505
FXUS66 KEKA 162314
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
414 PM PDT SAT MAY 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY NORTH WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OTHERWISE MILD
AND SUNNY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN WITH HOTTER CONDITIONS
BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
-STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE DAY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH.
-GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS EVEN ALONG SHORE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO PEAK
TODAY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. CONTRASTING WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN US, THIS HAS FORM A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT PARALLEL TO
SHORE. PERSISTENT STRONG WINDS HAVE BUILT ACROSS THE THE INTERIOR
AND ALONG SHORE WITH SOME ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. THOUGH
STUBBORNLY CONSISTENT GUSTS HAVE STAYED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITH LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS OR DAMAGE. THE WIND HAS PULLED
MARINE INFLUENCE FAR INLAND AND KEEP LOW LEVELS WELL MIXED,
GENERALLY LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE MID 60S AND 70S.
COASTAL CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED COOL DESPITE WINDS KEEPING SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR. CLEAR SKIES AND DRIER AIR TONIGHT MIGHT ALLOW FOR
SOME COOLER OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS, BUT WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY
REMAIN TO HIGH TO ALLOW FOR ANY FROST FORMATION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE STRONGEST NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SACRAMENTO
VALLEY IN RESPONSE WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY NEAR SHORE ON
SUNDAY, THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO LAKE COUNTY WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH AT HIGH ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE RIM OF THE SACRAMENTO
VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME, NORTH WINDS SUNDAY WILL PULL MORE AIR FROM
THE INTERIOR, PROMOTING VERY DRY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FAR FORM THE
COAST. COASTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES FURTHER ONSHORE AND WEAKENS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY
WITH INTERIOR HIGHS GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE 90S BY THURSDAY. ANY
HEATRISK CURRENTLY MINOR AT MOST. A BUILDING INVERSION AND WEAKER
WINDS WILL LIKELY ALLOW A VERY SHALLOW AND WEAK MARINE LAYER TO
BEGIN REFORMING ONSHORE, THOUGH OFFSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL
GENERALLY LIMIT THE EXTENT OF ANY STRATUS AND ALLOW IT TO CLEAR
DURING THE DAY. SOME MODERATE NORTH WIND WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SHORE
BUT BE MUCH WEAKER FOR THE INTERIOR.
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK. MOST MODELS SHOW A
TROUGH OF SOME DESCRIPTION MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC AROUND NEXT
WEEKEND WITH A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST, THOUGH
THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF EITHER IS UNCERTAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE NEAR CERTAIN, BUT MOISTURE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. ABOUT 25% OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE
REST REMAIN DRY.
AVIATION
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BREEZY SURFACE NW WINDS AROUND 15-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS 25-35 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING, DIMINISHING TO 5-15 KTS
AFTER 17/06Z. HOWEVER, BREEZY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT
CEC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
(LLWS) AROUND 30-35 KTS AT 1000-2000 FEET IS EXPECTED FOR KACV AND
KUKI BETWEEN 6Z AND 15Z WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
NORTH-NORTWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. /ZVS
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND ACROSS
THE WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN, PEAKING ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE GUSTS AROUND 34-45 KTS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
ZONES, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWNWIND OF CAPE MENDOCINO. A GALE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES. STEEP TO VERY STEEP,
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH THE INCREASING WINDS,
PEAKING TO 11-17 FEET ON SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAX SLIGHTLY AND THE STRONGEST
WINDS MOVES OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS
ACROSS THE WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK WITH STRONG TO GALE FORCE
GUSTS WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS./ZVS
FIRE WEATHER
STRONG NORTH WINDS HAVE BUILT ALL ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THOUGH MOST GUSTS HAVE REMAINED BELOW 40 MPH, SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE BEEN STUBBORNLY CONSISTENT ABOVE 15 MPH IN EXPOSED AND WIND
CHANNELED AREAS. MARINE INFLUENCE AND MIXING HAVE SO FAR KEPT
CONDITIONS MODERATE WITH HIGHS ONLY NEAR 70 AND RH GENERALLY OVER 30
PERCENT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT MORE ONSHORE BY SUNDAY. STRONG AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL CONTINUE, BUT THE FOCUS OF STRONGER WINDS WILL SHIFT
CLOSER TO THE RIM OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY, ESPECIALLY IN LAKE
COUNTY. WINDS WILL PULL IN DRIER AIR BY SUNDAY, SUPPORTING VERY DRY
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS IN EASTERN MENDOCINO, TRINITY, AND LAKE
COUNTIES WITH MINIMUM RH NEAR 15 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL
CONTINUE TO WORSEN WITH UPPER ELEVATION RECOVERIES VERY POOR BY
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN EARLY WEEK BUT VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH INCREASING DAY TIME TEMPERATURES.
ALL THAT SAID, FUELS GENERALLY RETAIN A SPRING CHARACTER. ALTHOUGH
ERC VALUES ARE FORECAST TO JUMP UP NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR MAY,
GRASSES REMAIN MOSTLY GREEN FOR ALL LOCATIONS BUT SOME OF THE
HOTTEST VALLEYS IN LAKE AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES. HEAVIER FUELS ARE
RETAINING MODERATE MOISTURE. DESPITE CRITICAL WEATHER VARIABLES,
FUELS ARE VERY UNLIKELY TO SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE AT THIS TIME, HENCE
A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR THESE CONDITIONS IN
LAKE, TRINITY, OR MENDOCINO COUNTIES. THIS EVENT, HOWEVER, WILL
LIKELY PUSH FUEL TOWARDS A DRIER AND MORE CONDUCIVE STATE FOR FIRE
IN THE COMING WEEKS. /JHW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ450-455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ470-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
VISIT US AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTPS://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTPS://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE THE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/EKA/ZONEMAP.PNG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page