420
FXUS66 KEKA 032200
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
300 PM PDT SUN MAY 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
SOME WEAKER STORMS MAY LINGER ON MONDAY UNDER GENERALLY COOL AND
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS BUILD MIDWEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
-SCATTERED AND SOME ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS (15-25% CHANCE)
OVER THE THE INTERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
-COOLER AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS MONDAY FOLLOWED BY WARMER AND GENERALLY
CALM CONDITIONS BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BUILT ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS FORECAST. A PARTICULARLY STRONG STORM PRODUCED AND
ESTIMATED 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN AND 0.5 INCH HAIL. A CUTOFF LOW
OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND SUPPORT
MODERATE INSTABILITY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. EASTERLY WIND WILL PUSH
ANY STORMS THAT FORM OVER INTERIOR MOUNTAINS TOWARDS THE COAST. AT
THE SAME TIME, BROAD COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS HAS GENERALLY REDUCED
SURFACE HEATING AND MIGHT LIMIT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE. DESPITE THE
INSTABILITY, A STUBBORN ALBEIT VERY LIFTED MARINE LAYER HAS
MAINTAINED GREY SKIES ALL ALONG SHORE.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PEAK
BETWEEN 3 PM AND 8 PM. CHANCES REMAIN GREATEST (25% CHANCE) IN
HUMBOLDT, TRINITY, AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES WITH LITTLE CHANCE (< 10%
CHANCE) IN MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES. THOUGH STORM COVERAGE MAY BE
SCATTERED, ONLY A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE MUCH CHANCE OF
APPROACHING SEVERE CONDITIONS. THAT SAID, ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO GENERATE GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY RETURN BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THAT
SAID, THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT (10%) CHANCE OF SOME WEAK LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY. COLDER AIR BEING PULLED
FROM THE NORTHEAST AIDED BY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL BRIEFLY COOL
INTERIOR TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S MONDAY. CLOUDS AND VALLEY
MOISTURE WILL LIMIT ANY FROST CONCERNS. THE EAST WIND WILL LIKELY
HELP ERODE AND SHALLOW THE MARINE LAYER, BUT MOST MODELS SHOW
STRATUS PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK.
BENIGN AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD LATE IN THE WEEK, BRINGING
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUT OTHERWISE DRY,
SEASONABLE, AND CALM WEATHER. THERE IS CHANCE FOR MARINE LAYER
CLEARING OUT AROUND WEDNESDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING LATER IN THE WEEK AS
A MARINE INVERSION REFORMS UNDER THE INTERIOR HEAT. /JHW
AVIATION
CEILINGS REMAIN STEADY ALONG THE NORTH COAST TODAY.
ABOVE THIS MARITIME CLOUD DECK, CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. THIS
INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORMS PASSING OVER COASTAL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED TO
BE ABOVE THE STUBBORN STRATUS ALONG THE COASTLINE. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND TOMORROW MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER FUNNELS MOISTURE OVER NW CA. SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE FOR THE
COAST AS GUSTY WINDS EXIST INLAND. EXPECTED LIFR-IFR FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS AND MVFR-VFR FOR INLAND TERMINALS.
MARINE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, A COLD AIR MASS ENTERED
THE WESTERN SEABOARD, THIS COLD AIR WILL DISRUPT THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWING THE NORTHERLY WINDS TO WEAKEN DOWN TO
GENTLE BREEZY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BEGIN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
LIGHTER WINDS AND SMALLER SEAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE WEEK,
THE GFS WAVE MODEL SHOWS TWO MAIN SWELLS IMPACTING THE COASTAL
WATERS, THE FIRST IS A LONG PERIOD, WESTERLY SWELL BUILDING UP TO
6FT@15S AND ANOTHER IS A NW SWELL OF 4FT@8S. MINIMAL IMPACT IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK FROM FRESH, SHORT PERIOD WAVES.
BEACH HAZARDS
THIS MORNING, A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WITH
PERIODS BETWEEN 17-20 SECONDS ARRIVED, POSING A MODERATE INCREASE TO
THE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES FOR COASTAL AREAS. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DEL NORTE, HUMBOLDT, AND MENDOCINO
COAST SUNDAY. SNEAKER WAVES ARE ANOMALOUSLY LARGE, UNEXPECTED WAVES
THAT SWEEP ACROSS BEACHES WITHOUT WARNING. THERE CAN BE UP TO 30
MINUTES OF SMALLER WAVES BEFORE A SNEAKER WAVE ARRIVES TO THE
SHORELINE. CHOOSE YOUR RECREATION WISELY BY AVOIDING STEEP BEACHES
AND JETTIES AS WELL AS STAYING MUCH FARTHER BACK FROM THE OCEAN THAN
NORMAL. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
CAZ101-103-104-109.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
NONE.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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