444
FXUS66 KEKA 170722
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1222 AM PDT SUN MAY 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY NORTH WINDS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OTHERWISE MILD
AND SUNNY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN WITH WARMER CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS COMING WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
-STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE DAY, TODAY INTO
MONDAY, WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH.
-GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS, EVEN ALONG SHORE,
THROUGH EARLY THIS COMING WEEK.
-SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, BEFORE WARMING
THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WHILE A TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH TO THE
NORTH, A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION. A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND ALIGN ALONG
SHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING UNUSUALLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY ALONG THE COAST AND
ACROSS MOST HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE INTERIOR. NORTH WINDS WILL
GUST NEAR 40 MPH IN EXPOSED AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
STUBBORNLY CONSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH
GUSTS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS OR DAMAGE. MARINE INFLUENCE WILL DAMPEN FOR
MOST INTERIOR AREAS OF INTERIOR MENDOCINO, TRINITY AND LAKE
COUNTIES, LEADING TO LOWER MIN RHS IN THOSE AREAS TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MORE SEASONAL TO COOL TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THIS COMING WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INLAND TODAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TODAY, THE STRONGEST NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY NEAR SHORE.
WINDS IN LAKE COUNTY ARE ANTICIPATED TO GUST OVER 40 MPH AT HIGH
ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE RIM OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. AT THE SAME
TIME, NORTH WINDS WILL PULL MORE AIR FROM THE INTERIOR, PROMOTING
VERY DRY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FAR FROM THE COAST. COASTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES FURTHER ONSHORE AND WEAKENS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY
WITH INTERIOR HIGHS GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE 90S BY THURSDAY. ANY
HEATRISK CURRENTLY MINOR AT MOST. A BUILDING INVERSION AND WEAKER
WINDS WILL LIKELY ALLOW A VERY SHALLOW AND WEAK MARINE LAYER TO
BEGIN REFORMING ONSHORE, THOUGH OFFSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL
GENERALLY LIMIT THE EXTENT OF ANY STRATUS AND ALLOW IT TO CLEAR
DURING THE DAY. SOME MODERATE NORTH WIND WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SHORE
BUT BE MUCH WEAKER FOR THE INTERIOR.
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK. MOST MODELS SHOW A
TROUGH OF SOME DESCRIPTION MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC AROUND NEXT
WEEKEND WITH A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST, THOUGH
THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF EITHER IS UNCERTAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE NEAR CERTAIN, BUT MOISTURE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY
FOR TERMINALS IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS PICKING UP THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. EARLY THIS MORNING, WINDS WILL REMAIN HIGHER
ALOFT, LEADING TO LLWS FOR ACV AND UKI. NORTHERLY GUSTS FROM 25
TO 35 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED.
MARINE
NEAR-GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS COMING WEEK AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS (PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON). GALE FORCE GUSTS AROUND
34-45 KTS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL ZONES, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
DOWNWIND OF CAPE MENDOCINO. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
COASTAL ZONES. STEEP TO VERY STEEP, HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD WITH THE INCREASING WINDS, PEAKING TO 11-17 FEET TODAY.
BY MONDAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS MOVING OFF SHORE. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK WITH STRONG TO
GALE FORCE GUSTS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS./ZVS
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT MORE ONSHORE TODAY.
STRONG AFTERNOON WINDS WILL CONTINUE, BUT THE FOCUS OF STRONGER
WINDS WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE RIM OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY,
ESPECIALLY IN LAKE COUNTY. WINDS WILL PULL IN DRIER AIR TODAY,
SUPPORTING VERY DRY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS IN EASTERN MENDOCINO,
TRINITY, AND LAKE COUNTIES WITH MINIMUM RH NEAR 15 PERCENT.
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN WITH UPPER ELEVATION
RECOVERIES VERY POOR BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
EARLY WEEK BUT VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH INCREASING DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES.
ALL THAT SAID, FUELS GENERALLY RETAIN A SPRING CHARACTER. ALTHOUGH
ERC VALUES ARE FORECAST TO JUMP UP NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR MAY,
GRASSES REMAIN MOSTLY GREEN FOR ALL LOCATIONS BUT SOME OF THE
HOTTEST VALLEYS IN LAKE AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES. HEAVIER FUELS ARE
RETAINING MODERATE MOISTURE. DESPITE CRITICAL WEATHER VARIABLES,
FUELS ARE VERY UNLIKELY TO SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE AT THIS TIME, HENCE
A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR THESE CONDITIONS IN
LAKE, TRINITY, OR MENDOCINO COUNTIES. THIS EVENT, HOWEVER, WILL
LIKELY PUSH FUEL TOWARDS A DRIER AND MORE CONDUCIVE STATE FOR FIRE
IN THE COMING WEEKS. /JHW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ450-455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ470-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
VISIT US AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTPS://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTPS://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE THE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/EKA/ZONEMAP.PNG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page