817
FXUS66 KEKA 152315
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
415 PM PDT FRI MAY 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY NORTH WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OTHERWISE MILD
AND SUNNY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN WITH WARMER CONDITIONS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
-STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD EVERY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG SHORE AND OVER HIGH PEAKS IN THE INTERIOR. PEAK GUSTS FRIDAY
NEAR 30 KTS AND PEAK GUSTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NEAR 40 KTS.
-GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS EVEN ALONG SHORE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND WARMING THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC HAS HELPED
INCREASE NORTH WINDS TODAY ALONG SHORE. THIS HES BROUGHT AFTERNOON
GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH IN EXPOSED AREAS AND HAS FULLY MIXED OUT ANY
COASTAL STRATUS. MARINE AIR PUSHING INLAND HAS SLIGHTLY COOLED
CONDITIONS DESPITE THE HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE IS ALREADY HELPING
TO GENERATE MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25 KTS ALONG
SHORE. THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND
ALIGN ALONG SHORE INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD BUT STALL OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BRING UNUSUALLY STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS AGAIN ON SATURDAY ALONG SHORE AND ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR.
NORTH WINDS WILL GUST NEAR 40 MPH IN EXPOSED AREAS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE STUBBORNLY CONSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD IN THE
AFTERNOON, THOUGH GUSTS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA WITH LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS OR DAMAGE. THE WIND WILL
PULL MARINE INFLUENCE FAR INLAND AND KEEP LOW LEVELS WELL MIXED,
GENERALLY LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE MID 60S AND 70S FOR
SATURDAY. COASTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOL DESPITE WINDS KEEPING
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE STRONGEST NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SACRAMENTO
VALLEY IN RESPONSE WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY NEAR SHORE ON
SUNDAY, THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO LAKE COUNTY WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH AT HIGH ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE RIM OF THE SACRAMENTO
VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME, NORTH WINDS SUNDAY WILL PULL MORE AIR FROM
THE INTERIOR, PROMOTING VERY DRY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FAR FORM THE
COAST.
LONG TERM
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN MONDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FURTHER ONSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VERY DRY WITH INTERIOR HIGHS GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE 90S BY MID
WEEK. ANY HEATRISK CURRENTLY APPEARS MINOR AT MOST. A BUILDING
INVERSION AND WEAKER WINDS WILL LIKELY ALLOW A VERY SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER TO BEGIN REFORMING ONSHORE, THOUGH OFFSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT
WILL GENERALLY LIMIT THE EXTENT OF ANY STRATUS. MODELS DIVERGE ON
THE PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK. WILL SEASONAL BUT DRY ZONAL FLOW IS MOST
LIKELY, ROUGHLY 30 PERCENT OF MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH THAT COULD
BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA AROUND NEXT WEEKEND. /JHW
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF AERODROMES. BREEZY SURFACE
NW WINDS AROUND 10-20 KTS FOR THE TERMINALS, WITH STRONGER GUSTS UP
TO 30 KTS THIS AFETRNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EASE
AFTER 16/03Z. IN ADDITION, INCREASING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS LIKELY AFTER 16/06Z
WITH VCSH FOR KCEC, AND AFTER 16/09Z FOR KACV. SATURDAY, EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY TO GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. /ZVS
MARINE
STRONG TO GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40
KTS ARE LIKELY FOR SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY DIMINISH AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE
TROUGH. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL RAPIDLY ACCELERATE IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR
THE COAST. EXPECT NEAR-GALE TO GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS DEVELOPING
ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSSIST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND DOWNWIND OF
CAPE MENDOCINO. GUSTS FROM 34 TO AROUND 45 KTS ARE LIKLEY, WITH THE
STRONGEST IN THE LEEWARD OF CAPE MENDOCINO. A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM SATURDAY AFTENOON THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
BUILDING NORTH WINDS EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND
WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR
SHORE BUT ALSO ALONG INTERIOR RIDGES AND WELL ALIGNED VALLEYS. WINDS
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON HAVE ALREADY SHOWN GUSTS OVER 30 MPH, THOUGH
MARINE INFLUENCE HAS KEPT RH AND TEMPERATURES MODERATE. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL APPROACH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL FOCUS CLOSER TO SHORE SATURDAY.
WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY PULL IN MORE MOIST MARINE
AIR. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES SUBDUED WITH ONLY MODERATE
MINIMUM RH AROUND 30 PERCENT. THAT SAID WINDS WILL ALSO SLIGHTLY
TAMP DOWN OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY CLOSER TO 80 PERCENT AT LOW
ELEVATIONS AND 50 PERCENT HIGHER UP THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT MORE ONSHORE BY SUNDAY. STRONG AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL CONTINUE, BUT THE FOCUS OF STRONGER WINDS WILL SHIFT
CLOSER TO THE RIM OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY, ESPECIALLY IN LAKE
COUNTY. WINDS WILL PULL IN DRIER AIR BY SUNDAY, SUPPORTING VERY DRY
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS IN EASTERN MENDOCINO, TRINITY, AND LAKE
COUNTIES WITH MINIMUM RH NEAR 15 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL
CONTINUE TO WORSEN WITH UPPER ELEVATION RECOVERIES VERY POOR BY
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT VERY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH INCREASING DAY TIME TEMPERATURES.
ALL THAT SAID, FUELS GENERALLY RETAIN A SPRING CHARACTER. ALTHOUGH
ERC VALUES ARE FORECAST TO JUMP UP NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR MAY,
GRASSES REMAIN MOSTLY GREEN FOR ALL LOCATIONS BUT SOME OF THE
HOTTEST VALLEYS IN LAKE AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES. HEAVIER FUELS ARE
RETAINING MODERATE MOISTURE. DESPITE CRITICAL WEATHER VARIABLES,
FUELS ARE VERY UNLIKELY TO SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE AT THIS TIME, HENCE
A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR THESE CONDITIONS IN
LAKE, TRINITY, OR MENDOCINO COUNTIES. THIS EVENT, HOWEVER, WILL
LIKELY PUSH FUEL TOWARDS A DRIER AND MORE CONDUCIVE STATE FOR FIRE
IN THE COMING WEEKS. /JHW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ450-470.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
PZZ450.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ455.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
PZZ470.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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