE NORTHERLY WINDS TO WEAKEN DOWN
TO GENTLE BREEZY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BEGIN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
LIGHTER WINDS AND SMALLER SEAS WHICH MAY CARRY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS GLOBAL WATER SHOWS A LONG PERIOD SWELL FILLING INTO THE WATERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS IT ARRIVES, THE SWELL IS FORECASTED TO BE
AROUND 2FT@20S BEFORE BUILDING UP TO 6FT@15S BY SUNDAY EVENING.
BEACH HAZARDS
ON SUNDAY, A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WITH
PERIODS BETWEEN 16-19 SECONDS WILL ARRIVE. THIS SWELL CONTINUES TO
BE MONITORED AS IT MAY POSE A MODERATE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES FOR
COASTAL AREAS. SHOULD THIS SWELL CONTINUE AS MODELED, A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT IS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT TO BE HOISTED. SNEAKER WAVES ARE
ANOMALOUSLY LARGE, UNEXPECTED WAVES THAT SWEEP ACROSS BEACHES
WITHOUT WARNING. THERE CAN BE UP TO 30 MINUTES OF SMALLER WAVES
BEFORE A SNEAKER WAVE ARRIVES TO THE SHORELINE. CHOOSE YOUR
RECREATION WISELY BY AVOIDING STEEP BEACHES AND JETTIES AS WELL AS
STAYING MUCH FARTHER BACK FROM THE OCEAN THAN NORMAL. NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN! DS
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR CAZ101-103-104-109.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450-455.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470-
475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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