405
FXUS66 KEKA 030716
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1216 AM PDT SUN MAY 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND BRING STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL. LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
-SCATTERED AND SOME ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS (15-25% CHANCE)
OVER THE THE INTERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME STORMS PUSHING
CLOSER TO THE COAST.
-LINGERING SHOWERS, CLOUDS, AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY WARMER AND GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO
BRING MOISTURE AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK TODAY AS THE LOW PULLS TROPICAL MOISTURE UP THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER OF AROUND AN INCH OR HIGHER
ALONG WITH HIGH INSTABILITY (CAPE OF UP TO 1000 J/KG) WILL BRING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST THUNDER CHANCES ARE IN
INTERIOR HUMBOLDT, INTERIOR DEL NORTE, AND TRINITY COUNTIES. THE
YOLLA BOLLY'S, EASTERN MENDOCINO, AND NORTHERN LAKE ARE LIKELY TO
SEE SOME ACTIVITY AS WELL. STORM POTENTIAL WILL PEAK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, STRONG WINDS UP TO 50 MPH, AND
DAMAGING HAIL. RAINFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
OVER A HALF INCH IN AREAS OF DEL NORTE. THERE ARE LOW, BUT NONZERO
CHANCES, FOR SOME AREAS TO SEE OVER AN INCH, ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN HUMBOLDT, DEL NORTE, AND NORTHERN TRINITY, SHOULD
STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP. SHOULD TRAINING CELLS DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
OVER A BURN SCAR, FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE.
EASTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL HELP PUSH ANY STORMS CLOSER TO SHORE,
THOUGH ANY STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE TO THE WEST OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN. THE DEEP AND PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER NEAR THE COAST
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME DISRUPTION MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE WITH EAST FLOW AND REMNANT THUNDERSTORMS, BUT ANY EROSION
IS LIKELY TO REBUILD BY THE EVENING.
SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW, WHICH WILL BE
OVER THE CENTRAL CA COAST, HAS MOVED SOUTH SOMEWHAT. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL ALSO DRIFT SOUTH INTO TRINITY, MENDOCINO, AND LAKE COUNTY.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR,
MAINLY IN NORTHERN TRINITY COUNTY. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE MUCH LOWER THAN TODAY AT ONLY AROUND A 10-15% CHANCE. COLDER AIR
BEING PULLED FROM THE NORTHEAST AIDED BY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
BRIEFLY COOL INTERIOR TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S TUESDAY. CLOUDS AND
VALLEY MOISTURE WILL LIMIT ANY OVERNIGHT FROST CONCERNS. THE EAST
WIND WILL LIKELY HELP ERODE AND SHALLOW THE MARINE LAYER, BUT MOST
MODELS SHOW STRATUS PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK. BENIGN AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD LATE IN THE WEEK, BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUT OTHERWISE DRY, SEASONABLE, AND
CALM WEATHER.
AVIATION
A RETURN OF COASTAL STRATUS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
STRETCHING THE LENGTH OF THE WEST COAST. DISSIPATION STARTED AT DEL
NORTE AND CONSEQUENTLY KCEC BY SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON WHILE KACV
REMAINED OVERCAST INTO SATURDAY LATE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE
MARINE LAYER LIFTING FOR A SHORT SPELL AT KCEC LATE SATURDAY
EVENING, MVFR/VFR WILL CONTINUES UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY (87%) OF CLOUD BASE LESS THAN 500FT
WHICH WILL PUT FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN LIFR. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR
KACV WITH ALMOST 50% PROBABILITY OF LESS THAN 500FT CLOUD BASE AND
NEAR 75% PROBABILITY OF LESS THAN 1000FT. STRATUS COULD BRING
VISIBILITY DOWN AS WELL WITH NBM SUGGESTING LESS THAN A MILE OF
VISIBILITY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AT KACV AND MUCH LONGER AT KCEC,
POSSIBLY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. KUKI COULD GET A SOUTHERLY PUSH OF
STRATUS UP THROUGH CLOVERDALE AND HOPLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
LOWERING FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO LIFR FOR A FEW HOURS AS IT DID IN THE
PREVIOUS MORNING. /EYS
MARINE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, A COLD AIR MASS WILL
APPROACH THE WESTERN SEABOARD, THIS COLD AIR WILL DISRUPT THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWING THE NORTHERLY WINDS TO WEAKEN
DOWN TO GENTLE BREEZY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BEGIN AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF LIGHTER WINDS AND SMALLER SEAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
WEEK, THE GFS WAVE MODEL SHOWS TWO MAIN SWELLS IMPACTING THE COASTAL
WATERS, THE FIRST IS A LONG PERIOD, WESTERLY SWELL BUILDING UP TO
6FT@15S AND ANOTHER IS A NW SWELL OF 4FT@8S. MINIMAL IMPACT IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK FROM FRESH, SHORT PERIOD WAVES.
BEACH HAZARDS
THIS MORNING, A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WITH
PERIODS BETWEEN 17-20 SECONDS WILL ARRIVE. THIS SWELL CONTINUES
TO BE MONITORED AS IT MAY POSE A MODERATE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES
FOR COASTAL AREAS. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE COAST SUNDAY. SNEAKER WAVES ARE ANOMALOUSLY LARGE, UNEXPECTED
WAVES THAT SWEEP ACROSS BEACHES WITHOUT WARNING. THERE CAN BE UP
TO 30 MINUTES OF SMALLER WAVES BEFORE A SNEAKER WAVE ARRIVES TO
THE SHORELINE. CHOOSE YOUR RECREATION WISELY BY AVOIDING STEEP
BEACHES AND JETTIES AS WELL AS STAYING MUCH FARTHER BACK FROM THE
OCEAN THAN NORMAL. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CAZ101-103-
104-109.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
NONE.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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