937
FXUS66 KEKA 172304
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
404 PM PDT SUN MAY 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE OFF OVERNIGHT.
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
-STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT WEAKEN FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK WITH ONLY MODERATE NORTH WINDS CLOSE TO SHORE.
-GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS EVEN ALONG SHORE THROUGH
THE WEEK.
-CONDITIONS WILL WARM THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE INTERIOR
PEAKING NEAR 90.
DISCUSSION
STRONG NORTH WINDS HAVE PEAKED TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC CONTRASTING WITH A PASSING TROUGH INLAND HAS FORMED
A SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT PARALLEL TO SHORE. GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH HAVE
PERSISTED ALL DAY NEAR SHORE AND ACROSS EXPOSED AREAS OF THE
INTERIOR. SUCH WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE NEAR SHORE LATER TONIGHT BUT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AROUND THE RIM OF THE SACRAMENTO
VALLEY, ESPECIALLY IN LAKE COUNTY. OTHERWISE STRONG MIXING HAS KEPT
SKIES CLEAR THOUGH TEMPERATURES MODERATE, MOSTLY IN THE 70S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. WIND OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE ANY FROST
FORMATION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BEGIN TO WEAKEN BUT MOVE MORE ONSHORE
MONDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH WEAKER NORTH
WINDS WITH SOME MODERATE GUSTS TO 20 MPH STILL PUSHING IN RIGHT
ALONG SHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. INTERIOR WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO A
MORE TERRAIN CONTROLLED REGIME. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY TOP
OUT AROUND 90 FOR THE INTERIOR ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL CONSTITUTE
ONLY A MINOR HEATRISK FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOTTER TEMPERATURES
WILL HELP REFORM A MARINE INVERSION. ANY STRATUS AND FOG, HOWEVER,
WILL MOST LIKELY BE VERY SHALLOW AND MIX OUT QUICKLY DURING THE DAY.
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WEAK TROUGH IN THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST, BUT HAVE IT DELAYED UNTIL
AFTER NEXT WEEK. RATHER MOST MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
WEAKENING, ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO DROP, THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A TROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF MODELS (80%) CURRENTLY REMAIN DRY. /JHW
AVIATION
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BREEZY SURFACE NW WINDS AROUND 15-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS 25-35 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING, DIMINISHING TO 5-15 KTS
AFTER 18/05Z. HOWEVER, BREEZY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT
CEC THROUGH AT LEAST 18/11Z. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) AROUND 30-
35 KTS AT 1000-2000 FEET IS EXPECTED FOR KUKI BETWEEN 5Z AND 11Z
WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AT THE SURFACE. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND INCREASE INTO MONDAY OVER THE
INTERIOR EXPOSED RIDGES. THIS WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NW
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. /ZVS
MARINE
GALE FORCE GUSTS AROUND 34-45 KTS EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL ZONES, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWNWIND OF CAPE MENDOCINO.
STEEP TO VERY STEEP, HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WITH THE
INCREASING WINDS, PEAKING TO 11-17 FEET THIS AFETRNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. TONIGHT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAX SLIGHTLY AND THE
STRONGEST WINDS MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE
WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK WITH STRONG TO GALE FORCE GUSTS
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS. GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY
STEEP SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PERSISTS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY. /ZVS
FIRE WEATHER
STRONG NORTH WINDS HAVE PEAKED TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH OVER HIGH TERRAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NEAR
SHORE. HUMIDITY HAS DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH MINIMUM RH OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT FOR THE DRIEST INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE RIM OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND IN
LAKE COUNTY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY MONDAY EVENING AND TRANSITION TO
MORE GENTLE TERRAIN WIND THROUGH THE WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VERY DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING NEAR 90 FOR THE INTERIOR
BY THURSDAY.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ450-455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ470-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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