954
FXUS66 KEKA 150745
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1245 AM PDT FRI MAY 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY NORTH WINDS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OTHERWISE MILD
AND SUNNY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS WARMER CONDITIONS
BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
-STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEKEND.
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG SHORE AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
OVER INTERIOR. PEAK GUSTS TODAY NEAR 30 KTS AND PEAK GUSTS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY NEAR 40 KTS.
-GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS, EVEN ALONG SHORE, THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND AND WARMING THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
A BROAD, WEAK LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA IS
PROJECTED TO SEE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF DRIZZLE EARLY EACH MORNING,
MOSTLY AROUND COASTAL PROTECTED VALLEYS OF THE KING RANGE AND
HUMBOLDT BAY.
WHILE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TO THE NORTH, A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THIS
WEEKEND. A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND ALIGN ALONG SHORE
INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD, BUT STALL,
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BRING UNUSUALLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS MOST HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF
THE INTERIOR. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST NEAR 30 MPH IN EXPOSED AREAS
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH 40 MPH GUSTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE STUBBORNLY CONSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON,
THOUGH GUSTS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS OR DAMAGE. THE WIND WILL PULL MARINE
INFLUENCE FAR INLAND AND KEEP LOW LEVELS WELL MIXED, GENERALLY
LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE MID 60S AND 70S. COASTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOL DESPITE WINDS KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR.
LONG TERM
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN RESPONSE WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY NEAR
SHORE ON SUNDAY, THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO LAKE COUNTY
WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AT HIGH ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE RIM OF THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME, NORTH WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL
PULL MORE AIR FROM THE INTERIOR, PROMOTING VERY DRY CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY FAR FROM THE COAST.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
FURTHER ONSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WITH INTERIOR HIGHS
GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE 90S BY MID WEEK. ANY HEATRISK CURRENTLY
APPEARS MINOR AT MOST. A BUILDING INVERSION AND WEAKER WINDS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW A VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER TO BEGIN REFORMING ONSHORE,
THOUGH OFFSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY LIMIT THE EXTENT OF
ANY STRATUS. THERE REMAINS ESSENTIALLY NO CHANCE OF RAIN OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. /JHW&JLW
AVIATION
IN GENERAL, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR MORE WIND PROTECTED
COASTAL AREAS, SUCH AS AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY WHERE COASTAL STRATUS
HAS A CHANCE TO DEVELOP. IF STRATUS DOES DEVELOP ALONG PROTECTED
COASTAL AREAS, MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. ANY COASTAL
STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE AS NORTH WINDS STRENGTHEN
INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
TERMINALS IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. /JLW
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TODAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO.
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE SUSTAINED WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS, WHILE
MODERATE TO STRONG BREEZES FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO MODERATE BREEZES NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO TONIGHT AS A
PROGRESSIVE AND DRY COLD FRONT MOVES TROUGH. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS WILL FORM ACROSS ALL WATERS. GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 40 KTS ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO TODAY WITH
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR SHORE. A GALE WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS, BUT NOW THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
BY SATURDAY, NORTHERLY WINDS ACCELERATE ACROSS ALL WATERS WITH NEAR-
GALE TO GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE (60-90%)
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 450
AND 470 FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. LARGE, STEEP WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL SPREAD
OVER ALL ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK./ZVS
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450-470.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR PZZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ455.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR
PZZ455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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