277
FXUS66 KEKA 142221
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
321 PM PDT THU MAY 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY NORTH WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OTHERWISE MILD
AND SUNNY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN WITH WARMER CONDITIONS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
-STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD EVERY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG SHORE AND OVER HIGH PEAKS IN THE INTERIOR. PEAK GUSTS FRIDAY
NEAR 30 KTS AND PEAK GUSTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NEAR 40 KTS.
-GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS EVEN ALONG SHORE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND WARMING THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
A WEAK AND BROAD SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
AREA. THIS HAS HELPED LIFT OUT THE MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST,
THOUGH SOME BROKEN STRATUS REMAINS ALONG SHORE AND WILL EXPAND
DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS, ESPECIALLY INTO MORE SHELTERED AREAS
SUCH AS HUMBOLDT BAY. OVERALL LOW PRESSURE HAS PUSHED MARINE
INFLUENCE FAR INLAND, KEEPING EVEN INTERIOR AREAS THAT ARE CLOSER TO
THE COAST COOLER IN THE MID 70S. ONLY IN EASTERN MENDOCINO, LAKE,
AND TRINITY COUNTIES HAVE INTERIOR VALLEYS MANAGED TO REACH ONLY
MODERATELY WARM HIGHS OF THE MID 80S FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE IS ALREADY HELPING
TO GENERATE MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25 KTS ALONG
SHORE. THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND
ALIGN ALONG SHORE INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD BUT STALL OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BRING UNUSUALLY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG SHORE AND ACROSS MOST OF
THE INTERIOR. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST NEAR 30 MPH IN EXPOSED AREAS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH 40 MPH GUSTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE STUBBORNLY CONSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH
GUSTS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS OR DAMAGE. THE WIND WILL PULL MARINE INFLUENCE
FAR INLAND AND KEEP LOW LEVELS WELL MIXED, GENERALLY LIMITING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE MID 60S AND 70S. COASTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
COOL DESPITE WINDS KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.
LONG TERM
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN RESPONSE WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY NEAR
SHORE ON SUNDAY, THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO LAKE COUNTY WITH
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AT HIGH ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE RIM OF THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME, NORTH WINDS SUNDAY WILL PULL
MORE AIR FROM THE INTERIOR, PROMOTING VERY DRY CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY FAR FROM THE COAST.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN MONDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES FURTHER ONSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY
WITH INTERIOR HIGHS GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE 90S BY MID WEEK. ANY
HEATRISK CURRENTLY APPEARS MINOR AT MOST. A BUILDING INVERSION AND
WEAKER WINDS WILL LIKELY ALLOW A VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER TO BEGIN
REFORMING ONSHORE, THOUGH OFFSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY
LIMIT THE EXTENT OF ANY STRATUS. THERE REMAINS ESSENTIALLY NO CHANCE
OF RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. /JHW
AVIATION
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF AERODROMES. BREEZY
SURFACE NW WINDS AROUND 10-20 KTS FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS, WITH
OCCASSIONL STRONGER GUSTS THIS AFETRNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
INTERIOR WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH BREEZY
NNW WINDS IN UKI BETWEEN 14/22Z AND 15/05Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
EASE THIS EVENING; HOWEVER, SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY PERSSIST IN
KCEC OVERNIGHT.
SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCES SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOPING AGAIN
AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND VICINITY LATER THIS EVENING. EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS IMPACTING KACV BETWEEN 15/10Z AND 15/16Z, WITH LOW CLOUDS
ERODING AND MIXING OUT AFTER SUNRISE AS NW WINDS INCREASE AND AID IN
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES. /ZVS
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH
FRIDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE SUSTAINED WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS, WHILE MODERATE TO STRONG BREEZES FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE BREEZES NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
TONIGHT AS A PROGRESSIVE AND DRY COLD FRONT MOVES TROUGH. THIS WILL
FOLLOWED BY STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
ACROSS ALL WATERS. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 KTS ARE LIKELY FOR SOUTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO ON FRIDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING NEAR
COAST. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS, BUT
NOW THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
BY SATURDAY, NORTHERLY WINDS ACCELERATE ACROSS ALL WATERS WITH NEAR-
GALE TO GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS AND PERSSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE (60-90%)
CHANCES OF GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHER WATERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR
ZONES 450 AND 470 FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT. LARGE, STEEP WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL SPREAD OVER
ALL ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK./ZVS
FIRE WEATHER
BUILDING NORTH WINDS EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND
WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE COMING DAYS. WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST NEAR SHORE BUT ALSO ALONG INTERIOR RIDGES AND WELL
ALIGNED VALLEYS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL APPROACH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL FOCUS CLOSER TO
SHORE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY
PULL IN MORE MOIST MARINE AIR. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
SUBDUED WITH ONLY MODERATE MINIMUM RH AROUND 30 PERCENT. THAT SAID
WINDS WILL ALSO SLIGHTLY TAMP DOWN OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY CLOSER TO
80 PERCENT AT LOW ELEVATIONS AND 50 PERCENT HIGHER UP THROUGH
SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT MORE ONSHORE BY SUNDAY. STRONG AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL CONTINUE, BUT THE FOCUS OF STRONGER WINDS WILL SHIFT
CLOSER TO THE RIM OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY, ESPECIALLY IN LAKE
COUNTY. WINDS WILL PULL IN DRIER AIR BY SUNDAY, SUPPORTING VERY DRY
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS IN EASTERN MENDOCINO, TRINITY, AND LAKE
COUNTIES WITH MINIMUM RH NEAR 15 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL
CONTINUE TO WORSEN WITH UPPER ELEVATION RECOVERIES VERY POOR BY
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT VERY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH INCREASING DAY TIME TEMPERATURES.
ALL THAT SAID, FUELS GENERALLY RETAIN A SPRING CHARACTER. ALTHOUGH
ERC VALUES ARE FORECAST TO JUMP UP NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR MAY,
GRASSES REMAIN MOSTLY GREEN FOR ALL LOCATIONS BUT SOME OF THE
HOTTEST VALLEYS IN LAKE AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES. HEAVIER FUELS ARE
RETAINING MODERATE MOISTURE. DESPITE CRITICAL WEATHER VARIABLES,
FUELS ARE VERY UNLIKELY TO SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE AT THIS TIME, HENCE
A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR THESE CONDITIONS IN
LAKE, TRINITY, OR MENDOCINO COUNTIES. THIS EVENT, HOWEVER, WILL
LIKELY PUSH FUEL TOWARDS A DRIER AND MORE CONDUCIVE STATE FOR FIRE
IN THE COMING WEEKS. /JHW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450-470.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR PZZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ455.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
VISIT US AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTPS://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTPS://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE THE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/EKA/ZONEMAP.PNG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page