021
FXUS66 KEKA 160739
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1239 AM PDT SAT MAY 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY NORTH WINDS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OTHERWISE MILD
AND SUNNY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
-STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEKEND.
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE SHORE AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS OF THE INTERIOR. PEAK GUSTS TODAY AND SUNDAY NEAR 40 KTS.
-GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS, EVEN ALONG SHORE, THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND AND WARMING THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
A BROAD, WEAK LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA IS PROJECTED TO
SEE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS OF DRIZZLE EARLY EACH MORNING, MOSTLY AROUND COASTAL
PROTECTED VALLEYS OF THE KING RANGE AND HUMBOLDT BAY.
WHILE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TO THE NORTH, A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THIS
WEEKEND. A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND ALIGN ALONG SHORE AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD, BUT STALL, OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
BRING UNUSUALLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST
AND ACROSS MOST HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE INTERIOR. NORTH WINDS
WILL GUST NEAR 40 MPH IN EXPOSED AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE STUBBORNLY CONSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD IN THE
AFTERNOON, THOUGH GUSTS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA WITH LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS OR DAMAGE. THE WIND WILL
PULL MARINE INFLUENCE FAR INLAND AND KEEP LOW LEVELS WELL MIXED,
GENERALLY LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE MID 60S AND 70S. COASTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOL DESPITE WINDS KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE STRONGEST NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SACRAMENTO
VALLEY IN RESPONSE WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY NEAR SHORE ON
SUNDAY, THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO LAKE COUNTY WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH AT HIGH ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE RIM OF THE SACRAMENTO
VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME, NORTH WINDS SUNDAY WILL PULL MORE AIR FROM
THE INTERIOR, PROMOTING VERY DRY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FAR FORM THE
COAST.
LONG TERM
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN MONDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FURTHER ONSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VERY DRY WITH INTERIOR HIGHS GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE 90S BY MID
WEEK. ANY HEATRISK CURRENTLY APPEARS MINOR AT MOST. A BUILDING
INVERSION AND WEAKER WINDS WILL LIKELY ALLOW A VERY SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER TO BEGIN REFORMING ONSHORE, THOUGH OFFSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT
WILL GENERALLY LIMIT THE EXTENT OF ANY STRATUS. MODELS DIVERGE ON
THE PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK. WILL SEASONAL BUT DRY ZONAL FLOW IS MOST
LIKELY, ROUGHLY 30 PERCENT OF MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH THAT COULD
BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA AROUND NEXT WEEKEND. /JLW&JHW
AVIATION
GENERALLY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOW LEVEL VFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR
DEL NORTE, WHERE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE DAY. MVFR
CEILINGS, ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE, COULD OCCUR ALONG
THE HUMBOLDT COAST AS WINDS BECOME CALM BEFORE SUNRISE. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND LOCALIZED GUSTS UP
TO 40 KNOTS. /JLW
MARINE
STRONG TO GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO.
EARLY THIS MORNING, WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY DIMINISH AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL RAPIDLY ACCELERATE IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH TODAY WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT NEAR-GALE TO GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER WATERS
AND DOWNWIND OF CAPE MENDOCINO. GUSTS FROM 34 TO AROUND 45 KTS ARE
LIKELY, WITH THE STRONGEST IN THE LEE OF CAPE MENDOCINO. A GALE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. A GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
BUILDING NORTH WINDS EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND
WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR
SHORE BUT ALSO ALONG INTERIOR RIDGES AND WELL ALIGNED VALLEYS.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL APPROACH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL FOCUS CLOSER TO SHORE
TODAY. WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY PULL IN MORE MOIST MARINE AIR.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES SUBDUED WITH ONLY MODERATE
MINIMUM RH AROUND 30 PERCENT. THAT SAID WINDS WILL ALSO SLIGHTLY
TAMP DOWN OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY CLOSER TO 80 PERCENT AT LOW
ELEVATIONS AND 50 PERCENT HIGHER UP THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT MORE ONSHORE BY SUNDAY. STRONG AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL CONTINUE, BUT THE FOCUS OF STRONGER WINDS WILL SHIFT
CLOSER TO THE RIM OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY, ESPECIALLY IN LAKE
COUNTY. WINDS WILL PULL IN DRIER AIR BY SUNDAY, SUPPORTING VERY DRY
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS IN EASTERN MENDOCINO, TRINITY, AND LAKE
COUNTIES WITH MINIMUM RH NEAR 15 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL
CONTINUE TO WORSEN WITH UPPER ELEVATION RECOVERIES VERY POOR BY
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT VERY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH INCREASING DAY TIME TEMPERATURES.
ALL THAT SAID, FUELS GENERALLY RETAIN A SPRING CHARACTER. ALTHOUGH
ERC VALUES ARE FORECAST TO JUMP UP NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR MAY,
GRASSES REMAIN MOSTLY GREEN FOR ALL LOCATIONS BUT SOME OF THE
HOTTEST VALLEYS IN LAKE AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES. HEAVIER FUELS ARE
RETAINING MODERATE MOISTURE. DESPITE CRITICAL WEATHER VARIABLES,
FUELS ARE VERY UNLIKELY TO SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE AT THIS TIME, HENCE
A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR THESE CONDITIONS IN
LAKE, TRINITY, OR MENDOCINO COUNTIES. THIS EVENT, HOWEVER, WILL
LIKELY PUSH FUEL TOWARDS A DRIER AND MORE CONDUCIVE STATE FOR FIRE
IN THE COMING WEEKS. /JHW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ450-470.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ450.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ455.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ470.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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